You’ll miss all spring when the robins come

  It was the dullest moment in market sentiment that I have ever experienced. I don’t know if this feeling has something to do with the fact that people around me are gradually turning 40. In terms of behavior and concept, these middle-aged people have become more conservative and pursue stability.
   attitude Some friends around me even used the money they had saved over the past ten years to pay off their mortgages ahead of schedule. Mainland China is now in a low interest rate environment, and people have relatively strong expectations for higher inflation in the future. In theory, what investors should do is to increase the leverage level of assets, but panicky conservative tendencies seem to have the upper hand.
   According to the latest macro data, in the first half of 2022, resident deposits will rise very rapidly, and among them, time deposits will grow particularly rapidly. I asked my acquaintances who work in commercial banks, and the microscopic situation is consistent with the macroscopic statistics. People’s view of financial management seems to have returned to 17 or 18 years ago, and they have focused their attention on which method of deposit can obtain higher interest. If so, it is better to buy savings-style treasury bonds! Its interest is close to 4% (simple interest), and its security is absolutely excellent. Compared with ordinary R2 wealth management products, the liquidity is also better.
   Do you still remember that on a warm and cold morning, you walked quickly to the office building, and suddenly noticed that the number of uncles and aunts queuing outside the bank by the gate was four or five times that of usual? That was probably the day the savings-style bonds were sold.
   However, in the field of investment and financial management, perhaps the most cautious conclusion is the conclusion of the collective rationality of the elderly. What they were doing was right within a fairly limited “framework” but wrong overall.
  The harm of funds to investors
   I suspect that the reason why people abandon the stock market is that the investment income of stock funds since the beginning of the year is too bad. It is said that the overall floating loss of this product is 600 billion yuan. According to data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, there are about 700 million fund investors in mainland China. In other words, the average loss per person was more than 800 yuan.
   That’s a pretty staggering number.
   Moreover, what makes a considerable number of fund holders feel pain is that they entered the market last year when stock funds were at their peak. Some of them paid a lot of money to buy products managed by popular fund managers Too much subscription fee, but the result is a unilateral loss.
   Conversely, this is a prisoner’s dilemma for stock fund market participants.
   When the stock market is good, fund companies are desperately launching products. In order to gain an advantage in the competition, the publicity of fund companies must imply to investors that the funds they sell will have better returns in the future. But the fact is that after the peak of each fund’s issuance, it is faced with an overall decline in the stock market. This cyclicality results in more new investors being attracted during peak fund offerings and more market cursers during stock troughs, making it harder to educate the market to attract investors the next time around.
  The Stock Market
   This year , the world we face appears to be more complex than expected. For long-term investors, though, the situation isn’t bad.
   Both the A-share market in the mainland and the Hong Kong market have many companies with good quality, and their business is not disadvantageous within the expected range. The most important thing is that the stock prices of these companies are already quite cheap. They are like shells left on the beach when the sea ebbs, and you can collect a basket by bending down.
   Of course, in order to avoid risks, collectors should also avoid over-concentrated investment and all-or-nothing. Running in small steps is probably the best way to go. In the stock market, it is best not to follow the choices of the vast majority of people. Because, as Buffett said, by the time the robins come, you’ll miss spring.
  Real Estate A
   long time ago, I bought a house in Beijing – my mother forced me to buy it. She paid the deposit for the house first, then called me who was on a business trip and told me to return the deposit to her when I returned to Beijing. At that time, the stock market was just right, and I was very angry. I felt that her decision delayed me from becoming a stock god. But the fact is that I escaped the stock market disaster in 2008 precisely because I wanted to buy a house at that time.
   And this year, my daughter-in-law decided to buy a house in Shanghai. Since the beginning of the year, I have sold about 90% of my stocks. I don’t know if the advice of “listen to mother” still works this time.
   In any case, the order of “Mom” made me pay attention to the real estate situation in several cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. In fact, they are much more interesting than the news reports. Under the various control and regulatory policies of relevant departments, the prices of real estate in first-tier cities and real estate in second- and third-tier cities have shown very obvious trends.
   In complex situations, economic growth is truly reflected in real estate prices in second- and third-tier cities. In first-tier cities, especially Shanghai, the situation is just the opposite. Residential property prices are rising, and the increase is very obvious.
   Why is this? This is likely to be a manifestation of the continued differentiation of the wealth class. Faced with rising industrial investment risks, financial market turmoil, and expectations of rising inflation in the future, the urban affluent have no choice. They will most likely invest their money in the real estate market, especially those with excellent living conditions and school districts. Lot of houses.
   Therefore, if your asset status allows and you can withstand a certain level of leverage, on the premise of housing for living and not speculation, buying a house in a good location in a first-tier city may be a good choice to resist long-term inflation.