Communications industry trends throughout the year: look at the 5G sky, foot fiber on the ground

The annual report season is not only the most busy time of listed companies IR, but also many researchers “pain and happy” days, too many companies reported the same period of disclosure, is expected than expected or lower than expected? What is the plan for the next year? Such as the kind of problem, provoke the nerves of each secondary dog.
Speaking of the communications industry, first look at the two shares K line feelings:
Main base station antenna, the world’s top five Beijing letter communications, the annual report is not out – fly straight down three thousand feet.
The best performance of domestic fiber suppliers fly fly fiber optic cable, the performance is also good, after the annual report is also miserable.
Both the trend is exactly the same, uniform action, into the water posture is perfect. Like to find the law of the people will want to ask: the communications industry is not to die?
For an industry, I used to “capture the thief first capture the king”, the basic performance of the leading industry reflects the trend, which is pretty close. If you consider the industrial chain, there is milk is the mother, see the main gold on the right, after all, “river dry river dry.”
First conclusion: the revolution has not been successful, comrades need to work hard. Look at the 5G sky, foot 4G field.
One, all beings phase
What happened to the operator? Look at how to say the annual report.
2016 China Mobile revenue 708.4 billion, China Telecom 352.3 billion, China Unicom 240.98 billion. Big Brother mobile first throne stable as Taishan, in a leading position. Net profit of 108.7 billion, is to let the telecommunications (18 billion) and China Unicom (150 million) catch up, accounting for 86% of the sum of the three. Excluding the proceeds of the disposal of the tower assets in 2015, in mind the move 10.5%, 11.7% of the net profit growth, China Unicom in the substantial investment can turn around or is good.
The number of users on China Mobile’s mobile users accumulated 849 million, telecommunications and China Unicom together only 479 million, mobile still let Telecom and China Unicom look back. Fixed-line users, although the telecommunications fixed-line force early, but the gap with the mobile continue to decrease, the annual net increase in the number of telecommunications and China Unicom and more, in the mobile communications market hit the invincible hand, just a few years Become the second of fixed-line broadband, for the princes of the various terrified.
Look at this year’s spending plan, the mobile is still lavish, limelight to do, “where some, but also to add him to him superfluous, no, even his all have to take over.” Matthew effect embodied most vividly. However, Aspect came, the three operators of capital spending continued to shrink, compared to China Mobile -6%, telecommunications -8.1%, China Unicom -37.6%. Does it feel a little bit different?
Specific to the base station, this figure is even more terrible, the three operators plan to increase the number of 4G base stations fell nearly 50%.


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Look at the equipment manufacturers Big Brother Hua, 2016 annual report shows problems, and revenue innovation, but the profit growth significantly behind the increase in revenue.
At the same time, net cash flow from operating activities showed negative growth and asset-liability ratio increased year by year.
Specific to business. Although the operator business grew 23.6% year on year, compared to business, consumer business growth was lagging behind.
In addition to the operator’s business, other business growth rate also fell very much year on year (throwing changes in volume).
Second, the water less
From the operating data point of view, mobile mobile market in the mobile leader, the number of fixed-line users is also growing rapidly, a great catch up with the overall trend of winning the telecommunications. Saying that the world trend, will be a long time will be together, for a long time will be points. Previously the Three Kingdoms, and now is the anti-Cao – Telecom and China Unicom in many areas of cooperation. Do not match the day or merger or split.
Mobile revenue and net profit has made an overwhelming advantage, thanks to the first to get the 4G license, eat a big cake of 4G, fixed network through the price war is also excellent customer, and kill the strategy to implement the very it is good. The most vulnerable is undoubtedly Unicom, so the covariance is also the most active, whether it is the relaxation of the spectrum or policy level, the state is strongly supported.
However, when the 4G penetration rate has been high, 5G at least 1 year to see the outcome, the three operators are cautious, continued the decline after the peak of 4G, compared to Telecom and China Unicom’s sharp decline in mobile down lowest. The total planned capital expenditure fell by 46.21 billion year on year, down 13% year on year, which may mean that the bitterness of the communications equipment manufacturers.
Li Liang, both parties explicitly requested to speed down the fee, the performance will be 2017 to bring some impact, the operator gradually pipeline. But it is still necessary to do, move 2017 capital expenditure plan, the transmission network this improved by 4.8%. Telecom said it was concerned about the international telecom Congress 5G standard development progress. China Unicom does not pay dividends, 5G reserves. Operators generally adopted a “high wall, wide grain, slow king” strategy.
For the equipment manufacturers, the head of the most say.
Reporter: would like to ask 2016 net profit growth of only 0.4%, 2017 there is no want to change your strategy to see the special market adjustment?
Meng night: Xu Gang just said, about 7% of the profit margins to our body and the status of the industry, I think it is reasonable. Their own business can not be separated from the external environment, if the customer’s economic situation is not good, the supplier’s economic situation is not good, partner economic situation is not good, it is difficult to be immune. From the company’s business operations, regardless of our high or low profit margins, will never change in the “deep beach, low weir” strategic choice. According to our business design this year, see the strengthening of the profit center of the power and responsibility to build. At the same time, will be the unit as a unit to strengthen resource investment to the smallest units of the project to ensure good health.
To sum up is less water. Different channels to confirm Huawei’s annual meeting this year, but also shows the urgency of the source cut.
Three, down expect
Read the facts, to derive the conclusion, summed up the environment is not good, Huawei is also lower expectations, the communications sector is no big opportunity.
In the Bible, “the sun is also good according to the people,” corresponding to the stock market is “wild lily also spring.” Although the operator slowed down the infrastructure investment, it does not mean that the sand.
Fixed network construction, China Unicom after two years to re-open the fiber Jicai, the first ladder scale of 4296 million core kilometers, last year this figure is more than 3000 million. Mobile has just released “2017 to 2018 non-skeleton-style ribbon cable mining (first batch) tender notice”, conservative assumptions all corresponding to 16 years of special cable purchase (certainly more than), also increased by 68.8% year on year, Far more than expected. At the same time radio and television 120 million broadband transformation will also pull the demand for fiber optic cable, the probability is long fly fiber optic cable (6869.HK) a stimulant.
Fiber laying is also inseparable from the optical network devices, “banana big banana peel is also large,” the truth, Enna Technology (0877.HK) and happy.
Wireless network, CITIC Group and the National Network to set up the country’s fourth operator in the wide mobile, the industry is expected to land in the first half, is expected to build 200,000 new base stations, the three major operators to reduce 437,000 base stations hit the pit back half, Base station antenna supplier Beijing letter communications (2342.HK), the development of the motorcycle (0947.HK) in the pit shed tears of Thanksgiving.
Communication equipment, if the radio and television into the backbone of the transmission network and access network construction, this part of the increase is very impressive, ZTE (763.HK) experienced a fine in the United States, also considered hard to come.
to sum up
5G has not yet arrived, but also received the Prime Minister down fee speed of the military order, Daikin main operators are frugal wait and see (except optical communications), the communications sector as a whole will not have a big market.
But the cake or to re-cut, the specific analysis of specific issues, or someone can eat meat. Is the so-called feng shui turn, when to my home ~.
Broadcasting and China Mobile as the two largest variables, it is certain to be concerned, if the sit or more than expected to be admiration.