Analyze the industry boom

➤ real estate: February major city housing price index continued gains, but the chain began to split, the new housing second and third line growth rate is greater than the first line, but second – hand housing prices in the rapid growth in the front line. January-February real estate development investment chain rose, the new construction area continued to grow, but the sales area fell sharply. March transaction area chain growth, concentrated in the third tier cities, February for sale area also rebounded.
February the main city housing price index continued gains, but the chain began to split, the new housing second and third line growth rate is greater than the first line, but second – hand housing prices in the rapid growth in the front line. Since November 16, after the introduction of the property market regulation and control policy since the slowdown, 17 years 1-2 months of real estate usher in a small spring, volume and price growth than expected. Among them, 70 large and medium-sized cities in the new housing price index in February rose 10.3%, but the February growth of 0.3% (0.2% on the previous period), which line, second line, third-tier cities in February were up 0.1%, 0.3% 0.4% (January values ​​were 0.0%, 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively). 70 large and medium cities second – hand housing price index rose 0.4% (0.3% on the previous period), of which line, second line, third – tier cities were up 0.9%, 0.5% and 0.3% (January were 0.5% % And 0.3%). Over the past year, the new residential prices, the first line or higher than the second and third tier cities, an increase of 20.7%, respectively, 16.3% and 6.6%. While the second – hand housing prices year on year growth of 22.8%, respectively, 13.8% and 3.8%, indicating that the policy control 17 years after the first – tier cities in the new housing prices control in a reasonable range, while the short – term demand for second – hand housing is significantly greater than the supply, , Parts of the area rose very fast.
January-February real estate development investment chain rose, fixed assets investment in the chain fell, housing new construction area in December chain growth. January-February the completion of the national real estate development investment of 9,854.34 billion yuan, up 7.19% qoq (-2.33% on the previous period). January-February housing new construction area of ​​172 million square meters, the chain rose 10.33% (12.18% on the previous period). 2017 new supply has been shrinking. Contrary to real estate development investment, the investment in fixed assets fell 1-26% qoq in the first half of the year (mainly on the previous period of 7.08%), mainly due to the decrease in capital expenditure during the Spring Festival, but still 8.9% GDP growth target of 6.5% target value of nearly 2.4 percentage points. Showing the capital expenditure boom is still high.
During the Spring Festival, January-February sales area fell, March transaction area chain growth, concentrated in the third-tier cities, February for sale area also rebounded. February sales of commercial housing area of ​​124 million square meters, the chain fell 30.81% (on the value of 35.68%). 30 large and medium-sized cities commercial housing transaction area, a total turnover of 1,998.81 million square meters in March, the chain growth rate was 85.1% (on the value of -16.3%). While the March transaction weekly data show a substantial increase of 34.08% chain, which line, second line, third-tier cities in the fourth quarter of March, respectively, the transaction area was 8.18%, 21.35% and 72.24% (the previous period were 41.04%, 44.25% 62.60%). Showing the impact of large and medium-sized cities under the influence of limited credit policy, housing market activity than the same period last year, although a significant decline. But in late February and March purchase tide, February despite the trend of recovery, but demand is still high. 2017 after the National Association of two, with Beijing, Guangzhou, Xiamen, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, representatives of the hot city have upgraded real estate control policies. Short-term hot spots City real estate market activity suffered heavy losses. But the second round of the control policy of the marginal impact is limited, the impact on the plate will be reduced, the performance of the first quarter of plate performance. Regulatory policies introduced or can reduce the market heat, ease the price rise trend, to inventory and transaction volume is mainly concerned about the three or four lines of the city. A second-tier city prices short-term temporary stability, trading volume in the doldrums, but there are still medium-term demand, housing prices to enhance the high certainty.

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➤ Retail: Total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 9.5% in January-February 2017, and the first-month growth rate in the past 10 years was less than 10%. From January to February, the retail sales of 100 large-scale retail enterprises in China increased by 2.2% year on year, and the growth rate was 7.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. Consumption and retail sales of goods is expected to increase.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.5% year-on-year in January-February, with a growth rate of 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate was 8.1% (except for special instructions, Nominal growth), the growth rate over the same period last year dropped 1.5 percentage points.
By the small displacement car purchase tax halved preferential policies will be early this year to exit and business promotion efforts and other factors, consumers to catch up with the preferential policy of the last train to choose ahead of the car, the end of last year, strong car sales, consumption overdraft and other effects Earlier this year, the cumulative sales of cars for the first time in many years negative growth. From January to February, car sales fell 1%, up 5.4% year-on-year. It is estimated that the auto growth rate down the total retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate of about 0.7 percentage points. Excluding the auto category, the total retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate was basically the same as the same period last year.
Consumption upgrade category related products to accelerate growth. January to February, the above units of sports entertainment category, cultural office supplies (including computer products), books and magazines increased by 19.5%, 13.4% and 11.5%, respectively, over the same period last year to speed up 3.5,3.9 and 4 Percentage points. Above the unit of construction and decoration materials, furniture, although the sales growth rate has declined, but still maintain about 12%.
➤ home appliances: “home appliances four” in the domestic air-conditioning sales for seven consecutive months of rapid growth, domestic sales growth remained high, the refrigerator and washing machine year-on-year growth rate has rebounded, LCD TV sales fell year on year. January-February 2017 national social consumer goods home appliance retail sales rose 5.6% (7.9% over the same period last year). The main driving force comes from the good performance of home air conditioning. Benefit from the early sales of low value, home air conditioning sales in January to February reached 20.118 million units, an increase of nearly 40%, since August last year to February this year for seven consecutive months of rapid growth, an average increase of 35%. Simultaneous refrigerators, washing machines and TV are up year on year. Among them, LCD TV by the same period last year, the higher base, 1-2 month down 5.2 percentage points year on year, has been 6 consecutive months less than 10% growth rate. Living room TV scene needs have been replaced by personal computers and other scenes, long term, TV network and Internet TV concept trends down.
February 2017 air-conditioning production in the stability of more than 10 million units, while sales continued high-speed growth, including domestic sales growth rate since 2010, a new high since the export growth rate of nearly 4 months continued to decline. February 2017 household air-conditioning production were 10.315 million units (the previous period of 999.6 million units), affected by the base effect, up significantly to 66.2% (17.1% on the previous period). The average yield in March was more than 10 million units. Sales growth of up to 1026.2 million units (the previous period of 9,199,000 units), an increase of 71.6% (16.8% on the previous period), of which domestic sales of 504.5 million units, an increase of 115.6% (4.56 million last year, up 61.5% (The previous period 5.36 million units), an increase of 43.4% (-5.5% on the previous period), the number of exports to maintain a high level. Demand and supply side of the two-wheel drive domestic sales continued to rise, domestic sales and exports at the same time heavy volume. February household air-conditioning stocks for the 988.6 million units, an increase of 62.4% (67.77% on the previous period), domestic sales ratio of 1.9 (January value of 2.2), due to sales boom, steady growth in production, inventory remained high. But the domestic inventory than to maintain the stability of the same period over the same period, for the second quarter of the sales season to make up inventory, look forward to the real estate turnover driven by the further release of corporate performance.
➤ car: February auto sales year-on-year growth picked up significantly, passenger cars in SUV is still growing, commercial vehicle sales growth significantly increased, the national auto dealers confidence index rebound. New energy vehicles in February production and sales than expected.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data, in February the country’s total car sales of 1.94 million (2.52 million on the previous period), an increase of 22.66% (0.23% on the previous period), of which 84.2% share of passenger car sales, passenger car sales 163.3 Million, an increase of 18.6% (-0.5% on the previous period), commercial vehicle sales of 301,000, up 11.3% (12.1% on the previous period). Commercial vehicle sales by the base effect, and downstream demand for the two-wheel drive, the monthly growth rate of up to 50.1%. As the 2019 passenger car purchase tax raised 2.5%, and the car ownership base is large, accounting for 85% of the total sales of passenger car callback makes the car sales growth rate dropped significantly, and infrastructure investment recovery and overload control policy on the capacity of the Restrictions, the growth rate of commercial vehicles than expected, but the contribution of total sales growth is small, is expected to short-term adjustment in the automotive industry sales, we recommend investors concerned about the construction of hot-driven commercial vehicle recovery.
Passenger car segmentation in February, car and SUV sales year-on-year growth, MPV and cross-type sales continue to decline year on year, the national dealer inventory rebounded in March, the national auto dealers confidence index rebound. MPV sold 148,000, up 15.2% year on year (on the value of -21.1%); SUV sales of 672,500, year-on-year, year on year, Increased to 40.7% (12.2% on the previous period), cross-type sales of 43,000, down 25.11% (on the value of -28.4%). SUV sales rose or released due to last year’s Spring Festival holiday in February base effect. 1.6t following vehicle purchase tax from 5% to 7.5% of the policy, to some extent squeeze the automobile market demand. In February the national auto dealer inventory depth in January after the rebound, rose sharply to 1.71. Up 21% year on year (3% on the previous period). March national dealer confidence index of 140, the chain rose to 11.1% (on the value of -18.7%), an increase of 5.3% (5.9% on the previous period), indicating that the supply side of the market still has strong short-term confidence, but long- Inflection point or at the end of the year or 18 years.
New energy car sales in January after the subsidy policy adjustment, production and sales year after year were cliff-like decline in February sales than expected. February 2017, new energy vehicle production and sales were completed 17,972 and 17596, respectively, over the same period last year increased by 15.5% and 30.3%. From January to February of 2017, 25213 new energy vehicles were sold and 24,781 units were sold, down by 33.5 and 30.5% respectively over the same period of last year. February 2017 new energy vehicles production and sales year on year growth. February 2017 pure electric vehicle production and sales were completed 15327 and 13919, respectively, year on year increase of 32.3% and 49.5%. Pure electric vehicles as new energy vehicles, mainly sales models, in recent years, the proportion of the market share increased, sales continued to grow. January’s new energy automotive market in the subsidies for slipping, the impact of the sale of new energy vehicles under the influence of the downturn. At present, many provinces and cities the latest new energy vehicles to promote the subsidy policy has been gradually released, pure electric car sales have been warmer. February 2017 plug-in hybrid car production and sales were completed 2645 and 3677, respectively, year on year decline of 33.5% and 12.4%. February China’s new energy automotive market, plug-in hybrid cars continued in January decline, both production and sales decline. Although the performance is not gratifying, but with the new new energy vehicles subsidy policy landing, plug-in hybrids compared to pure electric vehicle stronger endurance advantage, the future plug-in hybrid models market share is expected to increase , Rapid growth in sales can be expected.
➤ food and beverage: high-end liquor prices high window period, second-line liquor prices rose overall. Raw milk supply and demand pattern is improving, the domestic fresh milk prices fell slightly short-term, is expected to stabilize the medium-term recovery.
Liquor, the first line of liquor to enjoy the demand for high season and brand awareness of the dividend. As of March 31, No. 1 store data show: first-line liquor prices rose in March, 53 degrees Flying Maotai price of 1299 yuan / bottle, since the beginning of the price rose 8.34%; 52 degrees Wuliangye price 899 yuan / bottle, since the beginning Prices rose 8.44%. Second-line liquor since the beginning of the price performance differentiation, 52 degrees small confused cents as early low-cost strategy, the price is now significantly higher 41.18%, and 52 degrees Luzhou pits 197 price gap is not far. While the Blue Dream Blue rose 4.38%, the remaining category prices stable. With the Spring Festival season in the past, Maotai not only in the amount of control, more continuation of the Spring Festival sales offensive, the introduction of more valuable collection of packages. Bargaining power to further enhance. Five years did not increase the ex-factory price of Maotai, dealers in the process of improving the full price, price increases and profitability is also greater. Wuliangye in the price and Maotai basic to maintain the same proportion of change. We can see the first two white wine show the ability to grow steadily.
Dairy, the original milk prices fell slightly, the domestic dairy supply and demand pattern is basically stable, moderate moderate rise.
Domestic milk prices have been stable at the beginning of the year, after the Spring Festival production recovery, the price short-term decline. As of March 22, the main producing areas of the average price of fresh milk was 3.53 yuan / kg, the chain fell 0.28% year on year, the domestic fresh milk prices have been stable for 7 weeks in the past two years high, the price showed a strong season Sex, mainly due to enter the winter, part of the milk production area of ​​cold weather production, while near the Spring Festival consumption season, the downstream began to stocking, and the Spring Festival after the price of fresh milk with the slowdown in the weather, the output will be released, the price will fall further.
GDT auction overall volume and price rise. March 21, 2017, the global dairy auction site (GDT) the end of the 184th auction, GDT index rose 1.7%, of which the price of whole milk powder 2855 US dollars / ton, up 2.9% over the previous period, skim milk powder prices To $ 1,948 / tonne, down 10.1% from the previous period.
The auction of milk powder supply increased significantly: the auction of the largest supply of 24,423 tons, 1.7% higher than the previous. Which skim milk powder supply increased by 9%; whole milk powder increased by 48% year on year; anhydrous butter, butter and other dairy products supply fell to varying degrees. The increase in supply of whole fat and skim milk powder was mainly due to the narrowing of New Zealand weather and the narrowing of the previous year’s milk production (-0.7% YoY in January), the lowest since October last year.
Whole milk powder prices in the case of substantial increase in supply, still remain slightly upside, or that the market demand for the demand side to increase, pre-plummeted after some buyers began to approach. Skim milk powder or by the EU high inventory factors, demand is expected to remain weak, the continuation of the crash market, but the decline has narrowed. From the trend point of view, the main export of raw milk in addition to the United States