Who would have thought that the French team would be eliminated by the Swiss team!
In the 1/8 finals of the 2020 European Cup, the French national football team, the 2018 World Cup champion and the 2016 European Cup runner-up, failed to hold on at the last minute of the penalty shootout and was eliminated by the Swiss national football team. And the Swiss team, which defeated the Gaul Roosters, has never made it into the quarterfinals of the European Cup before…
However, looking back, no matter what the cup, it seems that every game is indispensable for the so-called big black horse and big upset. , Is unexpectedness the essence of competitive sports! In fact, football is indeed one of the most uncontrollable and unpredictable events in major sports. After all, scoring is very accidental. There are too few goals per game and so many draws.
Former professional goalkeeper and statistician Chris Anderson has done statistics and found that in football betting, the football team preferred by the punter only has a 52% win rate; in contrast, the figure for baseball is 60%. American football And basketball are as high as 68%. It is really difficult to predict football winning percentage.
In fact, at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Goldman Sachs tried to make predictions (bravely titled “Forecasting Unpredictable Things”). They designed a very advanced statistical model that took into account a full 53 variables and did it again. A public survey of more than 10,000 people in 27 countries was conducted. On this list, Brazil has 21% public win rate and 19% model win rate; Germany has 23% public win rate and 11% model win rate; Argentina has 8% public win rate and 7% model win rate; Spain has 11% The public win rate and 6% model win rate… As a result, Brazil did not enter the semi-finals, Argentina and Spain stopped in the top sixteen, and the German team-sorry, did not even survive the group stage. As for Croatia, which later won the runner-up (but was just eliminated by Spain in this European Cup), it was completely absent from this prediction list.
Of course, Goldman Sachs economists need not be ashamed, because this is completely their normal play. The University of Colorado researcher Roger Pilk Jr. analyzed various forecasts several years ago and found that various advanced statistical models, including Goldman Sachs, performed very poorly. How bad is it? You add up the worth of the players in a team and are more expensive than anyone else, so the accuracy rate will be higher…
After the 2015-2016 Premier League Leicester City won the championship, the fans and statisticians who were hit hard went to review the statistics. (Safford University’s model considered before the season that the probability of Chelsea being ranked ninth or lower was 0.2%, and the probability of West Ham United defeating Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal was 0.08%. Guess what?)
Statistics The family even conducted a quantitative analysis of the unpredictability of football-that is, how confident is the “strong” team that the “strong” team will defeat the “weak” team. It turns out that the Premier League’s 2015-2016 season is indeed the most unpredictable of the past 13 seasons, but there is no statistically significant difference from these 13 seasons…
And if you look at all of Europe, the Premier League is indeed the most unpredictable in the major leagues. Unpredictable, but the uncertainty of the British crown is even greater. The best prediction is the Spanish Super League, anyway, either Real Madrid, Barcelona or Atletico.
Moreover, this unpredictability is a long league, with 38 games (34 in the Bundesliga) to accumulate advantages. As for the World Cup and the European Cup, there are only 7 games (6 games before the expansion of the European Cup). The unpredictability is even higher, and there are often upsets. The “Danish fairy tale” in 1992 and the “Greek myth” in 2004 have been talked about so far. In 2016, Portugal won the European Cup, and the final Cristiano Ronaldo was injured but still won the game, which was also unexpected to many people. Presumably, this early game this morning will also circulate for a long time in the upset history. According to Chris Anderson’s estimation, the ratio of skill to luck in football can only be half and half. In this way, isn’t this an unfair sport? Maybe it is, but to be fair, this ball may not look good.
People love all kinds of sports, they must have their own reasons; and the reason why we like football, its contingency is also a very important part. Motivational stories of the three armies’ life and defeating the strong with the weak are often staged; intense scenes and stale scores can also make people hold their breath; and the hard-won goal will make our emotions burst out and experience. Strong emotional impact… The game is not over yet, everything can happen.