After 1 billion inoculation, what is the next step for China?

According to the data reported by the National Health Commission on the 20th, China’s new crown vaccine inoculation volume exceeded 1 billion doses on the 19th, reaching 1.010489 billion doses, becoming the first country in the world to receive 1 billion doses of new crown vaccine. Feng Duojia, president of the China Vaccine Industry Association, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that the continuous improvement of China’s vaccine production capacity and vaccination capacity is the result of the first time after the outbreak of the outbreak of vaccine research and development and vaccination planning. This milestone has not only effectively guaranteed the health and safety of the people, but also made great contributions to the global fight against the epidemic.”

40% vaccination rate before the end of the month, no suspense

On March 27 this year, the number of vaccination in China exceeded 100 million doses. Since then, vaccination has continued to accelerate, setting records repeatedly. On May 28, the domestic vaccination volume exceeded 600 million doses, from 500 million to 600 million, in only 5 days. This shocking speed continued for the international community, with more than 900 million doses on June 14 and over 1 billion doses on the 19th. It still took only 5 days.

Chen Xi, associate professor of global health policy and economics at Yale University, told the Global Times reporter that China‚Äôs 1 billion doses of new crown vaccine is an important milestone, but he is not surprised that this amount of vaccination is achieved so quickly, because it is not China’s previous goals are basically the same.

At a forum in early March this year, Academician Zhong Nanshan once revealed that China plans to increase the COVID-19 vaccination rate to 40% by the end of June this year. According to the statistics of the “Global Times” reporter, calculated based on two doses of vaccination per person, my country’s new crown vaccination rate is currently about 36%. If the current rate of vaccination continues, there is basically no suspense that the vaccination rate will reach 40% by the end of this month.

Chen Xi said that in the process of advancing the new crown vaccination, it is unexpected that China’s vaccine industry has made such rapid progress, not only the rapid expansion of production capacity, but also the technology is not limited to inactivated vaccines. As of the 6th of this month, China has 21 new crown vaccines in clinical trials, including 4 vaccines that are conditionally listed in the country, 3 vaccines have been approved for emergency use in China, and vaccines that have been approved for conditional marketing or emergency use. It covers multiple technical routes such as inactivated vaccines, recombinant protein vaccines, and adenovirus vector vaccines.

For China, which has a population of 1.4 billion, vaccination of 1 billion doses of vaccine is only the first step in building an immune barrier. Feng Duojia said that my country is expected to complete at least 70% of the target population before the end of this year. Zhong Nanshan believes that to achieve herd immunity, if the vaccine protection rate is 70%, China needs 83.3% vaccination rate; if the vaccine protection rate is 80%, China needs 72.9% vaccination rate.

From 40% to 80%, what are the challenges?

It is worth noting that as the vaccination rate moves from 40% to 70%-80%, China will still encounter some new challenges. In countries with high vaccination rates, such as Israel and the United States, there has recently been a “bottleneck period” for vaccination. For example, the vaccination rate in Israel increased slowly after reaching 60% in mid-to-late May.

Chen Xi analyzed that the rate of increase in China’s vaccination rate from 40% to 80% may be slower than before. This is also a situation encountered in many countries, but the rate of slowdown will vary from country to country. “I think the rate of vaccination in China will be lower than that of other countries and will still maintain a high willingness to administer vaccines.” Chen Xi said. On the one hand, because the epidemic situation in China’s surrounding areas has not been effectively controlled, the risk of overseas imports has increased. The urgency of vaccination; on the other hand, in the autumn and winter, the new crown virus is more likely to come back from death, and sporadic cases in the country are inevitable, which will also increase the willingness of the people to vaccination.

Feng Duojia said that there is no need to worry about China’s vaccination rate slowing down, because the domestic people’s epidemic prevention concept and trust in the government determine that everyone will only become more and more enthusiastic about vaccination. “Now it may not be the question of when to complete the 80% vaccination rate, but the question of’how to achieve the ideal immunity of more than 80% of the population after the completion of the connection.”

It is worth noting that at the beginning of this month, the relevant state departments have approved the new crown inactivated vaccines of Sinopharm Zhongsheng Beijing Institute and Beijing Kexing Zhongwei to be used for vaccination of people aged 3-17 years if necessary. This also means that my country The population base that can be vaccinated with the new crown vaccine has further expanded, contributing to the rapid increase in vaccination rates.

Will there be a situation of “following and discarding before”?

Since my country launched the new crown vaccine in January this year

Since the large-scale vaccination, the first batch of vaccinators has been vaccinated for nearly 6 months. Some people have begun to worry that the vaccine may not provide sufficient protection, and there will be a situation of “following and discarding.

“Because the vaccination rate in our country is very fast, this situation will not happen,” Feng Duojia told the Global Times reporter that in the observation of the vaccine for nearly a year, no inflection point of the decline in efficacy has been found, which shows that the vaccine is protected. The duration of effectiveness will be longer.

Shao Yiming, a researcher of China’s disease control, said before that, in preliminary judgment, about half of the people still have a certain degree of defense against the new coronavirus 6 months after vaccination. At present, the most important thing is to complete the first vaccination and establish an immune barrier as soon as possible. Shao Yiming also emphasized that no matter to what extent the immunity of the vaccinated population has subsided, people who have received the vaccine are completely different from those who have not. People who have been vaccinated, even if the antibodies are not detectable at all, still have a large number of immune memory cells in their bodies. As long as they encounter viruses, they will have a strong immune basis.

At present, many vaccine manufacturers such as Kexing Zhongwei and Kangsino Biological are conducting enhanced injection tests. However, according to the “New Coronavirus Vaccination Technical Guidelines (First Edition)” issued by the National Health Commission, booster immunization is not recommended at this stage. Feng Duojia said that a variety of factors should be considered whether or not to strengthen the immunization, including the duration of the vaccine’s effectiveness, the degree of virus mutation, whether some people have obtained the necessary immunity after completing the immunization process, and the recurrence of the epidemic in local areas should also be considered. “Boosted immunization is not a’fixed combination, and the timing and necessity are uncertain,” Feng Duojia said, but in any case, my country has carried out research on vaccine booster injections, and boosted immunization strategies can be initiated at any time if necessary.