The Absurd Truth Behind Trump’s Tariff Plan: Built on Academic Fraud?
We are witnessing history unfold—but not the kind anyone expected. On April 7, Donald Trump issued a frantic ultimatum to China:
“Yesterday, China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs. If China does not cancel them by April 8, the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff starting April 9.”
There’s just one problem: Trump got the facts wrong.
First, China announced its countermeasures on April 4, not “yesterday.” Second, Trump seems to believe that slapping another 50% tariff will force China to surrender—ignoring the fact that existing U.S. tariffs (already at 54%) have failed to break Beijing’s resolve. If 54% didn’t work, why would 104%?
The backlash has been swift. U.S. markets tumbled, and even Elon Musk publicly criticized Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, the architect of these tariffs. But here’s the real shocker: Navarro’s entire economic doctrine is built on academic fraud.
Part 1: How a Fake “Expert” Shaped U.S. Trade Policy
The Rise of Peter Navarro
Back in 2016, Trump—a political outsider with no deep policy team—relied on his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to find economic advisors. Kushner, in a move straight out of Amazon Prime policymaking, searched for bestselling economics books and stumbled upon Navarro’s “Death by China.”
The book, a hyperbolic anti-China manifesto, argued that Beijing’s trade practices were “killing” America and called for military containment and aggressive tariffs. Trump loved it, calling it “right on the money,” and promptly hired Navarro as his White House trade czar.
The Ron Vara Scandal
But there was a catch.
In Navarro’s books and papers, he frequently cited a mysterious “China expert” named Ron Vara, described as a Harvard-trained economist and Gulf War veteran. Scholars, however, soon discovered something bizarre: Ron Vara didn’t exist.
Australian professor Tessa Morris-Suzuki traced the name back to Navarro’s own surname—“Ron Vara” is simply “Navarro” rearranged. It was a fictional alter ego, used to lend fake credibility to his arguments.
When confronted, Navarro dismissed it as a “joke.” But jokes don’t shape trillion-dollar trade wars.
Part 2: Loyalty Over Competence—The Collapse of Trump’s Trade Strategy
Navarro’s Blind Loyalty
Despite his academic fraud, Navarro remained a Trump loyalist. In 2024, he was sentenced to four months in prison for defying Congress over the January 6 investigation—yet Trump rewarded him with a second-term appointment as trade advisor.
A Policy Built on Delusion
Now, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” are back, but the world isn’t buying it.
- China isn’t backing down. The Commerce Ministry responded: “The U.S. is doubling down on mistakes. If they escalate, we will retaliate.”
- Markets are panicking. Investors see no real strategy—just bluffing and bluster.
- Allies are skeptical. Europe, Japan, and even U.S. businesses are bracing for economic chaos.
Part 3: Why China Won’t Surrender
History shows that China doesn’t fold under pressure.
- 1937: Japan invaded—China fought back.
- 1950: The U.S. pushed to the Yalu River—China counterattacked.
- 2018: Trump launched a trade war—China held firm.
Today, with the world’s largest industrial base and a military rivaling America’s, Beijing has no reason to cave. Trump’s threats are empty because:
- Tariffs can’t kill China’s economy. They just accelerate decoupling.
- China has leverage—$3 trillion in reserves, dominance in critical minerals, and a domestic market bigger than the U.S.
- The world is watching. If China stands firm, others (Europe, ASEAN) may follow.
His net worth shrank by more than $30 billion in 2 days, and Musk, the world’s richest man, head of the U.S. government’s efficiency department, and Trump’s “close comrade-in-arms”, finally couldn’t sit still……
Musk’s request for Trump to revoke reciprocal tariffs was unsuccessfulNavarro: He’s a car seller
On April 7, local time, the Washington Post, citing two sources, reported that over the past weekend, Musk, the head of the efficiency department of the U.S. government and the richest man in the world, directly issued an appeal to U.S. President Trump to revoke the new tariff policy. According to the report, Musk’s attempt was unsuccessful.
Trump said on the 7th that he would not suspend the so-called “reciprocal tariff” policy. Trump told the media after talks with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on the same day that he had no immediate consideration for suspending tariff policy, and that leaders of many economies were seeking to negotiate with him. In his opinion, there is no contradiction between the imposition of tariff policy and the conduct of negotiations.
Meanwhile, on April 7, Musk shared a video of the late economist Milton Friedman on his social media account in which Friedman explained the benefits of international trade cooperation by analyzing the source of the materials used to make a simple wooden pencil.
Musk has also previously publicly criticized Navarro, Trump’s chief trade adviser and supporter of tariffs. On April 5, he said on the social platform “X” that Navarro has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University as a bad thing, which leads to a lack of wisdom due to conceit. While attending a party event in Florence, Italy, virtually on April 5, Musk also called for Europe and the United States to move towards zero tariffs, effectively establishing a free trade zone between the transatlantic and also facilitating the movement of people.
In response to Musk’s criticism, Navarro responded in an interview with Fox News on the 6th. In response to Musk’s attack, White House trade adviser Navarro used the phrase “he’s a car seller” to describe Musk as a businessman who defends his personal interests and does not care about the American auto industry. In retorting to Musk, Navarro said: “We’re more concerned about having the Detroit factory make American brand cars with American engines.” ”
It is worth noting that in the US stock market crash on April 3 and 4, the market value of the seven largest US technology stocks wiped out by $1.6 trillion, and the wealth of the tech rich also shrank significantly. According to the data of the Bloomberg rich list on the 6th, Musk’s net worth has shrunk by more than $30 billion (about 220 billion yuan) in the past two days, and the net assets of Amazon founder Bezos and Zuckerberg, the founder of “Yuan” company, who rank second and third on the list of the world’s richest people, have also evaporated by $23.5 billion and $27.3 billion respectively. The world’s top three richest people have lost more than $80 billion in net worth in the past two days.
Tesla’s sales fell 13% in the first quarterSales in Europe and the U.S. plummeted, while sales in China rose
Recently, Tesla released its global production and delivery report for the first quarter of 2025.
According to the report, Tesla’s global production in the first quarter of this year was 362,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. Tesla officials attributed the decline to weeks of production disruptions caused by Model Y production line upgrades at four factories around the world. However, some analysts pointed out that the weakness on the demand side is the deeper problem.
During the same period, Tesla’s global deliveries also fell 13% year-on-year to 336,700 units, far below Wall Street’s expectations of 390,000 units, and even failed to meet the most pessimistic forecast of 353,000 units, the lowest quarterly delivery volume since the second quarter of 2022.
Among them, the main models Model 3 and Model Y delivered 323,800 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, accounting for more than 95% of the total sales; New models such as the Cybertruck were sluggish, with only 12,800 units delivered.
Specifically, Tesla suffered a Waterloo in the European market. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla’s sales in 31 European countries in January ~ February 2025 will be 26,619 units, a year-on-year decrease of 43%. Especially in the German market, Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s support for the German far-right party “AfD” directly triggered a collective boycott by consumers, resulting in Tesla’s sales in Germany plummeting by 71%, with only 2,706 units sold. In Norway, a market with an EV penetration rate of more than 90%, Tesla’s sales also fell by 12%, squeezing out the top three by Volkswagen and Toyota. According to data released by the data platform of French automakers and sellers, Tesla’s sales in France decreased by 36.8% year-on-year in March; According to relevant data from Sweden, Tesla’s sales in the country in March decreased by 63.9% year-on-year, and sales in the first quarter of this year decreased by 55.2% year-on-year; In Denmark, Tesla’s sales in the first quarter fell by 56% year-on-year; According to the Dutch Automobile Dealers Association, Tesla’s sales fell 55.3% year-on-year in March, while the Dutch electric vehicle market as a whole grew by 7.9% in the same period.
New AutoMotive, a research firm, pointed out that Tesla is both uncompetitive in terms of price competitiveness in Europe and has lost consumer trust due to the political stance of its leaders.
In the U.S. home market, Tesla’s performance is also not optimistic. After Musk became the head of the government’s efficiency department, his remarks and policies caused strong dissatisfaction among the American people, with frequent demonstrations against Tesla stores and even arson against Tesla cars. Musk himself admitted that “serving in the government comes at a cost to the company”. According to the data, Tesla’s sales in the U.S. market fell by more than 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, with a cumulative delivery of about 142,000 vehicles.
In contrast, the contrarian growth of the Chinese market became Tesla’s “only engine” in the first quarter. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory delivered 172,000 vehicles in the first quarter, of which 137,200 were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 40.75% of the total global sales, the highest in the first quarter since 2022. In March, the all-new Model Y topped domestic passenger car sales with 43,000 units.
It is reported that Tesla will release its financial report for the first quarter of 2025 after the close of trading on April 22, local time in the United States.
On April 8, local time, Tesla’s share price fell nearly 10% at one point, and the decline narrowed to 2.56% as of the close, with a total market value of $750.4 billion.
Since the beginning of this year, Tesla’s stock price has fallen by more than 40%, and its market value has evaporated by more than 540 billion US dollars (about 3.96 trillion yuan). Wells Fargo analysts even predict that Tesla’s share price could fall further to $130 per share, almost halving from current levels.
The global financial markets experienced a panic sell-off, and the rhetoric around tariffs sent U.S. stocks on a rollercoaster ride on Monday. On April 7, local time, a number of U.S. media reported that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said that U.S. President Trump is considering suspending tariffs on some countries for 90 days. But the White House did not confirm this, and Hassett said that “the president will make the decisions he wants to make.” The White House said any talk of a 90-day moratorium is “fake news.” After the White House refuted the rumors, U.S. stocks rose and retreated. A number of Wall Street people pointed out to Caijing that now the market lacks benchmarks to rely on, investors have evaporated trillions of dollars, and no one can tell where the bottom is, except for anxiety.
U.S. stocks fell 4.7% at the start of the session, and then concentrated on the usual one-month market volatility in about an hour and a half. At the end of the day, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. The Nasdaq closed up 0.1%, ending a two-game losing streak, the S&P 500 fell 0.23%, and the Dow fell 0.91%.
Michael Froman, chairman of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration, told Caijing that Trump’s tariffs are ostensibly aimed at achieving three goals: to stimulate the reindustrialization of the U.S. economy, increase federal government revenues and build strategic leverage with countries around the world. But these goals are inherently contradictory: If the policy succeeds in driving production back to the United States, it will see a decline in imports, which makes the roughly $6 trillion in revenue from tariffs unrealizable. If the U.S. gets a lot of revenue from tariffs, it means that the U.S. will continue to import a lot of products from other countries instead of producing them in the U.S. Trump’s grand experiment in self-sufficiency, however serious it may be, risks it not that it won’t succeed, but that it will backfire. Needless to say, there will be unintended consequences for Trump’s tariffs, and the secondary and subsequent effects may be more significant than the short-term economic impact.
Trump accused countries with economic and trade dealings with the United States of “plundering” the United States, so he imposed a general 10% tax on all products imported into the United States. Trump’s new tax rate hike will be raised on Wednesday (April 9) and will involve dozens of major trading partners, including a 20% increase in taxes by the European Union and a 34% increase by China. Although Vietnam and other countries are willing to eliminate import tariffs on U.S. products to avoid reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods. But White House senior adviser Navarro made it clear that this was not enough, stressing that “non-tariff deception” such as dumping and export subsidies lie at the heart of the problem. In his latest opinion piece, Navarro called the tariffs “not negotiations.”
Even though Trump has not actually taken any action on Canadian lumber, there is news that the United States is planning to more than double the existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports. Trump also threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on the United States from April 9 if countries that retaliated against U.S. tariffs by April 8 do not withdraw their tariffs on the United States. In addition, negotiations for all relevant talks will be terminated.
Trump told the media on the 7th that he has no consideration of suspending the tariff policy at the moment, and the leaders of many economies are seeking to negotiate with it. In his opinion, there is no contradiction between the imposition of tariff policy and the conduct of negotiations. U.S. government officials said on the 7th that more than 50 economies are currently in contact with the United States on tariff policy. But according to people familiar with the situation, the lack of real negotiating structures or two-way collaboration in these so-called contacts is frustrating.
Opponents began to gather
Global stock markets have wiped off about $10 trillion in market value, and criticism of him among Republicans and Trump supporters remains restrained. Wall Street broke its silence for quite some time. Wall Street representatives began to speak out against Trump’s tariff policy. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz stepped up on Monday to slam U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and said “angels and demons” were vying for influence as the White House plans to impose the toughest tariffs on U.S. trade in more than a century.
Mr. Cruz said on Monday’s podcast that while Mr. Trump’s tariffs were “important” — especially in bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. — it would be “very bad” for the U.S. if they weren’t used as a short-term negotiating tool but became permanent. Cruz said there was “a very heated debate” within the White House about how to move forward next.
On April 7, prominent hedge fund manager Bill Ackman publicly slammed Trump’s global tariff plan, calling it “wrong” and “excessive,” calling for a 90-day moratorium to give the new administration time to develop more strategic trade policies. Ackerman noted that the massive retaliatory tariffs imposed on countries around the globe on April 9 were a mistake “far beyond the levels of tariffs we are enduring.” The correct thing to do is to suspend for 90 days. Ackerman said trying to reach a deal at a time of market collapse would not help negotiations, and that whoever recommended the plan to Trump should be fired immediately.
Jamie Dimon, CEO (CEO) of JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the most influential voices on Wall Street, bluntly stated in his annual letter to shareholders that Trump’s tariffs will not only push up US inflation, but also drag down economic growth, and may even trigger a “stagflationary” crisis in the 70s of the 20th century.
Howard Marks, co-chairman of investment firm Oaktree Capital, said in an interview with the media: “We have moved from free trade, world trade and globalization to this system, which means that there will be significant restrictions on trade in all directions, and it is also a step towards isolationism in the United States.” Investor, lifelong Republican Stanley Druckenmiller, made a rare social media outcry in which he made clear his opposition to the U.S. government’s tariff plan: “I don’t support tariffs of more than 10 percent. Druckenmiller served at George Soros’s hedge fund as a boss to the current Treasury Secretary Bessant.Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb said on his social media account that the policy announced last week was flawed in both concept and practice, saying: “This will test the government’s choice between judgment and ideology and how they can resolve it over the weekend or in the coming days.” ”
Only accept “all nations come to court”
In an April 5 letter to Trump, Surin, the leader of Vietnam’s Communist Party, proposed to remove tariffs on all U.S. imports and requested that the 46% tariffs announced by Trump last week be postponed for at least 45 days, starting April 9. After the phone call with Surin on the 4th, Trump said that after his phone call with the Vietnamese leader, the Vietnamese side is willing to remove tariffs on American goods.
Subsequently, Vietnam also issued a statement saying that it was willing to negotiate with the United States on the matter of reducing import tariffs on American goods to zero, and proposed that the United States impose tariffs on Vietnamese goods at the same rate. Vietnam is also ready to import more products from the U.S. and encourages further U.S. investment in Vietnam. The two leaders agreed to continue negotiations and sign a bilateral agreement as soon as possible to concretize these commitments, the statement said. Trump has accepted Surin’s invitation to visit Vietnam in the near future.
But Navarro described Vietnam as “the poster child of non-tariff deception,” warning Vietnam not to dump shrimp into our markets and put good people out of work along the Louisiana coast.
According to media reports, the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to increase the tariff rate on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% as part of the annual review process, according to documents published and unpublished in the U.S. Federal Register. Carney promised to protect Canadian forestry workers if Trump made good on his threat of tariffs on Canadian softwood. Carney said it would be difficult for Canada to avoid a severe blow to its economic activity. If the U.S. continues its tariff policy and falls into a recession, it will be difficult for Canada to avoid a recession, but Canada can take steps such as reducing trade barriers between provinces and establishing trade relationships with other countries.
Maros Sevčović, commissioner for trade and economic security at the European Commission, said that the EU has proposed “zero-for-zero” tariffs on automobiles and industrial goods to the United States. The EU tariff on cars is currently 10%. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also made the announcement, saying: “We are also ready to take countermeasures to defend our interests.” ”
White House trade adviser Navarro said the EU’s offer to cut tariffs was a “good little start,” but the bigger problem was “cheating” in the non-tariff area. Navarro said: EU, give up your 19% VAT. Anyone who wants to talk to us should talk to us about lowering your NTBs.
Sevčović also said that the EU is willing to negotiate, but the solution must be beneficial to both parties. Despite the EU’s efforts, it has yet to see engagement that will lead to a solution acceptable to both the EU and the United States. Sevčović also stressed that the timing of counter-tariff measures is urgent.
The European Commission is proposing a 25% tariff on a range of U.S. imports, which is scheduled to take effect from May 16, according to an EU document. On the other hand, the European Commission removed American bourbon from its list of goods to be subject to counter-tariffs. Sevčović said on April 7 local time that the first part of the EU’s tariffs on the United States is scheduled to begin on April 15, and the second part of the tariffs is scheduled to begin on May 15. Sevčović also said that EU member states will vote on countermeasures against US steel and aluminum tariffs on April 9, and if passed, the two parts of EU tariffs on the US will begin on April 15 and May 15, respectively. The European Commission’s countermeasures will be adopted as long as they are not opposed by the 15 member states representing 65% of the EU’s population.
Sefčović said on the same day that the EU’s position is to consider all available options. The EU is ready to discuss zero-tariff measures, which apply not only to automobiles, but also to other industrial products. At the same time, VAT is an important source of revenue for EU member states, and the EU will not change the VAT regime.
Mr. Trump said he had rejected the European Union’s offer to waive tariffs with the United States, which he said earlier in the day, “no, it’s not enough” and that “they lied to us on trade.”
According to a number of media reports, the European Commission has proposed a 25% tariff on some American goods on Monday (April 7) in retaliation for the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum.
According to the media, this document lists dozens of product categories that the EU plans to target the United States, including diamonds, motorcycles, yachts, household appliances, safety glass, playing cards, tobacco, poultry and other agricultural products.
The EU’s counter-tariffs will take effect on April 15, with tariffs on most products not taking effect until mid-May and on soybeans and several nuts until Dec. 1, the document said.
Earlier in the day, the European Commission’s trade and economic security commissioner, Shevčovic, said member states were expected to approve the plan later this week.
Last month, the European Commission issued a communiqué announcing that it would impose countertariffs on 26 billion euros worth of US goods. In this regard, Shevčović mentioned that the EU will adjust this countermeasure according to the feedback of member states, so “the amount will not reach 26 billion euros.” ”
The latest reports say the European Union has removed bourbon, wine and dairy products from the counterlist. Previously, Trump threatened that if the EU did not lift the whiskey tariffs that would be imposed, the US would impose a 200% tariff on EU alcohol products.
According to media analysis, Trump’s threat is of particular concern to France and Italy in the European Union, where alcohol is the dominant industry in these two member states. At the same time, bourbon is also one of Trump’s “soft spots” because they are mainly produced in “red states” such as Kentucky.
Shares of Brown-Forman, the maker of Jack Daniel’s, closed slightly higher on the latest news. According to the data, the EU accounts for about 20% of the net sales of PAX Gate.
It should be noted that the European Commission’s latest list of US products is in response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, rather than the broader “reciprocal tariffs”. Currently, in addition to steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU also faces a 25% U.S. tariff on automobiles and a 20% equivalent tariff.
EU officials told the media that they want to leave room for negotiations between Europe and the United States, but they also want to show resolve. Shevčović believes that the two sides will eventually reach a trade deal, and “sooner or later we will sit down at the negotiating table with the United States and find a compromise acceptable to both sides.”
We’ve just witnessed one of the most intense weeks of confrontation between China and the United States in the last two decades:
On April 3, Trump announced a 34% “reciprocal tariff” on China on “Liberation Day”;
On April 4, China issued a series of “11 arrows” and resolutely countered by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating in the United States.
On April 5, U.S. stocks fell sharply in response, and Trump threatened to retaliate;
Late at night on April 7, Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff if China does not revoke it;
On April 8, China made its clear response: if you want to fight, you will accompany you to the end!
The head-to-head confrontation between the two superpowers stunned the whole world. Lianhe Zaobao described this as: “The bayonet is red”.
Why did China not back down from Wang’s naked threats and responded the fastest, strongest and most resolute in the world?
Why did the U.S. stock market crash and fall endlessly, but the big A stabilized its position in just one day and quickly turned red?
Behind the global shock, China has been preparing for today’s showdown for eight years.
Big A, steady.
Under heavy pressure, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext rose 1.83%.
Considering a series of fierce long and short games in the capital market, it is very rare to be able to stabilize.
This time, the country did not hesitate at all, and when it was time to save the city, it immediately took action, and the action was extremely fast:
The central bank announced that it would provide sufficient relending support to Central Huijin;
The State Administration of Financial Supervision raised the proportion of insurance funds invested in the stock market to a maximum of 50%;
China Chengtong and China Guoxin increased their holdings of Chinese stock assets;
A number of central enterprises announced repurchase and shareholding plans;
……
Among them, the most concerned is the bombshell – the birth of China’s version of the “equalization fund”.
The so-called equalization fund is a fund that irons out the irrational and violent fluctuations of the stock market by operating against the direction of the broader market index. The central bank’s statement was to the effect that:
Huijin is responsible for the investment, and the central bank promises to give money.
This is equivalent to providing unlimited liquidity support for the capital market, which is a “super move” to boost market confidence.
Many people have noticed that at the blockbuster press conference on September 24 last year, the governor of the central bank said that the equalization fund is being studied.
After half a year, the big move was introduced, which is one of the policy back-ups prepared for this day.
Outside of the capital markets, China is also quite prepared. The front-page article of the People’s Daily mentions:
In the future, according to the needs of the situation, monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts have left sufficient room for adjustment and can be introduced at any time;
There is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, special treasury bonds, etc., depending on the situation;
will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary efforts;
……
The trade war with the United States has been going on for 8 years, and we have a lot of experience in the struggle. For the new round of containment and suppression, the top management has long anticipated it, and has left a backhand.
Know in your heart and have a trick in your hand.
Under the calm response of the Chinese side, the roar of the 78-year-old blonde man last night seemed a little incompetent and furious:
“If China does not withdraw its additional 34% tariffs on top of its long-standing trade infringement by Tuesday (April 8), the United States will impose additional 50% tariffs on Chinese goods from April 9. ”
It can be seen that the king is already annoyed and angry.
But soon, his threat was met with a positive response: to the end!
What will happen if Wang really goes crazy and wants to impose another 50% tariff on China?
Possibly, it will point to complete decoupling.
You must know that after the announcement of this round of 34%, the average tax rate for Chinese products entering the United States has been as high as 67%, which is far more than the profit margin of most goods.
If another 50% is levied to reach 117%, perhaps 99% of trade will disappear. No matter how much tariffs are raised in the future, they are just numbers and have no practical meaning.
That would be a real war.
How will China respond? I noticed that accounts with state media backgrounds quoted sources as saying that China has prepared at least six big moves:
1. Significantly increase tariffs on U.S. soybeans, sorghum and other agricultural products
2. Prohibit the export of American poultry meat to China
3. Suspend U.S.-China fentanyl cooperation
4. Countermeasures in the field of trade in services
5. Prohibit the import of American films
6. Investigate the benefits of intellectual property rights of U.S. companies in China
Come and don’t get along, it’s rude. It is necessary to let the enterprises of Lao Mei also suffer losses, so that the voters can also feel the deep situation, and understand the king in order to wake up from his dream.
There’s one more card, that’s just my personal guess, could it be TW?
Judging by some recent developments in the strait, China has firmly occupied the strategic initiative.
He had threatened to impose a 150-200% tariff on us if something happened to TW, but the current tax rate is very close in terms of actual effect.
With complete decoupling, anything can happen.
Looking back today, 2025 is likely to be an important turning point in history.
The alternation of the old and the new in the world pattern has never been an easy road. From Britain and Spain hundreds of years ago, to the struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century, every time it is a sword and a bloody storm.
Although we insist on “valuing peace”, the United States and the United States, in line with the “Cold War mentality”, do not hesitate to hurt themselves to hold back China’s footsteps.
Lao Mei is the enemy of the whole world this time If you have a lot of help for the righteous and little help for the unjust, you are destined to have no good results.
China’s greater confidence is that the gap between China and the United States has actually been greatly narrowed over the past eight years.
In the past, we used to say that the three pillars of the United States to maintain hegemony are:
Technological hegemony, dollar hegemony, military hegemony
Just from the perspective of the technology field, when the trade war first started in 2018, Science and Technology Daily once listed 35 key technologies that were “stuck”, each of which was once a pain point made in China.
Today, 30 have been overcome, accounting for more than 85%:
In just seven years, the changes have been dramatic.
What doesn’t kill you will only make you stronger.
Both China and the United States are trying to break the old growth model. In the international environment, it is especially important to focus on doing your own thing well.
Whether “rising in the east and falling in the west” can become a reality, the answer may not be far away.
There is no doubt that we are witnessing history.
On April 7, Trump issued a final threat to China in an ultimatum: “Yesterday, China issued it34% retaliatory tariffs if China is not in 4Canceled before January 8, the United States will start from 4 An additional 50% tariff on China began on the 9th of January. ”
Judging by the threat, Trump seems to have become angry, hysterical, and his memory has been distorted because two mistakes were made in the tweet.
First, China’s countermeasures were issued on April 4. And not “yesterday”.
Second, Trump thinks that another 50% tariff hike will force China to kneel, but the problem is that Trump has already raised 54%.Tariffs, in fact, are no different from adding 104%, and there is basically no deterrent effect.
In fact, after the collapse of the past few days, Americans seem to be beginning to find that their president, who does not seem to be so good at tariffs.
Recently, a group of prominent figures from the tech and financial industries are heading to Mar-a-Lago to try to “educate Trump” about tariff policy. Even Musk is bombarding Navarro, the mastermind of the “reciprocal tariff” and director of the White House Trade Council.
Because, Trump’s tariff policies that affect hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world actually come from the hands of an academic liar who “makes friends out of nothing”, which is completely unreliable.
The story also begins with Trump’s first term.
Remember when Trump ran for president as a political amateur? Although the label of “amateur” is very attractive to red necks, the problem is that those who want to put forward their own policy guidelines for the presidential election also need to set up a professional team to advise the candidates on the direction of governance.
However, Trump is surrounded by businessmen, and the deep state is unwilling to cooperate with Trump, which leads to Trump’s choice and appointment of people, only nepotism or illness to go to the doctor.
For example, when he was electing an economic adviser, Trump really couldn’t find the right person, so he asked his son-in-law Kushner (Ivanka’s husband) to help find one, and he also made a request to be able to propose some economic policies that “make me look tough” and “I am punishing China”.
Trump may think, aren’t you Jews business-minded? The level of economics should not be bad, right? You also have a lot of economists in your circle, right?
But I never expected it! Kushner didn’t look for anyone from his circle at all, but went directly to the Amazon website, searched for economic books, and then sorted by sales, and a book came into view:
Death by China!
The book, which was a bestseller of the year, roughly meant to blame China for its “unfair” practices in the trade process, arguing that these practices were harmful to the United States and that China should be subject to tariffs.
You see, isn’t this just in line with Trump’s “make me look tough” and “I’m punishing China”?
So Kushner hastened to contact the author of the book: Peter ANavarro.
In fact, Navarro’s own resume is actually very bluffing.
Born in Massachusetts in 1949, Navarro fought in Vietnam and returned to Harvard University, where he earned a master’s degree in public administration and a doctorate in economics before becoming a teacher at the University of California, Irvine.
After entering the 21st century, the rise of China, the focus of Navarro’s research began to shift to China, perhaps because the psychological shadow on the battlefield in Vietnam was too heavy, Navarro has always looked at China through a kind of colored glasses, and regarded China’s rise as a threat to the United States.
From 2006 to 2014, Navarro wrote three books, namely “The Coming Chinese War”, “Deadly China”, and “Crouching Tiger: What China’s “Militarism” Means to the World”, known as the “Three Books of China”.
The views of these three books are basically the same, simply put, how China’s role in international trade conflicts with other countries on issues such as energy, natural resources, environment, intellectual property rights, etc., how it brings harm to other countries, and rises to the level of national strategy, arguing that the United States should impose a military blockade and economic tariffs to contain China’s rise and maintain American global hegemony.
These three books can be said to cater to the confusion caused by the relocation of the manufacturing industry at the bottom of the United States at that time, so almost all of them were hits. Industry commentators said: “Navarro’s style is characterized by clear views, unambiguous writing, and full of gunpowder.”
It was precisely because the book sold well that Navarro came into Kushner’s sights.
After Kushner contacted Navarro, he felt that this person was knowledgeable, well-informed, and had all kinds of data at his fingertips, and he felt that this person was available and could be obtained like a sleeping dragon and phoenix, so he quickly recommended Navarro to Trump.
After reading “Deadly China,” Trump praised it as “to the point.” It describes our problems with China with facts, figures and insight,” and then recruited Navarro under his command.
December 21, 2016On Sunday, Trump announced the appointment of Navarro to lead the newly formed White House National Trade Council chairman, serving as an assistant to the president and director of trade and industrial policy, as well as serving as a White House trade adviser.
It can be said that almost all tariff policies in the Trump 1.0 era, as well as other decisions, are based on data, opinions, etc., from Navarro. It can be said that Navarro is the chief operator of the Sino-US trade war 1.0.
However, in the era of trade war 1.0, Trump’s tariff war did not reach its goal. Navarro could only rely on scolding China for the “counterfeit and shoddy” virus test kits and accusing China of “hoarding personal protective equipment” to brush up his presence, and was sanctioned by China.
However, what really made Navarro win Trump’s trust was not his “tariff talent”, but something else:
Do time.
During his tenure at the University of California in the 90s, Navarro made several attempts to enter politics, running for Congress five times but failing five times.
To paraphrase Lu Bu’s words: drifting for half a life, only hating the master who has not met him.
After joining Trump’s door, Trump treated him as a national soldier, and naturally gained Navarro’s loyalty. After Trump’s defeat in 2020, Navarro insisted that the election results were rigged and that victory should belong to Trump.
Then, Navarro was targeted by the Special Commission of Inquiry into the Capitol Hill riots, and Navarro was summoned twice to appear for questioning.
But Navarro steadfastly refused to provide testimony about Trump’s involvement in the Capitol riot and was eventually charged with “contempt of Congress” in 20243Yue was sentenced to 4 months in prison.
To be honest, it was not easy for Navarro to stand his ground like this.
March 2024 is the time when the Democrats’ strangulation of Trump is at its highest.”Hush money”34 countsComing soonIn April, no one knew if Trump could escape the catastrophe, and even Trump’s daughter Ivanka had already cut off from Trump, not to mention a strategist who joined halfway?
But what I didn’t expect was that Navarro was loyal to Trump and was unwilling to betray Trump even if he was in prison!
The wind knows the strength of the grass, and the board knows the honest minister!
For Navarro, who has been tested, Trump is bound to reuse. So just hours after Navarro was released from prison last July, he appeared at the Republican National Convention and was greeted by a standing ovation from the crowd of Republicans.
After Trump was elected president, he also reappointed Navarro as a senior adviser on trade and manufacturing in the White House, becoming the only person retained by the previous Trump team.
And then there is the Trump tariff that we see today on the whole world.
But the question is, Navarro is loyal, what is his actual level?
In fact, very early on, in order to better understand Trump’s tariff thinking, countries around the world bought Navarro’s “Three Books on China” to study how this high-level think tank understands tariffs and how to deal with them.
But after researching, I found out that this guy is a liar of academic fraud!
In “Deadly China,” Navarro often refers to Ron Walla, a “China expert” and Navarro’s “friend.” (Ron Vara’s point of view), because the point of view is incisive, it is impressive.
Navarro said Ron Walla was a “reservist in the Gulf War” and like Navarro. He studied economics at Harvard University”.
But when Tessa Morris-Suzuki, professor emeritus at the Australian National University, went to Harvard to discuss academic issues with Ron Walla, he found that Harvard had never had such a person!
It’s strange, why could Navarro still quote him if he didn’t have this person?
After Suzuki researched it, he found out that this Ron Walla was a fictional character at all!
And the fictional method is also very simple, that is, Navarro’s own surname Navarro rearranged a few letters of the letters, so Navarro, and it becameRon Vara。
Maybe Navarro has also seen Journey to the West, Sun Xingzhi, Zhixing Sun, and Xingzhi Sun are all Monkey King alone.
But the problem is, you’re an academic book! Isn’t it academic fraud to fabricate individuals to prove one’s point?
The academic fraud of Chinese students is nothing more than making up what Lu Xun said to prove their views, but I didn’t expect Navarro to play even more sassy, and even the characters were fictional!
And Suzuki also discovered that as early as 2001, Ron Vala appeared in Navarro’s paper! It seems that his academic fraud has not been a day or two!
Faced with Suzuki’s accusations, Navarro had to come out in embarrassment and explain, saying that it was nothing more than a joke and had an “entertainment effect”.
So the question is, can the point of view of a fictional character with “entertainment effect” be used as the basis for his own thesis? Can it be used as a basis for a country’s economic policy based on assumptions?
When the world’s stock market has evaporated billions, countless people have gone bankrupt, countless people have gone to the rooftop, countless people are facing unemployment, and countless people have no livelihood, who would have thought that the source of all this is actually an academic fraud? It’s outrageous, it’s magical!
All this may have been doomed since the time when Trump appointed people on the basis of “loyalty” rather than meritocracy.
To be honest, I’m kind of overestimating Trump’s new team.
When Vance messed up the U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal, I thought Vance was young and vigorous.
When Waltz built an air raid on the Houssein, I also felt that the new American team had flat communication and high efficiency.
When the U.S. Department of Commerce used excel to calculate tariff rates, I thought it was because I didn’t have enough time to do a detailed tariff investigation, so I made a quick plan.
But when I learned that Trump’s tariff policy came from the hands of an academic liar, I realized that Trump’s new team is really a grass team!
And the embarrassment that Trump is facing now is all related to this grass platform.
The big march that swept the United States, in response to Tesla’s smashing and burning, the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire ran aground, and the war in Gaza resumed, Houthi blew it up, but it didn’t seem to be useful, and he could only use the sentence “As long as you don’t attack merchant ships, I won’t hit you” to go down the stairs.
It can be said that none of the ideas put forward by Trump since taking office have landed except for the $5 million Trump gold card.
This shows the difference between the Trump and Biden teams.
Biden’s team is “assistive”, even if Biden makes a statement, Blinken has to be by his side to watch carefully, and if the president says the wrong thing, he can come back as soon as possible.
And Trump’s team is “loyal”, whether it is capable or not, anyway, “long live the mountain”, even if the president goes crazy, he must go crazy.
Judging from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, his team probably did not have a response plan for what to do in the event of a counterattack, wishful thinking that as soon as their reciprocal tariffs come out, the world will kneel, and then the United States can win, win, win, win.
But as soon as China’s countermeasures came out, they were all dumbfounded, why didn’t you China follow the script I wrote!
Therefore, Trump’s 50% tariff threat on social media in the middle of the night is most likely decided by Trump with a pat on the head, and the team did not dare to make suggestions at all, and even Trump announced it directly without even asking for the team’s opinion.
But does Trump understand what another 50 percent tariff would mean?
The 34% tariff is already unprofitable, and if you add another 50%, who can you scare? Anyway, it’s all a fact decoupling! Nothing different!
Everything has been done, what face is there to ask China not to continue to add? It’s a brain disease!
On April 8, a spokesman for the Department of Commerce spoke to Trump 50%.Tariffs made a statement:
The US threatens to escalate tariffs on China, which is a mistake on top of a mistake and once again exposes the blackmail nature of the US side, which China will never accept. If the US side insists on going its own way, China will accompany it to the end.
To put it bluntly, the world is now watching China to see if it can carry the banner of resistance to the tariff war.
I think that back then, when Xiang Yu broke the kettle and sank the boat, the other allied forces were watching from the side. Until Xiang Yu fought bravely to kill the enemy, defeated Zhang Han, and became a god in a battle, the allies knelt down to worship Xiang Yu. At this point, the Qin Dynasty edifice fell apart.
And China, what it is doing now is to sample the world. And the more aggressive Trump behaves now, the more it shows that he has no cards to play.
Judging from the public opinion on the Internet in the past few days, the confusion and fear in 2018 have rarely been seen, and most people’s views are bars, life and death are downbeat, and if you don’t accept it, you will do it!
After all these years of tossing, the Chinese have actually understood that Trump’s trick is actually very simple, that is, extreme pressure, as long as you are afraid of once, there will be endless troubles, thinking of one out is another, so that you are not at peace.
In this case, it is better to hard bar to the end, anyway, Trump wants to win alone, but for Chinese, even if it is a lose-lose, do not want a single win.
Trump should read Chinese history, China did not kneel in 1937, China did not kneel in 1950, China never knelt in 2018, and now China has the strength of the largest industrial country in Blue Star and the military power of sitting on the second side, how can it be scared and obediently kneel?
The current situation is that there is no way back for both sides, and it will only spiral escalation and eventually decoupling.
Even if it comes to the worst outcome, there is nothing to be afraid of, anyway, this day will come sooner or later, it is nothing more than a little earlier.
It’s just ridiculous that the arrogant Americans still can’t recognize China’s strength.
Industrial power cannot be used to produce goods, but to produce arms?
The huge foreign exchange reserves and US debts are not used for military spending, so should they be used to pay reparations?
Chinese, who are born upright, should they wag their tails and beg for mercy like Japan and South Korea?
The Chinese are not frightened, and there is a generation of Shangganling.
Brent Niemann, an official of the Treasury Department during the Biden administration in the United States, published an article in the New York Times on the 7th, criticizing the Trump administration for citing its academic achievements to calculate the so-called “reciprocal tariff”, but the calculation results were very wrong, and expressed a strong desire to completely abolish the “reciprocal tariff”.
Niemann criticized the U.S. government’s “reciprocal tariffs” from three aspects: first, the goal of eliminating the trade deficit with each trading partner one by one through “reciprocal tariffs” is unreasonable; Second, the tariff formula assumes that tariffs are imposed on one country and will not affect U.S. imports from other countries, and ignore the impact on U.S. exports; Third, the “pass-through rate” of tariffs on import prices in the formula is set by the U.S. government at “25%”, while if the pass-through rate of “95%” calculated by Niemann et al. is calculated, the tariff will be only one-quarter of the current one.
It is reported that the Office of the United States Trade Representative previously announced the calculation method of “reciprocal tariffs”, citing an academic paper written by four economists including Niemann.
Conclusion: The Inevitable Collapse of Trump’s Tariff Bluff
Trump’s trade war was never about economics—it was about political theater. But when the script is written by a man who invented his own sources, the ending was always going to be disastrous.
Now, as the U.S. stumbles toward another self-inflicted crisis, China’s message is clear:
“We’re not afraid of a fight. Bring it on.”
Final Thought:
Trump’s tariffs won’t make America great—they’ll just prove that bad policy, built on lies, always fails.
What do you think? Will Trump’s tariffs backfire? Let me know in the comments.
