Controversial Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque recently threw out another surprising statement:
In the next 2 years, software outsourcing engineers in India will disappear, because the development of artificial intelligence will replace the market’s human demand for these jobs.
He further explained that if your job is just to sit in front of a computer and not need to deal with people, then AI will have a huge impact on you.
Because of the large language model of Code Copilot on Github, its ability is comparable to that of experienced programmers who have been in the industry for many years. And as a fresh graduate, you still need a long period of polishing to be able to stand alone.
Artificial intelligence will make programmers disappear within 5 years
Mostaque has published predictions on artificial intelligence before, and believes that artificial intelligence has a huge market, but there are also huge hidden dangers of bubbles.
Generative artificial intelligence such as Stable Diffusion will become the knowledge infrastructure of the future.
“It’s a huge market with trillion-dollar investment potential.”
Mostaque said that although there are not many opportunities to invest in this technology at present, in the future, the market will reward companies that use artificial intelligence to increase revenue and profits, and punish those who do not use artificial intelligence.
But on the other hand, this “trillion dollar” market may also become “the biggest bubble ever.”
The influence of artificial intelligence is huge, and a small mistake may cause huge losses.
Google once lost $100 billion in real terms in one day because of a factual error in the presentation of Bard’s press conference.
Mostaque believes that today’s artificial intelligence is not ready for widespread adoption because it cannot be guaranteed.
However, the popularity and powerful functions of artificial intelligence in the market have begun to have a huge impact on practitioners in some countries.
Especially Indian outsourced programmers.
Mostaque believes that the impact of artificial intelligence on employment is caused by different rules and regulations around the world. In countries with stricter labor laws, the impact of artificial intelligence will be smaller.
But the use of artificial intelligence means that project development can be completed with less manpower.
In India, “outsourced programmers below level 3 will disappear in the next year or two,” Mostaque said.
If the underlying generative artificial intelligence is going to replace software engineers, then India will be the most affected country.
With more than 5 million programmers, India is the largest software outsourcing country in the world, accounting for 60% of the global software outsourcing market.
However, the explosion of AI technology has brought about a rapid change in the employment situation of Indian programmers.
Whether artificial intelligence will take over existing human jobs is not at the heart of the question. The extent to which new technologies can catalyze new jobs and opportunities is the key to whether humans will lose their jobs on a large scale in the future.
There is still no substitute for top programmers and IT elites, but a massive decline in entry-level and regular programming jobs is coming.
Artificial intelligence won’t replace programmers, it will make developers more efficient
Another veteran of the technology industry who is at the forefront of AI technology development, GitHub CEO Thomas Maxwell has a completely different view on this issue.
He believes that artificial intelligence will allow developers to do their jobs better, and it is impossible to completely replace developers.
Just like autonomous driving cannot completely replace humans, because the car needs people to tell it where the destination is.
AI can do some simple but time-consuming tasks, but developers need to write the story.
With the help of artificial intelligence, developers can have more time to complete those more complex tasks.
Developing a program is like building a huge pyramid, and AI allows humans to work at higher and higher places.
And in the eyes of many other first-line developers, human empathy and communication are also critical to IT and development.
There are many human elements involved in IT work, and that probably won’t change dramatically.
Developers need to listen to people’s voices a lot, understand people’s needs, and understand the complex environment in which users live.
So it’s hard to imagine when AI can replace humans to do these things.
For existing technical teams, AI can make them more effective, not smaller.
And because AI technology itself is also developed by computer engineers, the rise of the AI wave has greatly increased the demand and wages of AI algorithm engineers.
According to the latest data from Levels.fyi, the average annual salary of an AI engineer at Google is about $254,701, with a base salary of nearly $200,000.
In China, the demand and salary of AI engineers have also reached an all-time high.
Seemingly contradictory views, the essence is the same
The impact of artificial intelligence on programmer jobs is essentially a manifestation of the automation trend in the software development industry.
Just like what happened in the car factory decades ago, the impact of artificial intelligence on developers can be understood as the impact of modern automated assembly lines on manual technicians.
As the degree of automation increases , the labor will definitely decrease.
However, even modern manufacturing, which is already highly automated, still requires human employees to complete some complex and critical tasks.
Demand for IT professionals across society has historically been high, and despite recent layoffs by high-profile companies, there is still a skills gap in the tech industry.
Therefore, it is impossible for artificial intelligence to completely replace human workers.
Even AI-assisted software development may not be able to solve the existing talent shortage.
The automation trend across the development industry needs to be viewed in a broader context outside of the technical realm.