Tech

Deciphering Kissinger’s Visit to China: The Looming AI Cold War Between the Two superpowers

Why did Kissinger drag his hundred-year-old body all the way to China? There are many analyzes and speculations on the Chinese Internet, but there is one topic that has never been noticed in China, and that is the topic of artificial intelligence.

At the end of the press release on Wang Yi’s meeting with Kissinger, there is such an inconspicuous sentence: “ The two sides also discussed issues such as Ukraine and artificial intelligence . ” The issue of artificial intelligence is just hidden in the press release. I believe that the problems mentioned in the press release must not be trivial.

This is a very difficult thing to understand. Kissinger is a geopolitical strategist who has studied global geopolitical strategy for a long time. Why does such a geostrategist discuss artificial intelligence with Chinese leaders, foreign affairs chiefs and defense ministers? ?

Many of us may not know that Kissinger has been paying attention to the key role of technology, network and artificial intelligence in the competition of great powers. In his geopolitical monograph “World Order”, he used a special chapter to analyze the role of technology and network in The role of the bottom base in the competition between great powers. In his latest monograph “The Reconstructed World”, he specifically analyzes the significance of artificial intelligence to international politics.

Zheng Yongnian, a Singaporean scholar, analyzed Kissinger’s impact of artificial intelligence on modern geopolitics, saying that Kissinger believes that artificial intelligence is the next generation after nuclear weapons that can dominate the world. We need to enhance our strategic understanding of artificial intelligence .

Zheng Yongnian analyzed that artificial intelligence will have a major impact on national society, internal affairs and diplomacy, especially once it is militarized, it may not only intensify conflicts between countries, but may even have a devastating impact on the world. One of the basic conditions for maintaining the current world order is not to use nuclear weapons, but AI may strengthen nuclear weapons. For example, what will happen if AI is applied to nuclear weapons? The chip is very important because it has a great impact on technological progress and artificial intelligence. In the field of really high-end chips for AI , the competition between China and the United States may become more and more intense. The reason for the ” cold peace ” in the world back then was that both the United States and the Soviet Union possessed the nuclear power to destroy each other. In the future, if China and the United States can be evenly matched in the field of AI , there may be a new basis for great negotiations. Back then, the basis of the great negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union was nuclear weapons, but now the basis of the great negotiations should be artificial intelligence.

On July 12 , the “New York Times” published an in-depth article titled “This is an Act of War: Uncovering the Inside Story of the U.S. Blockade of Chinese Chips”, which restored the Biden administration’s hope that by cutting off the supply of advanced chips to China, it would maintain The entire process of American technology leadership. The article believes that the main content of the ” New Export Controls Targeting China’s Acquisition of Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology” issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on October 7, 2022 is to impose stricter restrictions on China in terms of chip manufacturing and products . Sanctions involve the manufacture of high-computing chips, advanced logic chips and high-end memory chips. Since then, the United States has pushed this sanction order to Japan, the Netherlands and other countries related to high-end chip manufacturing and manufacturing equipment and materials, and established a global alliance to completely block, contain, and strangle China’s high-end chips. The “New York Times” article stated that this is a war with far-reaching consequences launched against China.

The “New York Times” article quoted Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Technology at the Center for International Strategic Studies in the United States, as saying : On the surface, the export control measures are to update export regulations in a low-key way, but in essence they are to thoroughly Root out China’s entire advanced technology ecosystem. ” Not only will we not allow China to make any progress in technology, we will actively reverse their current development status.” “The Trump administration is targeting enterprises, and the Biden administration is targeting industry. ”

Muse, another senior semiconductor analyst, commented, “Five years ago, if you had told me the regulations, I would have told you it was an act of war — but now, we have to go to war. ”

The “New York Times” article stated that by squeezing the industry’s natural bottlenecks, the Biden administration’s goal is to prevent China from entering the future of chip technology – its impact will go far beyond weakening China’s military progress, and will also threaten China’s Economic growth and scientific leadership.

Emily Kilcrest , a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a former U.S. trade official, said: ” We said that China should not be making progress in some key technology areas, and these happen to be driving future economic growth and development. domain . ”

The reason why the United States attaches so much importance to high-end chips and launched a high-end chip war against China so severely is because high-end chips play an indispensable role in the entire artificial intelligence war, and they are the cornerstone. Once Chinese high-end chips get stuck If the development path is not followed, the United States will gain an advantage in key links in the Sino-US artificial intelligence war and eventually win.

We should also know that blocking the development of Chinese chips is only part of the Sino-US AI war. I think the artificial intelligence war has the following five key battlefields. The first battlefield is high-end chips, the second battlefield is 5G and 6G communications, and the third battlefield is artificial intelligence models supported by powerful computing power and advanced algorithms. The four battlefields are big data, and the fifth battlefield is space satellite systems and space perception capabilities.

The first battlefield: high-end chips. We previously introduced the ultimate goal of the United States in launching a war against China in the field of high-end chips through the “New York Times” article. Recently, there are two things that may cause fatal obstacles to the development of my country’s high-end chips. First, in May this year , Japan announced restrictions on the export of 23 types of equipment used in various chip manufacturing processes. This restriction came into effect in July . Second, at the end of June , after Japan, the Netherlands announced further restrictions on the export of deep ultraviolet ( DUV ) lithography machines to China on the basis of previous restrictions on the export of the most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to China . There is also news that the Netherlands will no longer provide spare parts and maintenance services for the lithography machines previously sold to China. Now we can see that not only the United States is vicious, but Japan and the Netherlands are also vicious, and they are all vying to launch a sword against China.
The second battlefield: 5G communication. The blockade of China’s 5G communication technology is mainly reflected in the multiple rounds of extermination and strikes against the Chinese company Huawei by the United States with the insidious means of national emergency, the power of the whole country, and the rogue means of arresting Meng Wanzhou. Once faced with a serious survival crisis. Now China and the United States are competing in 6G research and development, vying for control of the communications field. Since China’s 5G technology and products represented by Huawei have absolute dominance and have a crushing leading edge over the West, China will maintain its technological leadership for a long time. In order to follow the United States in restricting China’s 5G products, some Western countries such as the United Kingdom not only have to dismantle the installed Huawei products, but also affect the future development and upgrading of the entire economy because of the use of backward products and slowing down the 5G deployment process.

The third battlefield: the artificial intelligence model. This year, the large-scale artificial intelligence model CHAT-GPT4.0 released by an American company shocked the world. What is even more worrying is its military use. Almost everyone began to exclaim: wolf is coming. The big model of artificial intelligence will definitely bring revolutionary and unknown significance to the world and mankind. It will not only impact the economy and society, but also bring a huge impetus to military reform. China’s development in the field of artificial intelligence can be described as leaps and bounds. Some large companies have entered the field of artificial intelligence large-scale models to seize the track. Not long ago, China Huawei released the Pangu large-scale model and launched a large-scale weather forecast model. Traditional forecasting is 10,000 times faster. Compared with the United States, the development of China’s artificial intelligence model started late, and its computing power is greatly restricted by the United States’ sanctions on high-end chips. Therefore, the development of large artificial intelligence models in China is hindered not because of the lack of advanced algorithm technology, but because of insufficient computing power. Recently, the U.S. government has been increasing its sanctions on China’s high-end chips. In addition to military factors, the main purpose is to prevent the iterative upgrade of China’s artificial intelligence model.

The fourth battlefield: the global system of big data. There is a message that many people may not have noticed. On July 10 , the European Commission passed a decision on the adequacy of the EU – US data privacy framework. The adoption of this so-called ” Privacy Shield 2.0″ not only means that the data channel between the United States and Europe has been opened up again, but also from a deeper level, It is an important development of the US global cross-border data strategy. In addition to the European Union, the United States is also negotiating data transmission with the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Indonesia and other countries. The strategic goal of the United States is to establish a global data transmission and use system dominated by the United States. Since data is the blood of artificial intelligence and the cause of modern industry, once the United States masters and controls the global data blood transmission system, it will surely form a US data hegemony just like the US dollar hegemony. Against the backdrop of the US-led integration of global data transmission and flows, if China does not act quickly, it is very likely that it will become a data island in the future world, which is not conducive to the global competition and expansion of the Chinese economy. How to participate in global data cooperation and competition while adhering to national data sovereignty and ensuring national data security is a major issue we face. Is it possible to discuss the establishment of a data alliance led by China and BRICS as the main body? Big data is playing an increasingly important role in the current national competition, and it is an important battlefield in the artificial intelligence war. It is of equal importance to chips, 5G communications, artificial intelligence models, and aerospace systems.

The Fifth Battlefield: Networks, Space Satellite Systems and Space Awareness. At present, many countries, including India, South Korea, and Japan, are promoting the development of their own space satellite systems, which include rocket launch capabilities, various types of satellite development capabilities, satellite positioning systems, low-orbit satellite systems, space stations, and lunar exploration projects. , Mars project and other constructions, but only China and the United States have real global competitiveness. Now China has not lost to the United States in the construction of the entire space system, and even surpassed the United States in some aspects. Since China’s aerospace system achieves breakthroughs through self-reliance, it will not be affected by the sanctions of the United States at all, and will not be stuck by the United States. This battlefield is the battlefield where we are most confident in gaining an advantage and victory. However, the status quo of China’s network is not optimistic, and the United States still has a situation where we are stuck on the network. At the same time, we should also see that the network, space satellite system and perception capabilities are important symbols and manifestations of a country’s military strength. From the Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine War, we can know that the network, satellite system, and UAV battlefield system form The advanced battlefield strike capability has become a key factor in determining the outcome of a war. It can be said that whoever has a strong battlefield perception ability and who has a strong network and satellite system can dominate the outcome of the battlefield. The role of artificial intelligence on the battlefield is increasingly surpassing the role played by traditional large-scale weapons and equipment, and it has increasingly become the dominant and decisive force on the battlefield.
When the five forces of high-end chips, 5G communications, large models, big data, networks, and air and space forces are combined, a powerful strategic confrontation force will be formed. When the United States attacks us in these five areas, it will be In launching a full-scale artificial intelligence war against us, as the “New York Times” article said, artificial intelligence wars are even more cruel and tragic than military wars.

If the purpose of the United States launching the chip war is to completely eradicate China’s entire advanced technology ecosystem, so that we cannot make any progress in technology, then the United States’ artificial intelligence war against China is to completely destroy China and destroy China , so that we can never stand up.

Zheng Yongnian said that a basic condition for the maintenance of the world order is not to use nuclear weapons, but AI may strengthen nuclear weapons. For example, what will happen if AI is applied to nuclear weapons?

Now let’s understand why Kissinger came to China at the age of 100, and it will be much clearer to discuss the issue of artificial intelligence with China, because the most dangerous place in the world is not Ukraine or Taiwan, but artificial intelligence. The rapid development is that artificial intelligence is losing control, and it is the fierce competition and confrontation between China and the United States in artificial intelligence. Kissinger believes that when artificial intelligence is used in war, it will definitely be a war that neither China nor the United States can bear. tragedy.

Some people say that the artificial intelligence war launched by the United States against China is a silicon curtain between China and the United States. It is a real cold war. In this war, China is still at a disadvantage, but we have no other choice but to fight .

We don’t know what Kissinger said to China about artificial intelligence. But I hope that Kissinger is not trying to persuade China to support the artificial intelligence hegemony established by the United States, and not to have a war with the United States in the field of artificial intelligence. Perhaps in Kissinger’s view, only by maintaining the hegemony of the United States in the field of artificial intelligence can the existing world order be maintained and the world’s balance and stability be maintained. If Kissinger came to China to promote his ideas and values, I don’t think I would respect him, but despise him.

But still the same sentence, the artificial intelligence war has come, we cannot escape, we should fight bravely, otherwise we will have no tomorrow and no future.

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