News,  Wealth

3 Major Troubles Threatening the Global Economy

European and American stock markets have indeed performed well, but troubles behind them have gradually emerged. According to Reuters, talks between UPS and the International Brotherhood of Truckers have stalled. A think tank specializing in the study of United Parcel Service (UPS) said that the UPS strike may be “one of the most expensive strikes in at least a century”, and the loss of 10 days of shutdown will be as high as 7 billion U.S. dollars (equivalent to nearly 50 billion yuan. Yuan).

In addition, according to the “New York Times” report on July 13, the American Screen Actors Guild and the United Radio and Television Artists Union (SAG-AFTRA) announced that it had failed to reach a new agreement with the Alliance of Film and Television Producers (AMPTP), which represents the interests of film and television studios. agreement, to determine the strike. It will be the first simultaneous strike by writers and actors in Hollywood since 1960.

It is worth mentioning that Britain is also in big trouble. British lenders have reported the biggest rise in mortgage defaults since 2009 in recent months, a Bank of England survey showed, which is expected to curb the supply of home loans and unsecured borrowing. UK public debt will also pose a significant fiscal risk within 10 years.

UPS can spell big trouble

Negotiations between UPS and the International Brotherhood of Truckers have stalled. The truckers have vowed to strike if a deal is not approved before the current contract expires at midnight on July 31. A sticking point in the negotiations has been increasing wages for part-time workers, who make up about half of UPS’s workforce. Permanent part-time workers are especially frustrated because they earn only slightly more than new hires, whose wages have risen sharply in a tight labor market.

It’s a massive strike, and one that’s being undervalued.

For starters, roughly 340,000 unionized UPS workers handle about a quarter of all package deliveries in the U.S., serving nearly every town in the country. Shipping experts have warned that the strike could delay millions of daily deliveries, including Amazon (AMZN.O) orders, electronic components and life-saving prescription drugs. It could also reignite disruption in supply chains and thus inflation.

Second, a UPS think tank said the UPS strike could be “one of the costliest in at least a century,” with a 10-day shutdown costing as much as $7 billion.

Michigan-based Anderson Economic Group (AEG) estimated that UPS customers lost $4 billion and lost direct wages at more than $1 billion. A 15-day UPS strike in 1997 disrupted delivery, cost the world’s largest package delivery company $850 million and turned some customers to rivals such as FedEx (FDX.N).

“Consumers will feel it within days,” AEG Chief Executive Patrick Anderson said of the potential strike, adding that his analysis did not include treatments for cancer and other life-threatening Losses caused by interruption of shipment of disease-critical and perishable medicines.

Anderson said the strike by UPS workers posed a greater risk to the U.S. economy than the UAW worker stoppage at the “Detroit Big Three” automakers that began contract negotiations on Thursday.

He noted that automakers are negotiating with fewer workers and limited geographic reach. General Motors ( GM.N ) took a $3.6 billion hit to fourth-quarter profit in fiscal 2019 as a 40-day UAW strike shut down its profitable U.S. operations.

UPS is urging trucker negotiators to return to the table, but union officials say UPS needs to boost its offer for workers risking their lives during the pandemic to help the company generate huge profits.

In a recent note, Stifel analyst Bruce Chan said UPS faced two unattractive choices: Either risk a strike and cost customers, or acquiesce to the truckers’ demands, which could potentially Exacerbate the company’s labor cost disadvantage in an inflationary environment.

crisis in hollywood

In addition to UPS, there is also a crisis in Hollywood. Hollywood actors went on strike at midnight local time Thursday, joining film and TV writers after talks with studios collapsed. This action is almost certain, and the damage to the production of dozens of TV series and movies is huge.

Hollywood’s largest union, SAG-AFTRA, which represents 160,000 film and television actors, and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) both demanded an increase in basic and residual wages in the streaming TV era, and guaranteed that their jobs would not be replaced by artificial intelligence. Fran Drescher, a former star of the TV show “The Nanny” and chairman of SAG-AFTRA, called the studio’s response to the actors’ concerns “insulting and disrespectful.” The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), a trade association negotiating on behalf of Netflix Inc (NFLX.O), The Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) and others, said it was “deeply disappointed by SAG-AFTRA’s approach and has Decided to withdraw from the negotiations.”

Studios now face their first double shutdown in 63 years, forcing them to suspend many productions in the U.S. and overseas. The two strikes will add to the economic damage from the writers’ strike, dealing another blow to an industry that is struggling to change business.

A strike by some 11,500 writers has led to endless reruns of late-night TV talk shows, disrupted production for much of the fall TV season and halted production of big-budget films. The strike by the Screen Actors Guild of America (SAG-AFTRA), which represents actors from supporting actors to big-name Hollywood movie stars, will effectively shut down the studio’s remaining U.S. film and scripted TV productions. They will also hold back many overseas shoots involving SAG-AFTRA talent, such as Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator” sequel, which director Ridley Scott has been filming in Morocco and Malta.

The WGA shutdown has rippled across California and beyond, affecting caterers, prop suppliers and others who depend on Hollywood productions for their business.

Britain is in big trouble too

Of greater concern is Great Britain’s troubles.

British lenders have reported the biggest rise in mortgage defaults since 2009 in recent months, a Bank of England survey showed, which is expected to curb the supply of home loans and unsecured borrowing. The Bank of England’s quarterly survey of credit conditions showed its measure of mortgage defaults rose to 30.9 in the second quarter from 14.0 in the first quarter, the highest reading since mid-2009, when it hit 60.

Broker AJ Bell said that despite the successful results of stress tests for the UK banking sector, the risk of bank customers defaulting on their loans is still increasing. “While all is well in the stress test, the outlook is far from rosy and reality is starting to approach the scenario in the stress test.” Danni Hewson, director of financial analysis, said that although the capital position and resilience of the UK banking sector are performing well, borrowing The risk of people being unable to repay their debts remains. Bank earnings and dividends could be hit if the situation gets worse and the government pressures lenders to provide support measures for customers struggling due to high interest rates.

In addition, Britain’s public debt could soar to more than 300% of annual economic output by the 2070s due to challenges such as an aging society, climate change and geopolitical tensions, higher than the current level, the Office for Budget Responsibility said. 100%. These challenges have posed significant fiscal risks for a decade, the OBR said.

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