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In the era of artificial intelligence, which are low-risk occupations?

  Regarding the threat of artificial intelligence to human careers, it has been rampant since the robot “Alpha Dog” defeated the world Go champion Lee Sedol. These messages indicate that machines are and will replace occupations that were once widely available, and even many of these occupations are high-paying jobs. So, which occupations will be low-risk occupations in the era of artificial intelligence?
  No matter how good the programming work is, there will be a row of machines at the door, and this society will no longer need you.
   “I have been doing administration in a company, with little money, and the leaders are not welcome. I want to study finance, and I can become an accountant after the research; but I have heard many people say that the era of artificial intelligence is coming, and many jobs will be replaced by machines. Accounting is one of them. What kind of jobs in the future will not be easily replaced by artificial intelligence?”
  Regarding the threat of artificial intelligence to human occupations, it has been rampant since the robot “AlphaGo” defeated the world Go champion Lee Sedol. Indeed, threats from artificial intelligence have emerged in many fields: highway toll stations use ETC (electronic toll collection) to replace toll collectors, and ETC is a type of artificial intelligence; banking business halls have installed various banking machines to replace window Tellers; various news mentioned that a large number of operators of securities companies, which used to be golden rice bowls, have been replaced by machines… All
  this information indicates that machines are and will replace occupations that used to be widely available, and even many of these occupations are high-income positions.
  From 2015 to the present, the BBC has continuously released a research result based on the data system of Cambridge University researchers Michael Osborne and Carl Ferre, listing 365 occupations that may be threatened by artificial intelligence, and conducted a survey on them. Ranking, which summarizes the 5 highest risk jobs and the 5 safest jobs.
  What kind of occupation will be a low-risk occupation in the era of artificial intelligence? We can actually analyze it from three angles.
  1. Distinguish between procedural work and exploratory work All the work
  we do can be divided into two types: procedural work and exploratory work.
  1. Procedural work
  Procedural work is work that can be implemented based on a set of standardized and streamlined operations.
  Like a factory production line. From a device to a product, hundreds of procedures and standards are required. As long as each process is completed according to the procedures and standards, the product can be made.
  For example, the bank’s front office business. Every business has standardized processes and actions, and even every sentence facing customers has a corresponding standardized speech. This is also a typical procedural work.
  Such as telemarketing. An important difference between telemarketing and offline sales is that the process standardization of telemarketing is extremely detailed and strict. It does not target each potential customer by paying attention to each customer’s characteristics and responses, but divides the customer’s response into Several categories, and design a set of standardized speech techniques for each type of response to achieve a certain percentage of customer conversion.
  2. Exploratory work
  Exploratory work cannot be completed only by standardization and process. Almost every project requires some new explorations.
  Like clinicians. Maybe the symptoms of the patients are similar, but the characteristics of the patients and the lesions are different in each operation, and some exploration is required in the operation.
  Such as designers. Designers need to invest in exploration when doing graphic design and interface design. Although the existing software can realize more one-click design functions, how to write the script, how to draw the storyboard, and how to show the effect, each work needs to be explored.
  Such as a psychologist. Every psychological consultation is an exploration of the unknown, and the visitor’s emotions, expressions, language, as well as his own feelings, questions, and analysis are all brand-new experiences.
  So, what can artificial intelligence mainly accomplish? Naturally, it is procedural work. All work that can be streamlined and standardized can be done by machines.
  The replacement of production lines by machines is nothing new. After all, these streamlined and standardized jobs are mainly physical, and industrialization used to replace manual labor; but now, a large number of “brain” jobs that can be streamlined and standardized will also be replaced by artificial intelligence. As long as there are a large number of repeatable processes and programs that can be encoded in the work content, the machine will use its powerful computing power to replace manpower through massive learning, such as reading, memorizing, repeating, and data analysis.
  Therefore, the skills behind these procedural jobs such as telephone sales, bank tellers, and even securities company traders will rapidly depreciate under the impact of artificial intelligence, and the moat of the job will be quickly washed away.
  Relatively speaking, exploratory work can have a greater living space. After all, a large number of details of exploratory work cannot be streamlined and standardized, but require a considerable degree of emotion, experience, and human brain decision-making. For these tasks, artificial intelligence is indeed learning, but it takes longer to learn; even if it is learned, humans dare not hand over this kind of work to machines, because these jobs are safety jobs.
  So what exactly is exploratory work?
  Two and three types of promising exploratory jobs
  These three types of exploratory jobs will have more technical content in the future, will not be easily replaced, and will have greater demand. I call them the “three safety islands.”
  1. Social work
  I often do career consulting. The characteristic of this kind of consulting is that we often have to meet and communicate. Both parties need to see each other, observe each other, and feel each other in order to communicate effectively. This kind of work is social work.
  Communication in social work requires a lot of emotional investment. You need to understand the other party’s feelings, needs, mental state, and thinking concepts, and thus empathize, understand, experience, and perceive, and use appropriate and rich language and behavior to achieve your work goals in the interaction with the other party. All these verbs are great challenges for artificial intelligence.
  The robot in the American TV series “Westworld” is completely capable of autonomous social communication, and it looks scary. However, based on the feedback of a large number of engineers, they believe that the sci-fi color of “Western World” is greater than the real color, and it is too early for artificial intelligence to achieve real “social interaction”. Social work is the first island of safety.
  Typical social jobs include: key account sales, consultants, marketing, human resources, customer service, teachers.
  2. Design work The English “Design” of
  design was born in the field of art, and was later used in the fields of industry and management. Compared with “development” and “manufacturing”, “design” has more original features from 0 to 1. When we hear the word design, our brains often think of strategies and patterns that are original, unformed, and not yet used on a large scale.
  The “original” nature of the design makes it more difficult for machines to replace this capability. Artificial intelligence can do a lot of repetitive tasks, and as long as the tasks can be coded, they can learn. However, it is still difficult for artificial intelligence to do original work. It can copy a million copies of Van Gogh’s “Starry Night”, but it cannot become Van Gogh himself and create an original work of art in 100% Van Gogh style. Therefore, design work with original colors is the second safety island.
  Typical design jobs include: graphic designer, interface designer, motion effect designer, copywriting planner, screenwriter.
  3. Experience work.
  An “experienced” doctor and a “skilled” doctor, everyone must think that the “experienced” doctor is better. What is the difference between “experience” and “skills”? The dictionary defines experience as “knowledge or skills acquired through practice”, which seems to be distinguished from skills. But we still can’t figure out why experience is better than skills?
  Let me provide my definition of experience. Experience is a person’s ability to recognize, evaluate and respond to accidental events in the field. The difference between experience and skill is “incident”.
  An experienced doctor means that he has experienced a large number of incidents in the process of seeing a doctor, such as various difficult symptoms, various unexpected accidents during surgery, and thus established a set of cognitive, evaluation and coping abilities. However, a skilled but inexperienced doctor shows that he can only deal with certain typical disease symptoms, typical surgical methods, and has no ability to establish a set of capabilities for occasional events.
  When a profession pays more attention to experience, it means that there are a lot of accidents in this profession, such as doctors, teachers, and tunnel designers; it also means that the accidents of this profession are particularly influential, such as pilots and fund managers.
  We have always emphasized that the most capable part of artificial intelligence is “repeatable”, and the characteristic of accidental events is “non-repeatable”. Therefore, when a profession values ​​experience more, it is difficult for this profession to be replaced by artificial intelligence. Experience work is the third safety island.
  Typical experience jobs include: doctors, teachers, consultants, lawyers, pilots, fund managers, tunnel designers, architects, artificial intelligence engineers.
  3. Judging whether it is a dumbbell-shaped industry
  What is a “dumbbell-shaped industry”? It means that 60% of the work in this industry is procedural work, and 40% of the work is exploratory work.
  For example, the financial industry has already shown the characteristics of a dumbbell-shaped industry. In the financial field, 60% of jobs are procedural jobs, such as bank tellers, telephone sales, basic accounting, and securities traders; while 40% of jobs are exploratory jobs, such as investment analysts, fund managers, and financial planners.
  Jobs in the industry became two-tiered. This means that once artificial intelligence is popularized in the financial industry, the demand for 60% of procedural work will become less and less. Therefore, if you want to engage in or change careers in the financial industry, or your children want to study finance in the future, you must avoid 60% of procedural work and choose 40% of exploratory work. And this 40% of the work requires higher education and more accumulation of professional knowledge.
  There are still many industries with dumbbell-shaped characteristics, such as: in the judicial field, lawyers and judges are exploratory jobs, but legal specialists and clerks are all procedural jobs; in the mechanical field, engineers and designers are exploratory jobs , Operators and production management are procedural jobs.
  If you are engaged in this type of industry, you must choose exploratory work. Otherwise, no matter how good the programming work is, there will be a row of machines at the door, and this society will no longer need you.

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