Finding Davis Double-Click Industries From a Penetration Perspective

　　Penetration rate is an important indicator for observing the life cycle of an industry. In the process of industrial development, the penetration rate of 5%, 20% and 50% are three important demarcation points. Early stage of industry development (penetration rate below 5%): The industry is in its infancy, and the blue ocean market is rising. Representative industries: AIGC, autonomous vehicles, hydrogen energy vehicles, biological breeding, perovskite batteries, folding screen mobile phones, 3D printing.
　　Penetration rate golden inflection point period (5%-20% penetration rate): catalyzed by policies or the launch of new products, the penetration rate will accelerate to an upward inflection point, and the stock price is expected to usher in a “Davis double-click”. Representative industries: BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaics), cultivated diamonds, sugar-free tea beverages, virtual reality, insurance industry, cloud computing, frozen baking, integrated die-casting, photovoltaics, prefabricated dishes, quick-frozen food, innovative drugs, sweeping robots, medical Beauty, water purifier.
　　Penetration rate acceleration period (20%-50% penetration rate): The penetration rate accelerates upwards, the valuation level decreases, and the stock price is mainly driven by performance. Representative industries: nuclear power, industrial robots, pet economy, wind power, restaurant chains, duty-free industries, hotel chains, industrial Internet, charging piles, low-temperature milk, etc.
　　Towards a mature stage (penetration rate above 50%): The first-order guide of the penetration rate is downward. Representative industries: CNC machine tools, CXO.
Penetration levels and drivers

　　The normalized permeability level is measured by the ratio between the current permeability level and the permeability ceiling. The higher the current permeability level, the lower the permeability ceiling, which means the higher the standardized penetration rate, and the smaller the room for future improvement; conversely, the lower the current permeability level, the higher the permeability ceiling, which means the lower the standardized penetration rate , the greater the room for improvement in the future, the greater the development space of the industry.
　　According to the different characteristics of emerging industries, choose different “current penetration level” calculation methods: 1) There are terminal products that can be directly corresponded to, and the “direct method” is used for calculation, such as photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear power, new energy vehicles, CNC machine tools, etc.; 2) There is no directly corresponding terminal product, and the indirect method is used to calculate the penetration rate of industrial robots, such as the number of industrial robots and the number of manufacturing population per 10,000 people; the ratio of the market size of prefabricated vegetables to the income of retail catering to measure the penetration of prefabricated vegetables Rate.
　　Not all industries can achieve 100% penetration. Photovoltaic, wind power and nuclear power are complementary, and the penetration rate of a single type is difficult to reach 100%. The calculation of the permeability ceiling adopts the following two methods: 1) National policy target guidance. For example, combined with the penetration rate guidelines of national policies, the target penetration rate of the Industrial Internet is obtained. 2) Replaced by the data of the country with the highest penetration level. For example, South Korea’s industrial robot penetration rate ranks first in the world at 9.32%, so we believe that the industrial robot penetration rate ceiling is 9.32%.
　　In the process of developing emerging industries, policy, technology and demand are the three core catalysts.
　　In terms of policies, the introduction of industry policies can gather limited human, material and financial resources in a relatively short period of time, guide market expectations, and promote industrial development. For example, in November 2020, the State Council issued the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)”, which proposes that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. The development goals have been specified, which has become one of the factors driving the new energy vehicle index to rise.
　　In terms of technology, the emergence of new products is expected to bring about “consumption upgrades”. The emergence of new technologies will reduce costs and increase efficiency for enterprises, and promote the commercialization of new products. The launch of new products, such as the iPhone, has accelerated the replacement of traditional mobile phones by smart phones; the emergence of new energy vehicles has realized the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles. To reduce costs and increase efficiency, photovoltaic PERC monocrystalline cells and heterojunction cells appeared, which greatly improved the average conversion efficiency of cells.
　　In terms of demand, with the increase of Chinese per capita disposable income, the “other economy” is gradually emerging, which promotes the vigorous development of the pet economy; young people’s demand for beauty is also one of the catalysts for the development of the medical beauty industry.
Penetration rate and industry life cycle

　　In the process of industrial development, penetration rates of 5%, 20% and 50% are three important demarcation points.
　　Penetration rate of 5%-20%: Penetration rate golden inflection point period, stock price ushered in “Davis double-click”.
　　Penetration levels are below 5%, indicating that the industry is in its infancy. Once the penetration rate exceeds 5%, the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point where the penetration rate will accelerate upwards. A typical case is new energy vehicles. According to Wind data, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be 4.7% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020. After breaking through the 5% level, the industry will develop rapidly, and the penetration rate will be 13.5% in 2021.
　　Referring to the development history of the Internet, smart phones and new energy vehicles, the inflection points of accelerated penetration rate are 12.3%, 14.1% and 7.2% respectively (monthly data for new energy vehicles), corresponding to June 2007, 2009 In June 2020 and November 2020, the normalized penetration rate levels were 16.5%, 17.2% and 7.2%, which were in the range of 5%-20%, which is in line with the 10%-25% penetration rate of accelerated progress of new things in the innovation diffusion theory. rate intervals are consistent.
　　After the industry penetration rate turns upwards, the stock price of leading companies will often experience a wave of main rises, and the stock price will peak in stages when the penetration rate is around 20%. The duration ranges from 6 to 18 months. The stock prices of leading companies peaked in December 2007, December 2010, and December 2021 respectively in December 2007, December 2010, and December 2021, with penetration rates of 16%, 21.9% and 17.8%. During this period of time, the stock prices of leading companies ushered in a “Davis double-click”.
　　Penetration rate of 20%-50%: Penetration rate acceleration period, performance drives the stock price to rise.
　　During this stage, the permeability level accelerates upward. From December 31, 2007 to December 31, 2009, the stock price of Tencent Holdings rose by 200%, but its valuation fell by 23%. From December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2012, the stock price of Goertek shares rose by about 40%, but the valuation dropped by 50%, indicating that performance drives the stock price to turn around at this stage. , indicating that the growth rate of the penetration rate has slowed down. The penetration rates corresponding to the Internet and smartphones are 28.9% and 41.7% respectively, and the normalized penetration rates are 39% and 50% respectively. It is basically consistent with the permeability level of 50% of the diffusion speed of innovation diffusion theory.
New energy vehicles from the perspective of “penetration rate”

　　Through the calculation of the standardized penetration rate of emerging industries, and according to the corresponding relationship between penetration rate and industry life cycle, various emerging industries are compared, first of all, the new energy automobile industry chain.
　　One is hydrogen fuel vehicles. At present, China’s hydrogen energy vehicles are in their infancy. According to the data forecast in the “China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report 2020”, by 2050 the market penetration rates of hydrogen fuel cell buses, logistics vehicles, heavy trucks and passenger vehicles are expected to reach 40%, 10%, 75% and 12% respectively.
　　The second is smart cars – autonomous driving. At present, the penetration rate of L2 autonomous driving in China is about 30%, and it is in the stage of moving from L2 to L3. During the process of autonomous driving from L2 to L3, the main body of environmental monitoring has changed from the driver to the system. Therefore, L3 level autonomous driving is truly autonomous driving, and the current standardized penetration rate is close to 0%.

　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: In July 2022, Shenzhen issued the “Regulations on the Administration of Intelligent Connected Vehicles in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone”. The detailed official management documents are expected to clear policy obstacles for vehicles that have achieved conditional automatic driving to legally go on the road. Demand level: According to IHSMarkit survey data, 73% of Chinese respondents are willing to ride or buy self-driving companies, which is much higher than the willingness of the United States, Japan and Germany, indicating that Chinese consumers have a positive attitude.
　　The third is integrated die-casting. Integrated die-casting technology can largely meet the lightweight requirements of electric vehicles. In 2019, Tesla proposed the integrated die-casting technology for the first time, and used it in the production of Model Y’s rear floor in the following year. Under the leadership of Tesla, electric car companies at home and abroad have followed up the layout of integrated die-casting technology. According to data from Zhitong Finance, the current penetration rate of integrated die casting in China is 12%.
　　In terms of driving factors, demand level: integrated die-casting technology can effectively reduce vehicle weight and meet the lightweight needs of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. According to the car review data of Jianyue, the weight of the traditional steel body is 350-450kg, while the raw material of the integrated die-casting body is aluminum alloy, and the weight of the body is about 200-250kg, which is more lightweight. According to a study by TheAluminumAssociation, 10% and 15% weight reduction of electric vehicles can reduce electricity consumption by 6.3% and 9.5%, respectively.
　　The fourth is the charging pile. The penetration rate of the charging pile industry is calculated based on the ratio of vehicles to piles (the ratio of the number of charging piles to the number of new energy vehicles). According to the data of the China Charging Alliance, as of September 2022, the number of charging piles in the country is 4.488 million, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio is about 2.56. Referring to the 1:1 vehicle-to-pile ratio construction target given by the state, the standardized penetration rate of charging piles at this stage is about 39.1%.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: On January 10, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and other departments issued the “Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capability of Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles”, proposing to encourage charging operations Enterprises gradually increase the proportion of fast charging piles through new construction, reconstruction, expansion, relocation and other methods. On January 25, 2022, Shanghai issued the “Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Construction of Charging and Swapping Infrastructure in the City”, proposing to form a moderately advanced urban charging network to meet the charging needs of more than 1.25 million electric vehicles by 2025. The ratio of vehicles to piles in the city is not higher than 2:1.
　　Demand level: “Mileage anxiety” is the primary factor affecting users’ purchase of new energy vehicles, and the development of charging piles may become an important way to solve users’ pain points. The “2021 Survey Report on Chinese Users’ New Energy Vehicle Consumption Decisions and Attitudes” shows that in some key regional cities, “whether charging is convenient” has become the primary consideration for 64% of users when purchasing new energy vehicles.
　　The charging infrastructure represented by charging piles is an important supporting measure for new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, to supplement electric energy. Increasing the ratio of vehicles to piles can improve the convenience of charging for users.
Renewable energy from the perspective of “permeability”

　　One is photovoltaic wind power. Taking solar and wind power generation as the caliber, as of September 2022, the cumulative power generation of photovoltaics and wind power accounted for 2.78% and 7.75% respectively. According to the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) data forecast, by 2060 China will achieve carbon neutrality, and photovoltaic and wind power will account for about 23% and 24%. Therefore, at this stage, the standardized penetration rates of photovoltaic and wind power are 12.1% and 32.3%, respectively.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: Under the dual carbon targets, China’s energy structure needs to be transformed urgently. At this stage, China’s energy structure is mainly dominated by thermal power generation. By September 2022, thermal power generation will account for as much as 70%. Compared with thermal power generation, photovoltaic and wind power are more environmentally friendly. According to the policy guidance of the National Energy Administration’s “Notice on Matters Concerning the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021”, by 2025, the national wind power and photovoltaic power generation will account for about 16.5% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, which is still relatively low compared with the present. There is 50% room for improvement.
　　At the technical level, photovoltaics: technology upgrades reduce costs and increase efficiency to reduce the cost of electricity per unit of electricity in the photovoltaic industry. On the one hand, the average conversion efficiency of p-type PERC produced on a large scale in 2021 has reached 23.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, the efficiency of n-type cells will exceed 24%, among which the efficiency of TOPCon cells will be about 24%, and the efficiency of heterojunction cells will reach 24.2%, which is a slight increase compared with 2020. On the other hand, leading companies in the industry have further reduced the cost per unit of electricity of the system by deploying high-power components. The maximum power of modules will increase from 600W in 2020 to 700W in 2021. Wind power: Large-scale wind turbines help the industry reduce costs. According to CWEA data, from 2010 to 2021, the average unit capacity of offshore wind turbines will increase from 2.6MW to 5.6MW, and the average unit capacity of onshore wind turbines will increase from 1.5MW to 3.1MW.
　　Demand level: large wind and solar bases and the promotion of the whole county boost the demand for photovoltaics. In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Submitting the Pilot Plan for the Development of Rooftop Distributed Photovoltaic in Entire Counties (Cities, Districts)”, planning to organize and carry out the development of distributed photovoltaics on rooftops in entire counties (cities, districts) across the country pilot work. As of September 14, the National Energy Administration has officially confirmed the list of 676 pilot projects for the entire county. Overseas, the European energy crisis may promote European energy transition. In May 2022, the European Union launched the “RE PowerEU” energy plan, proposing to increase the European renewable energy target from 40% to 45% in 2030.
　　The second is BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic), which is a technology that integrates solar power generation products into buildings, and is a type of distributed photovoltaic. The BIPV penetration rate is measured by the proportion of BIPV in distributed photovoltaics. According to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, the penetration rate of BIPV will be 4.9% in 2021, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 74.5% in 2025. Therefore, the normalized penetration rate of BIPV in 2021 is 6.6%.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: On July 13, 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Plan for the Implementation of Carbon Peak in Urban and Rural Construction”, which pointed out that the construction of solar photovoltaic integration in buildings will be promoted, and by 2025 new public institutions, buildings, The photovoltaic coverage rate on the roof of new factories will strive to reach 50%. On August 22, 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the “Action Plan for Accelerating the Green and Low-Carbon Innovation and Development of Power Equipment”. Develop Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV).
　　The third is the perovskite battery. Perovskite solar cells refer to a type of solar cells that use a compound with a calcium-iron composite oxide crystal structure as a light-absorbing semiconductor material. According to the data of the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the penetration rate of perovskite batteries is expected to reach 0.1% in 2022, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 30% in 2030. Based on the penetration rate ceiling in 2030, it is estimated that the standardized penetration rate of perovskite batteries will be 0.3% in 2022, and the industry is in the early stages of development.

　　In terms of catalytic factors, policy level: On August 18, 2022, nine departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the “Science and Technology Support Carbon Peak Carbon Neutralization Implementation Plan (2022-2030)”, which proposed the development of high-efficiency silicon-based photovoltaic cells, Efficient and stable perovskite battery and other technologies. Demand level: Perovskite batteries are thin, flexible and customizable, and are suitable for various scenarios such as building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), consumer electronics and fabrics. With the support of BIPV at the policy level, the demand for perovskite batteries is expected to increase.
Technology and high-end manufacturing from the perspective of “penetration rate”

　　One is 3D printing. The 3D printing penetration rate is measured by the ratio of 3D printing output value to industrial manufacturing output value. According to data from China Business Intelligence Network, the scale of the 3D printing industry in 2021 will be 26.15 billion yuan. Considering that the GDP of industrial manufacturing in 2021 is 31,379.73 billion yuan, the penetration rate of 3D printing in 2021 is only 0.08%. According to the survey results of Wohlers Associates, the chairman of the world-renowned 3D printing industry research institution, the consensus expectation of the 3D printing industry penetration rate of the 21 industry experts participating in the survey is 8%. We take 8% as the penetration rate ceiling, and the standardized penetration rate of China’s 3D printing industry is only 1%, indicating that China’s 3D industry is in the early stages of development.
　　In terms of driving factors, the policy level: guiding policies are issued, and follow-up policies still need to be observed. In the “14th Five-Year Plan” issued in March 2021, the importance of the development of additive manufacturing in improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and the development of intelligent manufacturing technology is clarified, and additive manufacturing is regarded as an important area of ​​future planning and development. Technical level: China’s 3D printing industry lags behind Europe and the United States by about ten years, but it is not much different from overseas giants in terms of equipment manufacturing capabilities and software optimization. Taking the leading 3D printing equipment company BLT as an example, the company is close to similar products of overseas giants in terms of equipment parameters, and even better than some overseas leaders in terms of molding size, oxygen content control and powder spreading efficiency.
　　Demand level: 3D printing cuts into the domestic large aircraft supply chain and superimposes domestic substitution, which is expected to stimulate incremental market and stock market demand. According to the data of Huajing Industry Research Institute, the application of additive manufacturing in aerospace will account for the highest proportion in 2021, at 16.8%. With the C919 domestic large aircraft obtaining the type certificate and putting into commercial operation, it is expected to open up a trillion-level civil aviation market. In the future, 3D printing has potential application scenarios in the processing of complex metal structural parts and aircraft maintenance. On the other hand, it comes from the demand brought about by the transformation of traditional manufacturing to high-end manufacturing in the manufacturing stock market space. In the context of domestic substitution, the application of metal 3D printing is expected to help speed up the process of domestic substitution.
　　The second is industrial robots. The density of manufacturing industrial robots is used as an indicator to measure the penetration rate. According to the “2021 World Robot Report”, South Korea has 932 robots per 10,000 people in 2020, ranking first in the world; China has 246 robots per 10,000 people. With the highest penetration rate in the world as the penetration rate ceiling, the standardized penetration rate of industrial robots in 2020 is 26.3%.
　　The third is the Industrial Internet. In August 2021, the National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center released the “Industrial Internet Platform Application Data Map” report, pointing out that the penetration rate of industrial Internet platform applications will reach 17.5% in 2021. In November 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization Development Plan”, which clarified that by 2025, the penetration rate of industrial Internet platform applications will reach 45%, and the rate of enterprise industrial equipment cloud access will reach 30% specific target. Taking the application penetration rate of the industrial Internet platform as the ceiling in 2025, China’s current standardization penetration rate of the industrial Internet is 38%.
　　The fourth is CNC machine tools. According to data from the Machine Tool Industry Association, the numerical control rate in developed countries is close to 80%. Among them, the numerical control rate of Japanese machine tools exceeds 90%, that of the United States exceeds 80%, and that of Germany exceeds 75%. The strategic outline of “Made in China 2025” clearly stated: “In 2035, the numerical control rate of key processes in China will increase from the current 33% to 64%.” The CNC machine tool penetration rate in the United States and Germany exceeds 70%, and the penetration rate ceiling of CNC machine tools is 80%. Replace the penetration rate of CNC machine tools with the 44.85% CNC rate of CNC metal cutting machine tools. Therefore, the normalized penetration level of CNC machine tools is 56.1%. Under the background of independent and controllable industrial chain and supply chain, the penetration rate of high-end CNC machine tools is expected to increase.
　　Fifth, innovative drugs and CXO (pharmaceutical outsourcing). The penetration rate of innovative drugs is measured by the sales ratio of innovative drugs. According to the data of Huajing Industrial Research Institute, the penetration rate of China’s innovative drugs in 2021 is only 11%. Taking the 79% penetration rate of US innovative drugs in 2021 as the ceiling, the standardized penetration rate of China’s innovative drug industry is 13.9%. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the penetration rate of China’s CXO market is expected to be close to 40% in 2021, and the penetration rate of the US market is around 50%. Using the indirect method, the standardized penetration rate of China’s CXO industry is as high as 80%.
Emerging consumption from the perspective of “penetration rate”

　　One is the folding screen mobile phone. Calculate the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones based on the proportion of folding screen mobile phone shipments in smartphones. According to the data of China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones in China will be about 0.41% in 2020, and the industry is in its infancy.
　　In terms of driving factors, the technical level: the hinge technology has been significantly improved, and the crease disappears to improve the user experience. Demand level: Brands such as Huawei and Samsung have entered the market, which may attract consumers’ attention. Xiaomi, OPPO, Honor and other mobile phone manufacturers have also entered the market one after another, launching their own folding screen mobile phones. Lower prices are expected to boost consumer demand. In recent years, with the improvement of the yield rate of folding screen components and the reduction of related material costs, the price of folding screen mobile phones has dropped from 15,000 to 20,000 yuan when it was just launched to around 8,000 yuan. downward trend. The drop in price has made more users willing to pay for the magical value brought by folding screens, and the demand for folding screen mobile phones has further increased. According to the data from China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and iResearch, in 2020, when the overall smartphone shipments fell by 20.4%, China’s folding screen mobile phone shipments increased by 485% year-on-year. The volume will continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 40%, which shows that folding screen mobile phones are gradually becoming popular with consumers.
　　The second is to grow diamonds. The penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds is measured by the ratio of rough-grown diamond production to rough natural diamond production. According to Bain Consulting data, the penetration rate of cultivated diamonds in the world will increase from 1% to 5.9% from 2018 to 2020, and the penetration rate of cultivated diamonds in China will increase from 4% to 6.7% from 2020 to 2021. From a global perspective, the lab-grown diamond industry is in its early stages of development, and it is difficult to estimate the ceiling of penetration.
　　In terms of driving factors, demand level: Swarovski, De Beers and other giants have entered the cultivated diamond industry, which is expected to drive consumer demand. In addition, China’s local brands have also entered the field of lab-grown diamonds.
　　The third is sugar-free tea drinks. In 2019, China’s sugar-free tea beverage sales accounted for 5.2%, far lower than Japan’s 70% and Australia’s 44.4%. Using the indirect method, based on Japan’s penetration rate of 70% in 2019, the standardized penetration rate of sugar-free tea beverages in China is 7.4%.

　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: China has a clear policy orientation on sugar-free tea beverages. Demand level: The younger generation of consumers pay more attention to the pursuit of quality and health. The rejuvenation of diabetes may drive young people to change their consumption habits. The “2022 Poly Healthy Habitat White Paper” data shows that 41% of young people will choose “0 sugar” products, and less than 20% of young people choose full sugar or seven-point sugar.
　　The fourth is frozen baking. From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of China’s frozen baking industry in 2020 is 10%, compared with the 83% penetration rate in North America in 2018, the penetration rate of China’s frozen baking industry is still at a relatively low level.
　　In terms of driving factors, the level of demand: Westernization of food and beverages will increase the per capita consumption amount, which may support the development of the frozen bakery industry. In terms of per capita consumption, compared with developed countries and regions, China’s per capita consumption of baked goods is only US$25/person, which is far lower than France (US$266/person) and the United States (US$185/person), which has greatly improved space.
　　The fifth is prefabricated dishes. The penetration rate of prepared vegetables is measured by the ratio of the size of the prepared vegetables market to the retail catering revenue. According to iiMedia Consulting data, the market size of China’s prepared vegetable industry will be about 288.8 billion yuan and 345.9 billion yuan in 2020 and 2021. Combined with China’s zero catering income, the penetration rate of China’s prepared vegetable industry is expected to be 7.3% in 2020 and 2021 respectively And 7.4%, there is a big gap with the penetration rate of 60% in the Japanese prefabricated vegetable market in 2020. Assuming that the penetration rate ceiling is 60%, it is estimated that the standardized penetration rate of China’s prepared vegetable industry will be 12.3% in 2021.
　　In terms of driving factors, at the policy level: prefabricated vegetables are an emerging industry, and there are few relevant policies. Demand level: B-end customers, on the one hand, the trend of catering standardization and chainization may drive the penetration rate of the prepared vegetable industry to increase. On the other hand, after the COVID-19 epidemic, the catering industry has an internal drive to reduce costs and increase efficiency. According to data from the “2022 China Chain Catering Industry Report”, prefabricated dishes can reduce labor costs and rent costs by a total of 8 percentage points, and the use of prefabricated dishes may help companies reduce costs and increase efficiency. C-end customers: Changes in consumption habits of residents have boosted the demand for prepared dishes. According to iResearch’s 2021 survey data, 71.9% of the consumers of prepared dishes mainly buy them to save time. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, residents’ consumption habits have changed, and the demand for convenient foods such as prepared dishes has doubled, and the penetration rate of the C-end market is expected to increase.
　　The sixth is quick-frozen food. According to data from iiMedia Consulting, the per capita consumption of quick-frozen food in China in 2019 was 9kg, far lower than the 65kg, 35kg and 20kg in the United States, Europe and Japan. Using the indirect method, the standardized penetration rate of quick-frozen food in China is estimated to be 13.8%.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: In November 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the “14th Five-Year” Cold Chain Logistics Development Plan, proposing that by 2025, a cold chain logistics chain linking production and sales, covering urban and rural areas, and connecting domestic and international markets will be initially formed. Chain logistics network. By 2035, a modern cold chain logistics system will be fully established, and the facility network, technical equipment, and service quality will reach the world’s advanced level. The introduction of the policy may promote the development of cold chain logistics technology and provide key technical support for the quick-frozen food and frozen bakery industry. Demand level: Quick-frozen food has the characteristics of easy cooking, nutritious ingredients, and no added preservatives, which meets the living habits of young people who “stay at home” and the pursuit of a healthy life.
　　The seventh is the sweeping robot. According to Statista data, the penetration rate of sweeping robots in China will be 5.5% in 2021. According to data from the 2022 China Cloud Computing Ecosystem Blue Book, the penetration rates of the United States and Japan are 15% and 9%, respectively, and there is a lot of room for improvement in China’s sweeping robots. According to the research results of M&A Youshu, the short-term penetration rate of sweeping robots in the US market is expected to rapidly increase to 30%. Taking 30% as the penetration rate ceiling, it is predicted that the standardized penetration rate of sweeping robots in China will be 18.3% in 2021.
　　The eighth is medical beauty. The indirect method is adopted to comprehensively consider the penetration rate of medical aesthetics projects and the penetration rate of medical aesthetics consumption. In 2020, China’s only 3.9%, compared with South Korea’s 21%, the standardized penetration rate of China’s medical aesthetics industry in 2020 is 18.6%. According to data from Zhongyan.com, South Korea’s penetration rate of medical beauty consumption was as high as 86.2 people/thousand people in 2002, while China’s medical beauty consumption penetration rate was 14.8 people/thousand people. was 17.2%. In summary, the penetration rate of China’s medical aesthetics industry will be about 18% in 2020.
　　Nine is the pet economy. In 2020, the market size of China’s pet industry is close to 300 billion yuan, and the pet economy is in the ascendant. The economic penetration rate of pets is measured by pet penetration rate. In 2020, the penetration rate of pets in China is 22%, and the penetration rate in the United States is the highest, reaching 70%. With 70% as the penetration rate ceiling, the standardized penetration rate of pets in China in 2020 will be 31.4%.
Focus on two emerging industries under the theme of “Digital China”

　　First of all, virtual reality (VR) is expected to replicate the new energy vehicle market. The indirect method is used to calculate the penetration rate of virtual reality industry. According to the estimates of the Guolian media team, domestic VR terminal shipments will be about 1.43 million units in 2021, and about 850,000 units in the first three quarters of 2022. Five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Action Plan for the Integration and Development of Virtual Reality and Industry Applications (2022-2026 Year)” pointed out that in 2026, the sales of virtual reality terminals in China will exceed 25 million units. Taking the medium-term target guidance in the “plan” as the penetration rate ceiling, as of the third quarter of 2022, the standardized penetration rate of China’s virtual reality industry is about 8.8%.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are listed as one of the seven key industries of the digital economy. On November 1, 2022, five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Integrated Virtual Reality and Industry Applications” Development Action Plan (2022-2026), this “plan” can be compared to the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” issued by the State Council in November 2020, under the catalysis of the policy, it is expected to accelerate the inflection point of the penetration rate of the virtual reality industry arrival. Technical level: 5G commercial operation lays a technical foundation for the development of VR. Demand level: Leading companies are accelerating the deployment of VR business, and the top brand effect is expected to attract consumers.
　　The second is cloud computing. Enterprises use the cloud or create new needs. Calculated by the indirect method. According to IDC data, in 2020, the scale of China’s public cloud market is only equivalent to 10.8% of the US public cloud market in the same year. Therefore, it is estimated that the standardized penetration rate of cloud computing in China will be 10.8% in 2020.
　　In terms of driving factors, policy level: In the “14th Five-Year Plan”, cloud computing ranks first among the seven key industries in the digital economy industry, highlighting the importance attached to it at the policy level. Demand level: After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the demand for remote office and online education has increased, and the growth rate of cloud computing in China has been high, which is higher than the global average. The scale of China’s public cloud market has maintained a rapid growth rate, exceeding 50% in the past five years, and the growth rate of the private cloud market in the past five years has exceeded 20%. At the same time, the degree of informatization of Chinese enterprises is low, and there is sufficient motivation to use the cloud.