Google’s fleeting years disadvantage?

Microsoft adds AI voice to build a “patent wall” for Google

  While Apple, Microsoft and Tesla are the top performers, Wall Street prefers Google.
  According to CNBN, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has achieved its best performance since 2009, and has become the technology giant with the largest share price increase in the United States in 2021, beating Microsoft, Apple, Facebook (renamed Meta) and Amazon on this indicator, even if it is a popular one. Fried chicken Tesla is also slightly inferior.
  Under the bright light, the dark tide is surging.
  Microsoft has added AI voice to try to compete with Google; Amazon is leading the cloud computing track, but Google Cloud is struggling to catch up but it is difficult to get closer; TikTok traffic has reached the top in the United States, cutting into Google’s hinterland… Google in
  2022, Will it still be the “guest” of Wall Street?
  AI has always been Google’s core strategy.
  As the first player to press the AI ​​shortcut key, Google has a profound background and technical advantages visible to the naked eye, which has almost stabilized the Internet giants.
  In this regard, Internet giants have never been reconciled, and Microsoft is no exception.
  In fact, Microsoft Research has been involved in AI since its establishment in 1991, but it has always played the role of an industry follower and has not become an industry leader.
  In 2015, AI also became Microsoft’s core strategy, and the contradictions between Microsoft and Google were irreconcilable.
  Although the needle is pointed at Maimang, Microsoft has always been at a disadvantage. Now that Microsoft has invested heavily in AI, the competitive situation between the two sides has changed subtly.
  On December 22, 2021, Microsoft announced that its plan to acquire AI voice giant Nuance for $16 billion was approved by the European Commission. It has been approved by the United States and Australia before, which means that the second largest merger in Microsoft’s history is a foregone conclusion.
  According to public information, Nuance can be called the “originator” of intelligent voice, once occupying as much as 80% of the global market share, and directly or indirectly serving more than 2 billion users.
  For example, Nuance helped Apple’s iOS system launch Siri in 2011, one step ahead of Android’s Google now (2012) and Windows’ Cortana (2014).
  In other words, Microsoft is trying to challenge Google’s status in the field of AI.
  According to the research report of Huaxi Securities, the current global intelligent voice market occupies 22% of the total market size of the AI ​​industry, second only to 37% of machine vision, while Nuance’s share in the global intelligent voice market is 31.6%, higher than Google’s of 28.4%.
  After Nuance has Microsoft’s blessing, Google’s pressure on the AI ​​track in 2022 will increase sharply.
  On the one hand, Nuance has been deeply involved in the medical field for many years, and has a clear first-mover advantage. It has established a “patent wall” that Google cannot avoid. As a result, Google’s expansion in the AI ​​medical field may slow down.
  On the other hand, Cerence, a subsidiary of Nuance, is the global leader in AI voice in automotive software. According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, the market share in 2020 will be 38.08%, so Google has one more in the field of automotive intelligence. A worthy opponent.
  An Internet observer told the Computer News: “Voice is the traffic entrance in the age of intelligence, and it is also a battleground for military strategists. Microsoft is trying to overtake in a corner, which tests Google’s AI heritage and whether it can continue to build high AI technical barriers.”

Source: Nuance’s official website, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Google Cloud, why is it difficult to go to the next level?

  Beyond AI, cloud computing is seen by Google as the second curve.
  Google is one of the earliest players in cloud computing, only two years later than Amazon, but it has not paid enough attention, so Google Cloud has been tepid for a long time.
  It was not until Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure showed their brilliance that Google recovered. Cloud computing is an indispensable mainstream track for Internet giants, and the industry ceiling is out of reach.
  In this regard, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt once lamented: “We didn’t put the right stepping stone into the cloud.”
  Therefore, Google adjusted its organizational structure in 2015, established the Google Cloud Division, and formulated a Ambitious goal: By 2020, Google Cloud will be on par with the advertising business.
  Ideal is full, the reality is very skinny.
  In the third quarter of 2021, Google’s operating income was US$65.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41%; among them, the operating income of the cloud computing business was US$4.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%. Although the growth rate was higher than the overall revenue, it only accounted for 7.66%; operating loss was $644 million, compared with $1.21 billion a year earlier.

Google Cloud has been subservient to Amazon, Microsoft

  Not only is the revenue structure not as good as expected, but the vision of catching up with Amazon and Microsoft has also failed.
  According to Synergy Research Group, Amazon AWS has a 33% market share, Microsoft Azure has a 20% market share and Google Cloud has a 10% market share.
  The reason is that cloud computing is an incremental market, not a stock market, and it is not a competitive situation of one and the other.
  More importantly, Google Cloud lacks the To B gene.
  Cloud computing belongs to the category of To B. It provides scenario-based precise application services, high-speed processing of massive business data, and low-cost and reliable IT infrastructure for enterprises, institutions, and organizations. Looking ahead to the curve, it is naturally difficult to have a deep understanding of cloud computing.
  In short, Google’s strong geek culture is an advantage on the C side, but a disadvantage on the B side.
  Senior security engineer “Blood Rose” told the Computer News: “Google advocates a geek culture where technology is king. If it encounters customer criticism, Amazon’s attitude is ‘Okay, redo it immediately, what else needs to be greeted by you’.” When it comes to Google, it’s ‘Oh, this is the most powerful technology at present, and what you said has long since been phased out. It is recommended to keep up with the pace of the times’.”

  In this context, the experience of Google Cloud naturally cannot satisfy everyone.
  According to the Gartner report: “Some businesses we surveyed reported poor experiences after using Google Cloud Platform, largely due to Google Cloud’s rapid growth and resulting organizational immaturity.
  ” , In 2022, Google’s cloud computing business is still difficult to reach a new level.
Is the crown of the “king of advertising” in jeopardy?

  Compared with Amazon and Microsoft, TikTok is a greater threat to Google.
  According to Cloudflare data, TikTok’s traffic in 2021 will reach the top in the world, driving Google out of the “first brother” that it has held for many years, but it will only be ranked 8th in 2020.
  This means that Google’s status as the traffic hegemon is not guaranteed.
  The problem is that Google is the “king of advertising” and pays special attention to traffic. After all, greater traffic means more active users, and the more active users, the easier it is to attract advertisers.
  For example, Google and Facebook both rely on advertising for a living, but the former’s traffic has historically been higher than the latter, making it more popular with advertisers: Google’s advertising revenue in the third quarter of 2021 was $53.13 billion, while Facebook’s advertising revenue was $28.28 billion in the same period , just over half that of Google.

Google is the “king of advertising”

  In other words, TikTok cuts into Google’s heartland.
  Google faces a fundamental battle in 2022, which is related to the rise and fall of the future. It cannot tolerate sloppyness and laxity. However, in the context of more and more young people favoring TikTok, it is still unknown how effective it will be.
  In fact, Google has launched short video Shorts in a targeted manner, eager to compete with TikTok in an attempt to curb the rising trend of the latter’s traffic.
  Unfortunately, due to the lack of features, young people do not eat “imitation”, which has not caused much impact on TikTok.
  A private equity person told the Computer News: “It’s easy for Google to make short videos. It’s not just about having funds, technology, and talents. That’s a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition. There is no disruptive play, long-term layout, and strategic thinking. It is impossible to get rid of the fate of marginalization, and there is a fundamental difference between playing tickets and benchmarking.”
  Despite this, Google’s 2022 also has something to look forward to.
  First, launch the smart watch Pixel Watch, restart the wearable device business, or pave the way for the current hot metaverse, after all, wearable devices are an important entrance to the metaverse.
  Secondly, the venture capital business has entered a harvest period. Google’s investment income in the third quarter of 2021 was US$188 million, compared with US$26 million in the same period in 2020, with a year-on-year upward trend.
  Finally, the development of new energy vehicles is in full swing, and the demand for intelligent driving is also rising.
  All in all, although Google will have the biggest gain among the tech giants in the U.S. stock market in 2021, there are pacesetters like Amazon and Microsoft in the past, and TikTok in the back. Whether it can withstand the pressure and successfully accept the challenge in 2022, let us wait and see.