Development trend of the international arms control and disarmament situation in 2021

2020 is a year of troubles, disasters, and changes, and this is also true in the field of international arms control and disarmament. There are several points to watch for the development of the International Arms Control and Disarmament Conference in 2021:

Through the whereabouts of the United States, observe whether international arms control can “bottom out” In April 2009, the new US President Barack Obama gave a speech at Prague Square in the Czech Republic in response to the global demand for a “nuclear-free world”, promising that the United States will build a world without nuclear weapons. To a world of nuclear weapons. During Obama’s tenure, the United States and Russia reached the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” on further reduction of nuclear weapons, convened four global “nuclear security summits”, and reached a “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Agreement” (also known as “Iranian Nuclear Issues”) to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. The Nuclear Agreement”) has adjusted the U.S. nuclear policy. While reducing the importance of nuclear weapons in national security, it has also raised the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

The Trump administration pursues a unilateral foreign policy of “America First” and withdraws from a series of arms control treaties, including the Intermediate-Range-Range Treaty signed with the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the multilateral Open Sky Treaty, as well as the “Iranian Treaty”. The Nuclear Agreement also cancelled the signing of the Arms Trade Treaty, and has so far been unwilling to unconditionally extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia. The Trump administration has also allocated a large amount of funds for the development and deployment of nuclear weapons, the development of so-called “low-yield” nuclear warheads that can deter conventional warfare, and the deployment of missile defense systems and other strategic weapon systems that break strategic stability. These actions have led to the most severe situation since the end of the Cold War in the international arms control and disarmament situation.

Biden will take over the White House in 2021. Based on the analysis of his and his diplomatic and security team members, his arms control policy will be very different from Trump’s. For example, he advocated extending the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty”, striving to return to the “Iran Nuclear Agreement”, defining the use of US nuclear weapons as the “single goal” (ie, nuclear deterrence and nuclear counterattack), and renewed attention to the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. These differences in policies have created positive expectations. However, whether the process of international arms control can rebound from this bottom is still very uncertain.

Through the development of global peace forces, observe the twists and turns of the international arms control process. In the first 10 years of this century, there was a “nuclear-free world” movement that swept the world, leaders of many countries and international organizations, and the majority of The people are calling for effective measures to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, restrict or prohibit the use of nuclear weapons, and achieve the goal of complete destruction of nuclear weapons as soon as possible, so that human society will no longer be shrouded in the cloud of nuclear destruction. This movement has gone through a stage of extensive mobilization and has not disappeared, but has entered a more operational policy promotion and international legislative stage. For example, the “Elders Group” composed of former heads of state, government and leaders of international organizations lobbied all countries in the world in order to promote nuclear-weapon states to reach an agreement on “no first use of nuclear weapons.” The “Zero Nuclear Organization” has continuously launched joint initiatives on various anti-nuclear restrictions. In July 2017, the United Nations adopted the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and Honduras ratified the treaty as the 50th country in August 2020, which also made the treaty officially enter into force in January 2021. Although all nuclear-weapon states have not participated in the negotiation process of the treaty and have not signed the treaty, its influence as a treaty negotiated and signed within the UN mechanism cannot be ignored.

Through the tenth review meeting of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, observe whether the international community can reach a consensus and start again in August 2021. The tenth review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which is delayed by one year due to the new crown epidemic, will be held. The 189 members will evaluate their compliance with the obligations and commitments of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the implementation of the goals and requirements put forward by the Ninth Review Conference in the past six years. In order to enable the conference to achieve the expected goals, the United Nations and the treaty members are making preparations, strengthening dialogue, consultation and cooperation, and jointly promoting the smooth progress and complete success of the conference.

Through China’s efforts, observe how to implement the concept of a “ community with a shared future for mankind” in the field of arms control. First, as a nuclear country under the NPT mechanism, China will continue to abide by its treaty obligations and commitments and insist on “no first use”. “The nuclear policy promotes the diplomatic resolution of nuclear proliferation issues. Secondly, China will promote dialogue and cooperation in the five nuclear-weapon states mechanism, conduct exchanges and dialogues on issues such as strategic stability, strategic mutual trust, nuclear policy and nuclear strategy, risk reduction, and crisis management, and continue to lead the development of the fifth nuclear term working group of the five nuclear-weapon states. The second stage of work. China should also propose to other nuclear-weapon states to jointly declare that “nuclear wars cannot be won and should not occur”; promise to unconditionally not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states; clearly set the ultimate goal of the complete destruction of nuclear weapons and not seek to have nuclear weapons forever; negotiated. Treaties on the non-first use of nuclear weapons between each other, etc. Third, China will also treat any form of dialogue with an open attitude, including bilateral and multilateral dialogues and exchanges with the United States and other nuclear-weapon states on issues related to strategic stability.