On December 15, 2020, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader and Republican McConnell congratulated Biden and Harris on their elections to the U.S. President and Vice President, and ended his long silence about the results of the U.S. election.
Regarding US elections, one often hears the saying: The end of an election is the beginning of the next election. In the reality of American politics, although the results of an election will determine the political situation in the next two to four years and provide the most critical political environment for the next election, politicians of the Democratic and Republican parties may or If you are in power or dormant for a period of time, it is not necessary to ignite the flames of war immediately. Generally speaking, the midterm elections held two years after the presidential election can be regarded as a frontline for the final election. However, after Trump broke into the political core of Washington in 2016, this sense of rhythm was broken along with many other things. On the day of his swearing-in on January 20, 2017, Trump submitted documents to the Federal Election Commission to continue his candidacy and seek re-election, thus kicking off the prelude to 2020 in advance. After the 2020 election, Trump assumed a posture of refusing to admit defeat, and even spread speculation that he would directly announce his participation in the 2024 election before and after leaving office. Will Trump and Biden have a longer period of “overtime”, or even pass 2020 to 2024 dramatically?
“Trumpization” has nothing to do with Trump?
The precedent for Grover Cleveland’s re-election after leaving the presidency, Biden’s old election, and the key role of the epidemic as a sudden factor in the 2020 election, all invisibly urge Trump to regroup. Sex. But in any case, if the 2024 political attempt was announced in 2020, all the actual effect may only be Trump’s objective recognition of the result of the 2020 defeat. But this is not the traditional way of supporting the legitimacy of the new president and publicly endorsing the new president, but a destructive way to weaken the legitimacy of the new president as much as possible. It is precisely because of this so-called destructiveness that the Republican establishment with complex mentality is generally happy to see Trump’s non-confession after the election, and even intentionally encourages the Trump camp to initiate elections within the framework of the system. The resulting challenges are obviously aimed at attacking Biden by using Trump, who is hopeless in consumption, and laying the groundwork for the future checks and balances and impacts on the White House of the Democratic Party in Congress.
As far as Trump is concerned, saying goodbye to the White House in a special way of announcing the continued fighting in 2024 can at least maximize face saving and extend his political influence to a certain extent. Imagine that after his resignation, if he has to face many lawsuits, Trump, as a presidential candidate, can also operate these judicial charges as a so-called “political witch hunt” and turn judicial dilemmas into political struggles. It is justifiable to mobilize voters, create pressure from public opinion, and help oneself get through risks.
However, even if Trump, who has only been president for one term, is entitled to re-elect, whether the Republican Party will nominate him again is still a big question. Although after Trump’s defeat, discussions about the so-called “Trumpism” or “Trumpization” became more heated, the acceptance of “Trumpization” by the Republican Party does not mean that it must continue to accept Trump’s deity. . Trump was originally an “effect” rather than a “cause”, but after it became an “effect”, it immediately became a self-reinforcing “cause.” In other words, Trump’s departure will quickly make the world aware of what happened in the past four years is determined by the internal and external difficulties of the United States and is solidified by Trump’s personality, and which is determined by Trump’s personality. It is magnified by the power expansion trend of the US President. The former will be the “Trumpization” accepted by the Republican Party, while the latter may have nothing to do with the Republican Party’s future choices.
If Trump really wants to participate in the 2024 election, he must prove himself again. Historically, Herbert Hoover, who was defeated in 1928, also tried twice to participate in party nomination in order to return to the White House, but the Republican Party never gave the former president any chance. This means that the Georgia Senate elections to be announced on January 5, 2021, the Republican National Committee chairman reelections to be held in mid-to-late January, the New Jersey and Virginia governor elections to be held on November 2 and even the 2022 The mid-term elections are a crucial stage for whether and whether Trump will play the role of a super election helper. If Trump succeeds in ensuring that the candidate he supports wins and helps the Republican Party gain more seats and political space, his probability of being nominated by the Republican Party in 2024 again will increase.
Even if Trump does all of the above, coordination within the Republican Party will be quite difficult. Faced with Trump, who currently has 88 million Twitter followers, whether the young and strong will be willing to wait another four years is a question. If the Republican Party ultimately refuses to nominate Trump, he is fully capable and likely to repeat the scene of Old Roosevelt returning to the stage as a third-party presidential candidate in 1912. In that case, he will greatly disperse the Republican votes and instead leave the Democrats behind. White House.
Biden’s countdown pressure
Even if Trump did not trigger various conjectures about 2024, Biden had to face the major decision of whether to seek a second term. The 78-year-old newly elected president can imagine the difficulty of seeking re-election at the age of 82. If Biden does not seek re-election, he will become the first president since Rutherford Hayes, who was elected in 1876, to not actively seek re-election. Compared with the dilemma of insufficient votes when Hayes was elected, Biden’s victory was also due to unexpected factors such as the epidemic, but after all, he won a record-breaking vote scale. Unless his physical condition is completely impossible to allow, he will not seek re-election. There is also a lack of sufficient reasons.
Although after four years, the situation that Biden faces may not be easy, he is most likely to face the collective challenges of the new generation of Republicans. But after all, it will not officially start after 2022, and Trump’s “spoiler” is not ruled out. So even if the 2020 election is considered to be an endgame with “Biden won and the Democratic Party has not won”, 2024 will be artificial for the Democratic Party. , Not necessarily dismal.
However, if Biden announces in advance that he will give up his re-election in 2024, the time window within which he can fully advance his policy agenda as president will inevitably encounter a huge erosion of the election cycle. Imagine that if Biden does not stand in the election, the Democratic Party will start an invisible primary election battle from the end of 2022. By then, whether it is Vice President Harris or anyone else running for the election, it will surely distract Biden’s political resources and attention. In other words, Biden had to accept the embarrassing situation of the “dual-headed” co-ruling between the incumbent president of the Democratic Party and the presidential candidate two years after the beginning of his term. Therefore, Biden must at least figure out a way to maintain his influence until the end of this term. In order to achieve this goal, Biden must play the role of the so-called “king maker” in the 2024 Democratic primary elections in various ways, and the best way is actually to run for himself. Even if Harris takes over after the second term ends, it will have a better political and policy effect than letting Harris try to stand for election in 2024. In any case, Biden’s 2024 decision will have a major impact on the Democratic Party’s political agenda for the next four years.
What does 2024 mean
After four years of Trump’s administration and “Trumpization”, American politics will never go back to the past. The results of the 2020 general election did not effectively test some trends due to special factors such as the epidemic, but added some new potential possibilities. These can only be left to 2024 to verify.
Regardless of the reason, the 2020 results have given the U.S. domestic and foreign policy lines new choices. Whether the choice offered by the Democrats can be accepted in the long term will see the final result in 2024. For Republicans, 2020 may be more like a purification and extraction. Before 2020, what the outside world has observed is the “Trumpization” of the Republican Party. During Biden’s tenure, people may see the “Republicanization” of the “Trump legacy.” Therefore, if the Republican Party can return to the center of power in 2024, it will usher in a more fundamental “evolution.”
If Republicans win in 2024, there will be a rare situation of three party rotations in eight years. The successive occurrence of two presidents who belong to the two parties serving only one term is a situation that has never happened before in the history of American presidents. At that time, the world must not only pay attention to the continuity of the domestic and foreign policies of the two parties on some issues, but also consider what it means to the world that the United States has undergone a drastic policy swing in such a short time on other issues.