After being vacant for 4 months as the chief economist of Guotai Junan, in October 2016, Hua Changchun, chief economist of Nomura Securities, a large Japanese brokerage firm, took over Ren Zeping as the global chief economist of Guotai Junan Research Institute and led the macro research team . As a low-key chief economist, Hua Changchun has very little information in the media, which makes the outside world full of curiosity about him, and they speculate: Who is Hua Changchun?
Before serving as the global chief economist of the Guotai Junan Research Institute, Hua Changchun had a wealth of experience from securities firms to government agencies to international organizations. After graduating from Hitotsubashi University in Japan, Hua Changchun worked in Japan and Hong Kong in 2007. From June to September 2008, he worked as a research assistant at the Asian Development Bank Institute in Tokyo, Japan. From September 2008 to November 2010, Hua Changchun served as the relevant director of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
From November 2010 to June 2013, Hua Changchun worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund Hong Kong SAR Office of the IMF for 2 years and 8 months, starting in July 2013 , Worked for Nomura Securities (Hong Kong), Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited, and served as an economist for the securities firm. His research field is the Chinese economy.
Guotai Junan is the first stop for Hua Changchun to work in the Mainland. The global chief economist must not only base on China’s economic research, but also track the dynamics of the world economy, Hua Changchun’s experience in Japan and Hong Kong, and his concern for the Chinese economy Let him have a deeper knowledge and understanding of the position of chief economist.
The value of economists is ultimately reflected in forward-looking and influential
As the chief economist of a securities firm, Hua Changchun believes that the focus of economists in universities, government and market economists is different. For example, government economists mainly focus on how to do, how to solve some problems, and how to To improve the economy; in colleges and universities, it is necessary to discover the laws of the entire economic operation, innovate theories and use them to guide practice; and market economists, like the canaries in the coal mine, must be very sensitive to economic operations and be able to predict as soon as possible Judge the economic trajectory and turning point, explore where the economy is heading, whether it is turning, or exceeding expectations, etc., and lead the entire market expectation on this basis.
Therefore, in the eyes of Hua Changchun, the value of the chief economist is ultimately reflected in the influence of the government and the market on the basis of forward-looking economic operations. “Always Zhuge Liang afterwards, and shouting after others, it doesn’t make much sense.” Both the government and the market need to make accurate predictions of the economic trend as early as possible. If there is not enough research, it will always be an afterthought. In the government, such research will increase the procyclicality of policies; in the market, such Research is not only unguided for investment, it is more likely to become “leeks.” “The government often calls us to meetings to exchange situations and study some important topics, mainly to strengthen the research and judgment of the general trend of the global economy-this is also the first priority of our chief economist’s work.” The
second value is reflected in the chief. Economists should not only grasp the general trend of economic operation, but also have profound insights on issues including some social changes. For example, what are the major global trends (population aging, wealth gap, globalization, etc.), and the global politics and policy trends that are compatible with these trends. These issues are not entirely within the scope of economics, and many of them may be sociological issues. Therefore, economists also need to strengthen the study of social issues in order to better help judge the future economic trends.
The third value is to be a bridge between the government, the market and the enterprise. Going to corporate research and communicating with the market (investors), the government may be a little out of touch in this regard. When communicating with the government, it also helps the government truly understand the real ideas, needs and difficulties of the current enterprises and the market. In addition, the government naturally needs to guide enterprises and market expectations to maximize the effectiveness of policies. In this regard, market economists can help the government to communicate to enterprises and the market, and pass the government’s views and policy goals to the market and enterprises. . Therefore, the chief economist is a link that connects the three and is a channel for tripartite dialogue.
Therefore, the first is to do some truly forward-looking research, the second is to do more in-depth research to discover new trends in the economy and society, and third, to be able to bridge the gap between enterprises, markets and governments. On the basis of solid and enlightening research, we will show possible new trends to the government, enterprises and the market, what things must be avoided, what must be prepared in advance, and what risks and opportunities are there to exert their influence.
There is a market where there Vanity Fair
comes to forecasting accuracy economists, flower Changchun said accuracy is important for economists, but it is not particularly important, “predicted after the decimal point, 6% or 5.8,5.9, this Does something really make sense?” When it is not at the turning point, the importance of the forecast of these numbers also declines; only before the turning point can forward-looking forecasts be the most important. However, most of the time there is no turning point in the economy, and more in-depth research is very important in normal times.
Economists are faced with choices in the market. The market means Vanity Fair. To be noticed in Vanity Fair, to let everyone hear your voice and pay attention to you. This is determined by the competitive environment, so everyone Everyone will be faced with a choice. Either they often change and get slapped in the face, or there is no voice, each of them said the same. Almost all people make a choice between these two. Some people deliberately put forward different opinions. On the one hand, they want the market to notice you, and on the other hand, they can stir the hearts of the market; some people deliberately pursue accurate predictions and a deep understanding of the problem, but in many cases they will not Too deviated from market expectations. “My leader often asks me a question: You are wrong, but everyone knows that your point of view is good, or that you are right, but everyone does not notice your point of view, which is better? In real work, we In fact, you often choose between the two. Of course, the best result is that your point of view is different, and you are right! Therefore, we need to study economic operations as far forward and profoundly as possible ”
However, economic operations are very complex and are human behavior, so it is impossible to make accurate predictions all the time. Therefore, we should not criticize everyone’s choices. Hua Changchun said that he still tends to make some forward-looking predictions as soon as possible, and to verify the right or wrong view of this judgment for a quarter or two. Conduct research on companies and communicate with investors to find out where the previous judgment might be wrong, and what new situations can change your views? If in the follow-up research and investigation, it is found that some of the previous assumptions are not consistent with some of the previous assumptions, when you need to modify your predictions, you will also make timely adjustments to your opinions, “If the idea is kept in place, it is not foresighted. nature. ”
the key is to have a good researcher professionalism
for how to be a good researcher, flowers Changchun think, first, with professional knowledge, have a solid basic skills, not only to understand some basic common sense, but also should have some tools Grasp it and form its own research characteristics and framework.
Second, ethics compliance should be relatively objective, not too subjective, and must have compliance awareness, independent research, and not be artificially interfered by other interests.
Third, as an excellent researcher, we must develop a good habit of research. You can’t just rely on data for research. On the one hand, data quality is a problem. On the other hand, there are many types of macro data. Which one really represents the direction of economic operation? To get rid of the false and keep the truth, we need to investigate. Without investigation, there is no right to speak. Therefore, you should go to the company more in your spare time to see what the actual situation is. Hua Changchun specifically mentioned that this is something that many foreign banks do not have. Most of the foreign banks are overseas. They can only see economic data, while domestic economists can conduct research everywhere and gain insight into the actual situation.
When it comes to whether the chief economist’s voice is representative of an organization or an individual, Hua Changchun believes that it is actually inseparable. First, the outside world is unlikely to believe that the chief economist only speaks on behalf of individuals; second, as a rigorous economist, it is also unlikely to say it inside the company or outside the company. If such problems exist, That’s a problem with professionalism. Moreover, I have never heard of a company that requires its chief economist to discuss economic views from the company’s interests. Company leaders generally respect the independence of research.
However, there is indeed a phenomenon in reality. It is indeed possible for the same company to have two different voices on the macro economy. This is actually a problem in the team management mechanism. At present, in the domestic market, there are often two positions of chief economist and chief macro analyst for the establishment of macro research positions-this is a Chinese characteristic, and there is no such setting overseas. It is normal for people to have different views on economic operations. This normal difference of views may be due to the coexistence of the two positions of chief economist and chief macro analyst, which may cause a company to issue two kinds of differences in mechanism. the sound of.
If there are differences of opinion, first of all, it is the question of how the company operates and who is the real macro-responsible person. This must be clear. Some companies may imagine that the chief economist and the chief macro-analyst are two roles, one for the inside and the other for the outside, but in fact it is impossible to operate. “I personally feel that this is an embarrassing situation caused by the two positions of chief economist and chief macro analyst in current domestic economic research. I hope that in the future, domestic companies will stop setting up this position. If you have these two positions, you must at least straighten out the relationship in the mechanism to avoid artificial conflicts.”
Coordination of views, first of all, full internal discussion. In this process, it is normal for different people to have different views. If someone’s views are inconsistent, “then once our entire team makes a decision, we will finally It’s a normal pattern to make such a sound.” Hua Changchun said that different researchers can talk about their own views, but at least the general direction is the same, otherwise it will involve compliance issues. Therefore, a good researcher can also reflect professionalism in compliance and professional ethics.
Hua Changchun said frankly that, from the perspective of domestic occupations, every chief economist has a different path, but it is true that for most people, becoming chief has reached the professional ceiling.
Hua Changchun said that he likes a quiet state, and likes to read and write in his spare time. If he does, he will do research, go to the company to take a look, and get in touch with the market. When it comes to reading, he also recommended the two recently read books, “Lessons from History” and “The Fourth Turn”. Now the world may be facing the problem of redistribution of wealth. These two books are conducive to understanding the current world and the whole world. Socio-political and economic changes. Without breakthroughs in new technologies, 5G alone is definitely not enough. Although it is a new generation of information technology and digital economy, its volume is relatively small. Without breakthroughs in new technologies, the world is now We are still in the era of stock economy, and many of the economic growth in the past 10 years have relied on countercyclical policies. These two books can give people a lot of inspiration.