The sudden new crown epidemic in 2020 has severely impacted the global economic ecology and profoundly changed people’s lives. Looking forward to 2021, the research and development of vaccines will contain the virus to a certain extent and increase people’s confidence, and the changes to the technology sector’s track selection by the epidemic will be more profound and diverse.
In the electronics industry, 2021 is optimistic about the growth of the seven sub-tracks under the three main lines of production capacity, new applications and prosperity.
First, look at the main line of production capacity from the perspective of supply and demand. Among them, the domestic leading companies that continue to expand in power, panel and MLCC (chip multilayer ceramic capacitors) are most favored.
In terms of power devices, on the supply side, the epidemic has affected the production capacity of large overseas IDM factories, and 8-inch foundry production capacity is in short supply; on the demand side, overall demand is recovering in a pro-cyclical manner, especially the domestic demand for Alpha is obvious, and new energy vehicles have brought a significant increase. On the price side, we can see that MOSFET is the first to rise in price and continues to expand, and IGBT is expected to follow. Local power device manufacturers accelerate their growth and usher in significant performance flexibility.
In terms of panels, on the supply side, Korean manufacturers’ backward production capacity is about to withdraw completely. In the future, new supply will be limited, the industry will accelerate integration, and the concentration will increase significantly. On the demand side, the inventory of TV manufacturers is lower than the normal level. Sports events will bring a significant increase in 2021, and the trend of large size will drive continuous growth on the demand side. On the price side, prices will continue to rise in December 2020 and are expected to remain high in the first half of 2021. The mid-to-long-term dimension is expected to narrow fluctuations. The leading profit margin is expected to surpass the 2017 level, and the valuation has room for upwards.
In terms of MLCC, on the supply side, the process of localization of MLCC is accelerating; on the demand side, the cycle will usher in recovery in the short term, and the long-term demand will continue to improve driven by 5G, new energy vehicles and data centers. We are optimistic about the domestic expansion of production and the opportunity of domestic substitution. Manufacturers.
The epidemic has changed the way people socialize. Demands such as working at home have promoted the penetration of online and IOT new product industries. We are optimistic about the following two industries: server and wearable devices. The server industry, in the short term, is expected to usher in demand recovery; in the long term, benefiting from the growth of 5G application data, demand is expected to continue to improve, and we can pay attention to the leading manufacturers of upstream chip segments in the industry chain. In the wearable device industry, after Apple launched AirPods, the TWS wave was driven. The sales compound growth rate of TWS headsets from 2016 to 2018 reached 128%. The industry chain is maturing, the Android camp is growing faster, and the industry has begun to become multifunctional and intelligent. We will continue to be optimistic about the leading manufacturers in the TWS industry chain.
With the recovery of mobile phones and the penetration of 5G in 2021, the boom in the optical and 5G fields is expected to continue. In terms of optics, as the multi-camera of mobile phones continues to upgrade, the CIS market continues to grow. Mobile CIS is becoming differentiated, and 0.7U reshapes the competitive landscape. In addition, automotive CIS opens up new space for demand and is optimistic about leading optical track manufacturers. In terms of 5G, the impact of the epidemic has diminished marginally, and the smartphone industry has returned to normal demand levels. 5G communication capabilities have become an important selling point of mobile phones. Key brands will “standard” 5G in the second half of the year. The 5G replacement in 2021 is expected to boost the global 5G penetration rate beyond expectations. We are optimistic about sub-tracks that directly benefit from 5G, such as RF front-end companies.
The computer industry, smart cars, medical IT, financial IT and other fields are expected to experience better-than-expected prosperity in 2021.
Since 2020, the rapid rise of new energy vehicles has formed a catfish effect on the traditional car market, and traditional car manufacturers have begun to exert their efforts; it is expected that in the next 1-2 years, with related technological breakthroughs, catfish effect enhancement, and downstream market cultivation more mature, smart cockpits The penetration rate of products such as ADAS and ADAS is expected to accelerate.
Medical IT is a rare vertical field with sustained growth in informatization investment (rapid growth in total health expenditure combined with continuous increase in the proportion of IT investment) and continuous upgrading; as the epidemic is well controlled, the affected Drgs and electronic medical records will be interconnected in 2020 There is a high probability that interoperability, cloud-based upgrades of traditional IT architectures, and other requirements will achieve accelerated recovery in the context of the firm advancement of the medical security system reform.
Compared with the United States, there is still much room for development in the field of securities asset management and IT. The full registration system and T+0 expectations, as well as bond market reforms, etc., continue to bring industry development dividends in terms of transactions, with high industry concentration, and leading companies have a moat.
The general ERP cloud service market, infrastructure and IDC, network information security and other subdivisions will be able to maintain a good boom in 2021. (1) Under the trend of localization substitution, continue to be optimistic about the general-purpose cloud ERP market for large and medium-sized enterprises; (2) The capital expenditure of cloud computing/tech giants is the core indicator data for the purchase of cloud computing facilities and equipment. Since 2020, capital expenditures in North America, represented by Amazon, have remained high. Capital expenditures of Tencent and Alibaba in China have recovered strongly quarter by quarter, and the demand side of infrastructure is still in the upward cycle. At the same time, judging from the growth rate of indicators such as Internet access traffic and major cloud vendors’ capital expenditures, IDC demand remains strong. Head IDC companies have sustained growth: the supply of IDC resources in first-tier cities and surrounding areas is scarce, and the income level of a single cabinet is expected to maintain; the head companies benefit from the continuous growth of traffic data in the long-term, and the medium and short-term benefit from the increased investment of cloud vendors. (3) The network information security industry has entered an upward turning point in its prosperity from 2019. In the future, as the law becomes more and more perfect, the downstream will pay more attention to security, and the prosperity is expected to be maintained. At the same time, the industry competition pattern is fragmented, and the concentration is expected to increase slowly in the future. Head companies as a whole have relatively high barriers. In the long term, companies with excellent governance structures can be considered; in the short term, head companies with higher marginal improvement expectations and growth potential can be considered.
The media industry needs to focus on the development opportunities of video and local life services.
In the video industry, member price increases + advertisers’ demand for advertising resumes, which will drive long-term video performance growth in 2021. China Video has the opportunity to accelerate customer acquisition by increasing its investment in long-term video content, using high-quality content to pull in new content, and using PUGV for user retention. The large number of users of short videos + the proportion of high duration is expected to usher in the monetization harvest period and continue to incubate new businesses. In the field of local life, community group buying has become a new outlet, bringing explosive growth in user volume and GMV.
In the early stage of the game sector, due to factors such as the diminishment of epidemic dividends, increased competition for purchases, and delays in new products, it suffered a double-hit performance and valuation. However, the first half of 2021 is expected to re-enter the product release cycle. It is expected that the bottoming of industry performance growth will be completed in the first quarter. , The third quarter performance and valuation are expected to pick up simultaneously.
The supply clearing of the cinema sector is still continuing. After the epidemic, the market share of leading companies has increased significantly. In the short term, we can pay attention to the catalysis of the Spring Festival stalls on the industry’s prosperity. In the medium and long term, the leading cinema companies will dynamically optimize their stock cinema assets and continue to maintain their operating advantages. The optimization of the competitive landscape and the recovery of single-screen output are expected to boost valuations.
Affected by the economic restoration and the post-relocation of advertisers’ budgets due to the epidemic, the advertising market will show a certain degree of rebound in 2021. It is expected that the demand for building media will continue to pick up. The low base in the first half of the year will usher in high performance growth; giants will further rob traffic and ecologically Under the closed-loop construction, advertisers’ marketing budgets will be further concentrated on leading Internet groups and offline leading media.
The scale of the online education market is growing rapidly, but the cost of acquiring customers under burning money marketing is difficult to see in the short-term. With the entry of leading Internet giants and the increase of OMO construction by offline institutions, the future industry competition will remain fierce.
In the publishing industry, 2021 is optimistic about the performance rebound and valuation increase of companies with high-quality stock books and best-selling new book production capabilities.
The free reading model has brought increments to the online reading market, but at the same time, industry competition is also intensifying. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies that develop synergistically between the channel side and the content side.