I like to talk about issues in the field of men and women. It would be even more interesting if you can give effective economic improvements to the behavior of people in these stories.
Many researchers on socio-demographic issues in China have a concern, that is, the imbalance between men and women. It is said that this ratio has now reached 116:100 (male to female). It is easy for scholars to think of a problem, that is, many men will not find a spouse because of this, and then, the uncomfortable bachelors will have trouble everywhere. This may become a social stability issue.
I don’t know if you feel that way: There is no such thing as a large number of men without a spouse due to the imbalance between men and women in China’s first and second tier cities. On the contrary, I feel that the number of single women around 35 years old is increasing year by year, and their number is greater than that of men of the same age without a spouse.
This is not without basis. I made the judgment based on the previous statistics of the population’s marriage situation. The ratio of unmarried females over 35 to unmarried males over 35 is about 7:1.
Objectively speaking, from my point of view, there is no significant difference between unmarried women around the age of 35 and married women of the same age in appearance, conduct, occupation, and wealth. So why in China, where the proportion of men is higher, many outstanding first- and second-tier cities have become the mainstream of older unmarried women?
Maybe we can use game theory to explain this problem (I like this way), that is, the genius John Nash mentioned in the movie “Beautiful Mind” obsessively researches the areas where his nerves go wrong.
All right. Let’s design a model.
Let’s first assume that this is a speed dating event for men and women with three men and three women-I do not discriminate against homosexual behavior, but this article only discusses heterosexual marriage issues for the time being, or it is too complicated.
For narrative convenience, give these six people a simple name. The females are called Reba, Shuying, and baby; the males are Yang Qianxi, Zitao, and Degang.
After a night of mutual understanding, these people all have a concept of the opposite sex in the activity. We use the following table to express:
In this situation, there are two alternative paths to determine the probability of men and women finding their ideal objects in the matchmaking activity. They are the male active pursuit path and the female active pursuit path.
According to customs, it seems that men should be more active in the process of dating, whether in China or other societies we know well. So let’s take a look at the matching results of men who actively pursue women.
Degang and Zitao both like Reba the most, and these two guys will compete for the same girl. From Reba’s point of view, she likes Yang Qianxi the most, but she was not pursued by him, so if she was asked to choose one from Degang and Zitao, she would choose Zitao according to the order.
In large cities where women are highly professional, the probability that girls refuse to make do with a spare baby is quite high, and a large group of older unmarried young women has also emerged.
Next, Degang did not get the favor of Reba, so he should start to pursue the second favorite baby. Baby is ranked third in the favorite rankings of Zitao and Yang Qianxi, so no one pursues except Degang. And she herself ranked Degang’s like second place, and it was relatively rational to accept Degang’s love.
The rest is Yang Qianxi, he likes Shuying the most, if he is successfully matched with Shuying, he should be most satisfied.
Then, the matching method that men actively pursue comes out:
Zitao vs Reba
Degang vs baby
Yang Qianxi vs Shuying
In this pairing, Yang Qianxi, Zitao, and Degang could no longer find a better match. If only considering the path of men pursuing women, this combination is the best for every boy, which is the so-called “Nash equilibrium”, and for these six people, this pairing method is Pareto Optimal.
Some readers say that some sentences in my article are difficult to understand. If the previous sentence belongs to the series of difficult to understand, you can completely ignore it. This does not affect the understanding of the entire article.
From the girls’ point of view, the results were not particularly satisfactory. The most obvious one is Shuying. She only matched her third favorite, which is the spare tire. If she is a woman with a bit staunch personality, she is likely to adopt an attitude of “preferring not to overrun” and reject Yang Qianxi—this speed dating activity has no rules, and every woman must find her ideal person at the end of the activity.
If you give a score to the overall attractiveness of the women in this example, for example, a boy’s first favorite position gets 3 points, the second favorite gets 2 points, and the third favorite gets 1 point, then the scores of three girls The order of numbers is: Reba 8 points, Shuying 6 points, and baby 4 points.
Shuying is a girl with a medium score. If she can’t bear to be with the spare tire, she will remain single. The shadows in this model probably represent those girls in first- and second-tier cities who are around 35 years old and have no spouse. Their overall charisma is medium or better, and they have personality-this is also in line with my feelings in life.
Of course, don’t forget that there is another path in this case, which is the active pursuit mode of girls. The logic of its deduction is the same as that of men’s active pursuit.
Reba and baby both like the Qianxi first, and Qianxi puts Reba second and baby third, so he and Reba will be paired successfully. Then, Shuying will pursue his favorite Zitao. Zitao likes Reba the most, but Reba is already with Yang Qianxi, so he who likes shadows secondly will accept shadows. Baby lost his second favorite Degang and started chasing after her second favorite Degang. Degang did not get Reba, so it’s good to be with her second favorite baby.
Then, the matching result of the female active pursuit model is:
Reba vs. Ocean Thousand Seals
Shuying vs Zitao
baby vs degang
From the results, in the model of women actively pursuing men, women’s satisfaction with the matching results has been greatly improved. And no girl would rather be in short supply because she can only be with the spare tire or even the spare tire of the spare tire.
Through the game theory model above, we can find the cause and solution of the problem—older girls in first- and second-tier cities still do not have suitable spouses. It is probably because our society still recognizes the marriage model of men pursuing women more. In large cities where women are highly professional, the probability that girls refuse to make do with a spare baby is quite high, and a large group of older unmarried young women has also emerged.
how to solve this problem? Quite simply, if girls can take the initiative to pursue the boy they like, instead of waiting for the golden turtle to come, the marriage happiness of the older unmarried young women in our society will be greatly improved.
How much is this improvement? It can be quantified according to the above model.
Girls match their favorite boy with a score of 3, followed by a favorite score of 2, and again a score of 1. In this way, in the male active system, the total score of the three girls is 5 points; in the female active system, the total score of the three girls rises to 8 points-an increase of 60%!
This improvement is really great.