Q: Only from the perspective of individual users, use products and services to judge a company as a good company-does this perception help investment?
A: It’s helpful, and it’s good to be able to hold it for a long time. Moreover, I have observed a phenomenon that the rate of return of investment based on this simple method is often much higher than that of active researchers who pull the decimal point of the financial report.
It is possible that this is the most valuable “fuzzy correctness”. Product services can occupy the minds of users, indicating that the company’s business has a moat; the company’s management can maintain product and service advantages for a long time, indicating that the corporate culture is good; ignore details to avoid the impact of short-term performance fluctuations and stock price fluctuations on the company’s “quality” due to too small particles Judgment affects the long-term holding of this behavior. In the end, it was all right and made a lot of money.
Q: In the case of optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects, how to control the emotional impulse to be safe?
A: This is not a control problem, but a cognitive problem in essence: 1. If you think that the income comes from the growth of the company’s performance rather than the stock price fluctuations, then you will not have the “impulsion” to be safe, if you are not like this Think, then you can’t “control” it. 2. If you think you have the ability to make money from stock price fluctuations, then there is no need to control it. Isn’t it good to sell high and buy low? If you think you can’t make this money, then you won’t have this “impulse.”
Q: What should I do if I have money but the investment target is too expensive? It is not a good time to start.
A: Then don’t buy it. What’s so annoying about it. Isn’t it good to buy into a currency fund and earn interest?
Q: Guangdong Expressway B is 40% cheaper than Guangdong Expressway A. Is liquidity really worth the discount?
A: It’s worth noting that everyone decides on their own, so if you buy this, you can’t hope that B will rise to A, and even be prepared. Even if B is cheaper, it may continue to fall. However, another way of thinking is that from the perspective of dividend returns, it is more cost-effective to buy B, and if the stock price continues to fall, it will be more cost-effective.
Q: How to quickly identify the texture of a company?
A: It’s difficult to identify quickly. Generally speaking, I have to look at it for five years and ten years to get a superficial view of a company or an industry.
Q: How to judge whether a person is suitable for stock investment?
A: 1. Make money in the long run. 2. The logic of making money can be stated clearly. 3. Investment itself does not constitute anxiety or trouble in his life.
Q: What are the best industries for secondary market investment?
A: I prefer industries that meet spiritual needs, and Internet industries that have network effects. As for whether they are good or not, I don’t know.
Q: Do you think the current valuation of Nasdaq is overvalued or reasonable?
A: Not cheap.
Q: How do you view the current Sino-US trade friction?
A: Trade friction is an integral part of trade. The purpose of trade friction is trade, and friction is a means. Isolationism is a real emotion, but this logic is not feasible in today’s world.
Q: How many years of operation of a private equity product can roughly reflect the investment level of fund managers? Is 3 years enough?
A: Time is just a scale. If only from the perspective of time, only one person completely withdraws from the market, we can determine whether he has the ability to invest. There have been a large number of cases in the past, and there was a case where an investor’s performance had been excellent and eventually lost all his money. This “always” period may exceed 10 years. At the same time, there are a large number of cases. The investment performance of a certain investor at a certain stage seems to be very poor. This “certain stage” may be as long as 3 years, and in a longer period of time he has been proved to be able to create excess An excellent investor in income, this person may be called Buffett. So methodology may be more important than time. I think it generally includes:
1. His investment philosophy and investment strategy are clearly stated and logically self-consistent.
2. His actual investment operation and performance are consistent with his investment philosophy and investment strategy.
Q: If Huawei is listed on the U.S. stock market, will the U.S. start so heavily?
A: I don’t know. But what I know is that many U.S. companies have been bankrupted by their own governments, and they have started more heavily.
Q: Both are franchises. Compared with banks, whose business model is better at airports?
A: If it is the same valuation level, I think the airport is better. The airport is a one-time capital investment, and the bank is a continuous capital investment.
Q: Is real estate the best track?
A: Real estate is the largest category of commodities, which can generate large enough profits, so it supports a large enough market value. Real estate development has a certain scale effect. There is no network effect. Scale expansion requires continuous capital investment. Therefore, the market share of a single enterprise will not be too high, and competition leads to a ceiling in profitability. Both the consumption and development of real estate are highly leveraged, so the impact of economic fluctuations and cycles will be magnified.
Q: Tencent or Apple, whose moat is stronger?
A: I think Tencent’s moat is stronger. If, I mean, if you can’t install WeChat on Apple phones, or the App Store can’t download WeChat, then do you abandon Apple phones or WeChat?
Q: BYD, whose shares have soared recently, has done a lot of business, but the market believes that Yili should not be engaged in aquatic products. Which is better for companies with diversified strategies and strategic focus?
A: First of all, if the stock price rises and falls, especially short-term stock price rises and falls, are used as the standard to measure the company’s pros and cons, there will never be an answer, because the answer changes every day. In essence, these are two values or ways of thinking: diversified companies think that they lack opportunities, and focused companies think that they lack capabilities. From a business perspective, I think that any individual’s ability and company’s resources are limited. Therefore, continuous and focused investment in specific industries and links is more conducive to building a company’s competitive advantage.
Q: Small restaurants and small clothing stores that are mom-and-pop shops seem to be easy to go straight to a well-off or even wealthy. Why are listed companies in the catering and clothing sectors not good investment targets?
A: This question is very interesting. There are two types of catering businesses that have a higher survival probability: one is a mom-and-pop shop—husband cooks dishes and wife carries dishes, which can often be opened for decades; the other is standardized catering. The reason why mom-and-pop shops have a high probability of survival is that both of them are shareholders and the incentives are sufficient, so they can maintain a high quality of work. Once the scale of their business is expanded and they are mainly hired, and the process cannot be standardized, the quality of their business will definitely collapse. It is difficult to create shareholder value in this type of business.
What the catering industry can create shareholder value is basically the standardization of business processes. McDonald’s and KFC are typical examples. A large number of interns can make burgers and fries with a little training. In Chinese food, the main category that creates shareholder value is hot pot, because hot pot does not rely on chefs, and the process can be standardized as much as possible.
Clothing stores are also two types of stores that may survive better: one is a retail store that relies on the owner’s ability to choose money and service level, which can only create shareholder value for the operator (boss), and cannot expand the scale by hiring others, nor can it provide outsiders. Capital creates shareholder value; the other is chain stores, behind which there is brand support, and the process is standardized, so that shareholder value can be created, but it is all on the brand side.
Q: Is socializing with strangers a good business?
A: It is very close to trading and it is easy to make money. However, the network effect of the business itself is not strong, so it will face competition.