Recently, the liquidity risk in the European and American markets has eased. The G20 began to work together to fight against the epidemic. The global stock market has rebounded. Domestic policies are expected to increase. The darkest moment of A shares may pass, and the dawn is coming, ushering in a staged rebound. However, in the future, the global anti-epidemic is still in a difficult time, and the market may still be cloudy and sunny. To truly enter the sunny trend, it still needs to wait for the overseas epidemic inflection point and domestic fundamental data to rebound.
It is not at the stage of the financial crisis. The valuation after the market panic fell has been very attractive, and the recent sharp drop in the white horse stocks is a signal for the market to bottom out. Because value stocks have the characteristics of high dividends, white horse stocks have stable earnings, and the market has fallen to a certain extent. When the stock-debt comparison shows that the stock market is obviously attractive, the market naturally rebounds from the bottom. From a medium-term perspective, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 2440 points in 2019 is equal to 998 points in 2005. 2440 points is the starting point of the sixth round of the A-share bull market. The bull market has three logics: the bull and bear cycle revolves, the bottom line of corporate profits rebounds, and the majority of assets are biased towards the stock market. . The new crown pneumonia epidemic does not change the trend of the bull market. This epidemic has changed the profit rhythm, making corporate profits rebound from the bottom of the arc in 2019Q3 to the bottom of W in 2019Q3-2020Q1. The cumulative net profit of A shares to the mother is 10% year-on-year, which is still higher than 8% in 2019. The other two logics are not broken. The impact of the epidemic is only phased. The bull market that started on the Shanghai Composite Index at 2440 points did not end. 2440-3288 points is the bull market 1 wave rise. 3288 points has been the bull market 2 wave callback. From the wave theory, the entire wave structure of the 2 wave callback It has been completed, and the small abc wave structure of 2 waves c has been completed since 3127. Although for A-shares, the darkest moment of the financial crisis may be over, and the short-term market will rebound gradually, but in the future, the market may still be cloudy and sunny, and there will be repeated, really step into the sunny bull market 3 waves rise We need to wait until the peak of newly diagnosed overseas, the stability of overseas financial markets and the recovery of domestic fundamental data, we still need to be patient.
There have been many corrections in the white horse stocks recently, and the matching of earnings valuation has already been obviously attractive. The early correction of white horse stocks was greatly affected by the short-term outflow of foreign capital, but the trend of internationalization of A shares remained unchanged. On March 23, the third batch of the first phase of FTSE Russell A shares was officially put into effect. The net inflow of foreign capital is expected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2020. After the correction, the attractiveness of the allocation of white horse stocks will increase. Moreover, stimulus policies on consumption will not be ruled out in the future. The Politburo meeting on March 27 proposed to expand residents’ consumption, increase public consumption reasonably, start consumption in physical stores, and keep the new online consumption hot. Starting from March 27, Hangzhou has successively issued 1.68 billion yuan of consumption coupons to all employees in Hangzhou. Prior to this, Nanjing, Jiangsu also announced the distribution of 318 million yuan of consumption coupons to Nanjing citizens. From a medium-term perspective, the fundamentals will pick up again after the epidemic, and the market will eventually enter the bull market three waves. Drawing on history, the differentiation of industry performance during the 3 waves comes from the differentiation of profit growth, and the leading industries in line with the characteristics of the times are better profitable.
The industry direction of the new era is informatization and service, and technology + brokerage is the leading industry in this bull market. First of all, from the perspective of industry fundamentals, the new round of science and technology represented by 5G has just begun. This fundamental recovery is expected to continue for two years, from hardware to content, software, and application scenarios, which will continue to spread from electronics in 2019 to the new energy vehicle industry chain, computer, and media in 2020. Secondly, the new infrastructure in the hedging policy of the epidemic is exerting force. At the end of 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference first mentioned “strengthening the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and Internet of Things”. The construction of new infrastructure mainly includes: artificial intelligence, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, 5G infrastructure, UHV, high-speed rail and rail transportation, industrial Internet. The increase in investment in new infrastructure has begun, which has helped the fundamentals of the technology industry to pick up. The other main line is securities companies. Under the background of deepening financial supply-side reforms, the proportion of direct financing in China will increase in the future. On February 14, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a new refinancing regulation, which will increase the leverage ratio of securities companies and thus promote The performance has improved and the caliber is comparable. As of Q3 2019, A-share brokerage ROE (TTM) was only 6.2%, while in 2018 US stock brokerages were 12.7%. With the increase in leverage, brokerages are expected to improve their profitability. At the same time, the increase in market turnover will boost the profitability of securities firms. The trading volume of the three waves of the bull market is 1.6-2.5 times that of the first wave. This time the average daily turnover of A-shares in the first wave of the bull market is 630 billion yuan. It is expected that the average daily turnover of A-shares in 2020 will exceed 1 trillion yuan. Brokerage profits increased.
With the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic around the world, “Doom Food” is selling like hot cakes, and some people even build an underground refuge for themselves in response to the Doomsday crisis. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union fought for hegemony, and nuclear war was on the verge. Many countries were building “doom bunkers”.
U.S. builds wartime refuge from top to bottom
With the escalation of the US-Soviet Cold War tensions in the 1950s, Americans lived in the panic that the Soviet Union would launch a nuclear weapon attack. How to survive a nuclear attack has become the topic of greatest concern to Americans. So, from the US government to the common people, various “doom bunkers” came into being
“Bunker Congress” can accommodate thousands of people
In 1949, the Soviet Union successfully detonated the first atomic bomb, American society suddenly fell into a huge panic, and the media clamored that the Third World War was about to trigger. In the face of great danger, U.S. President Eisenhower at that time called on people to store food and decided to build secret “wartime refuges” across the country, while also allowing people to build basements in their backyards as underground bunkers after the outbreak of nuclear war. In response to a possible nuclear war. So throughout the United States, those qualified families began to build underground shelters in the basement and backyard that could protect against radiation, and community shelters began to be built under municipal buildings.
“Bunker Congress” can be said to be a very important refuge in wartime. According to the plan of the US government, if a nuclear war breaks out, more than 1,000 members of Congress and their aides will be transferred to the bunker, where they will live and maintain the normal operation of Congress. Considering that the lawmakers all have family members, the bunker will also accommodate the family members of the lawmakers. The site selection was quite troublesome. In the end, the US government set its sights on the town of White Sulphur Spring, 400 kilometers away from Washington, where there is a luxury hotel called Green Rose. This hotel was once the favorite place of Hollywood stars and British nobility. It is located in the Allegheny Mountains, which helps to prevent the spread of nuclear radiation. The transportation is convenient, connected by highway, railway and airport.
In 1959, the hotel started this huge secret project in the name of “expansion and renovation”. The bunker was formally completed and put into operation in 1961. The bunker is located at a depth of 19.5 meters below the hotel, and there are 6 to 18 meters thick compartments between the bunker and the hotel. The concrete walls of the bunker are 1.2 meters thick. The area of the bunker reaches 10,000 square meters. The entire project cost about US $ 14 million at the time. The bunker has the necessary daily necessities and stores a lot of food. There is an independent power station, water purification system, air filtration system and a medical room that can accommodate 12 beds, enough for the people inside to survive for 60 days. There is also a TV studio, “The government can use it to deliver a speech to the whole country.” For more than 30 years after the “Bunker Congress” was completed, it has been on standby at all times. The government has arranged 70 people to take charge of its daily operations, regularly replace the food in the granary, and update all related equipment at any time to ensure that the bunker can be put into use at any time.
The whole people build a “grandma kitchen”
At the same time, the construction of the American “doom bunker” is also in full swing. The US government has introduced a corresponding tax exemption policy, mobilizing the public to actively build a basement to serve as a refuge for nuclear war. At the same time, the US Civil Defense Department began to distribute and guide various engineering manuals to the public. For a time, the American family started a wave of “digging pits to build shelters in the backyard.” Almost every household mobilized on Saturdays and Sundays to start building in the backyard. Many commercial construction companies took advantage of this business opportunity and sold various nuclear war havens to the American people.
When the American people build a basement, they don’t just dig a pit, they also build a toilet and food storage room in the basement. The US Federal Civil Defence Agency requires that each family store at least 7 days of food and water in the event of an emergency in the event of a nuclear weapon attack. To encourage people to build such a reserve, the US Federal Civil Defence Agency also launched an initiative called “Grandma Kitchen”. The slogan of the initiative is “Grandma is always ready to respond to emergencies” because the kitchen supplies under Grandma’s control are always full. In order to be informed of the situation on the ground in a timely manner, the instruction manual also recommends that the public be equipped with small radios in the basement in order to listen to the latest broadcasts in time.
Civil defense level continues to decrease
After taking office as President of the United States, Kennedy proposed that it is impossible for all refuges to have the defense against direct nuclear bomb strikes. This is equivalent to building a huge concrete bunker throughout the North American continent. He advocated large-scale construction of refuges in the country that can withstand the effects of nuclear radiation after a nuclear explosion. He believes that the power of the people is limited, and the government should fund the construction of large-scale professional nuclear shelters.
In spite of this, many people still believe in the government and are more keen to build shelters in their backyards. Businesses have seen huge business opportunities. Dozens of manufacturers sell nuclear radiation shelters, some of which cost more than $ 4,000. The exact number of nuclear radiation shelters built by the United States is unknown, but it is estimated that there were about 200,000 shelters in the United States in 1965.
Kennedy was assassinated in 1963, and Linden Johnson succeeded the United States President. After the new government came into power, the priority of civil defense was reduced. The official U.S. historical document on the civil defense program writes, “This topic is slowly no longer being noticed by the public, and President Johnson has allowed the interest in this topic to decline further.” ▲
The safest place in Moscow, Soviet bunker No. 42
During the Cold War, there was a secret military bunker underground in the Soviet capital Moscow. It was located 65 meters underground and covered an area of 7,000 square meters. Once a nuclear war broke out between the Soviet Union and the US, this bunker would serve as a nuclear bunker for Soviet leaders.
In 1951, the Soviet government started the construction of the “Taganski Protected Command Point” underground only three kilometers from the Kremlin. The entire construction process was strictly confidential. This underground complex was built using the technology of building subways. The tunnel complex can be connected to the Moscow Metro through two secret passages for transporting materials and facilitating the transfer of people. This facility is built deeper than the Moscow Metro, and you can hear the subway roaring overhead in the bunker. In 1956, the “Tagansky Protected Command Point” was built, and the top Soviet Union called it FS-572, which was later called the Bunker 42, which was inspired by the “Manhattan Project” developed by the United States to develop an atomic bomb.
After the bunker 42 was completed, it was used as an emergency command headquarters and a long-range aviation communication center. As expected, in the event of a war with the United States, Soviet leaders will be escorted here to avoid the ongoing nuclear strikes initiated by the United States. This large nuclear anti-war bunker is composed of underground caves, steel plates, rails, and communication, command, and survival support systems. The personnel are rotated in the facility every 24 hours. According to people familiar with the matter, during the Cold War, there were many people including telegraph experts, broadcasters, and laboratory scientists. The safety of the bunker was the responsibility of the soldiers with live ammunition.
In 1962, the Cuban missile crisis, the most serious confrontation incident between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, almost became a thermonuclear war. During the crisis, Bunker 42 had everything it needed to fight a nuclear attack. The outer wall of the bunker was made of metal and concrete. Its thickness could withstand the impact of two Hiroshima-style atomic bombs. Food, fuel, and two artesian wells that provided clean drinking water for a long time Wait for everything. Under the shadow of the nuclear war, the highest Soviet commander stationed in Bunker 42, Soviet officers and soldiers watched the large screen in front of the console. If a US nuclear bomb was launched, the “nuclear bomb attack” alarm would sound and the Soviet Union would immediately carry out a nuclear counterattack . According to the Soviet plan, in the nuclear war, Bunker No. 42 as “the safest place in Moscow” can support 3000 people to work and live for 90 days without external assistance. The Soviet leadership will be in this bunker-type wartime command center Command the fighting in various places.
By the mid-1970s, the technical problems of Bunker No. 42 were backlogged, including the lack of waterproof protection, the aging of diesel generators and ventilation systems, and the Soviet government decided to rebuild some of the bunkers. During the Cold War, the Soviet government had always designated Bunker 42 as a forbidden zone. The outside world did not even know of the existence of this “doom bunker”. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian government once wanted to transform Bunker 42 into the office of the Central Telegraph Bureau, but this plan was not implemented. In 1995, Bunker 42 was finally exposed. It was later purchased by a private company and transformed into an entertainment complex. ▲
Canadian Diffin bunker prepares for nuclear war
Canada is close to the United States. As a close ally of the United States, if the United States and the Soviet Union go to war, they will be affected. To this end, during the climax of the Cold War, Canada built dozens of “doom bunkers”, the most famous of which is the Diffin bunker.
In 1958, Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker initiated the top-secret “government continuity” project on the recommendation of a group of military politicians. He authorized the construction of nearly 50 emergency government headquarters across Canada to serve as a Refuges at all levels of government have preserved the state machinery and can rebuild the country as soon as possible after the nuclear war. One of the bunker construction sites selected by the Canadian military is located in the rural community of Kapu about 30 kilometers west of the capital Ottawa. It is adjacent to the highway across Canada, which facilitates the rapid evacuation of the Canadian central government, and Kapo ’s geological conditions are also conducive to resisting nuclear bomb shock waves. Impact. In 1959, the construction of the Kapu bunker began. In order to hide people’s eyes and ears, the nuclear bunker project was implemented in the name of the Army’s communications facility emergency project.
It takes 32,000 tons of concrete and 5,000 tons of steel to build this four-layer underground bunker. Like the “doom bunker” of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the building standard of the bunker is top-level, and it must be able to withstand a distance of 1.8 million kilometers and 5 million tons The violent impact of the nuclear bomb explosion. According to the plan, engineering staff built a large number of explosion-proof doors and air filters on the surface of the bunker to prevent radiation penetration. The bunker was built in 1962.
After the completion of the Kapu bunker, it was named the Difen bunker under the name of Prime Minister Difenbeck. Of all the emergency government headquarters that were built successively, the Difen bunker was the largest (more than 9,300 square meters) and the only one in the Ottawa area in the nuclear war Under the circumstances, the bunker for the placement of military and political officials of the central government. A large amount of food, fuel, fresh water and other supplies are stored in the bunker. It can sustain 565 people for a month without outside logistics support. After the Difen Bunker is put into use, it maintains a 100 to 150-person operation team and is on duty 24 hours a day, ready to welcome the Canadian central government to settle in.
In October 1962, the Cuban missile crisis occurred and the United States and the Soviet Union were on the verge of a nuclear war. Prime Minister Difenbeck was deeply disturbed by the US government ’s failure to report the crisis. The Secretary of Defense and the heads of the armed forces of the armed forces secretly ordered the nuclear war alert state. The Soviet nuclear war started, and the key members of the Canadian center will immediately withdraw to the Difen bunker. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation built an emergency broadcasting studio in the bunker. In addition, in order to preserve the Canadian Central Bank’s gold reserves, a solid underground vault was specially built in the Dieffen bunker to ensure the safety of the gold reserves. Fortunately, the crisis was lifted and the Difen Bunker was not used.
For a long time, only the top level of the Canadian government knew of the existence of the Dieffen bunker. To prevent the outside world from knowing the secret of the bunker, the Canadian government deliberately disguised it as an ordinary facility, like an ordinary warehouse. It has been on alert for 32 years after the Difen Bunker was completed. After the end of the Cold War, the Diefen Bunker completed its historical mission, and it was later converted into a Cold War History Museum.