“Black Swan” and “Anti-Vulnerability”

“The Black Swan incident is bound to happen, and only anti-fragile companies can survive.”

This sentence comes from the anti-fragile book by Taleb, an American risk management theorist. “Black swan” refers to an unpredictable major rare event that has changed everything unexpectedly, such as the epidemic we encountered. “Anti-fragility” means: after encountering the unexpected blow of uncertainty, it is not just a matter of waiting and waiting. As long as you deal with it properly, not only can you reduce losses, but you can also benefit from rebounding against the trend.

So, how to strengthen the anti-fragile reserves of enterprises?

Empower organizations. Building an agile team that responds to uncertainty is a top priority. The book “Empowerment” points out that the basis of the management model in the new period is that it must be able to adapt flexibly to various changes in the situation. Therefore, rapid response, real-time innovation, and real-time problem solving become necessary. This requires integrated and transparent leadership, while empowering each team member.

Low energy survival. Energy consumption theory states that only low-energy survival methods can sustain species. Based on this, “spike-style” survival has become a possible and effective method for enterprises to respond to extraordinary times. Of course, it is not only about “energy saving and emission reduction” type cost management, but also focuses on the stimulation of corporate and individual potential.

Reinventing marketing. Temporarily holding a Buddha’s leg is like patching. It has a lot of limitations and a strong sense of disobedience, so it’s more chaotic and busy. After all, marketing is a systematic project, and it takes a holistic approach. Therefore, in order to win the market battle, we must clearly understand the essence from the crisis, gain insight into the future marketing direction, and plan ahead in the direction of product types, link systems, and borderless channels.

Introspection and extension. Internally, you can check whether your business model has core competitiveness, such as whether the product has its own traffic, whether it matches the appropriate channels, and whether it guarantees a reasonable profit. Externally, can you grasp the opportunity point and window period, such as takeaway, Live broadcast, shared collaboration, home service, community community, community partner, retaliatory consumption, etc. Of course, it is also necessary to make a clear judgment about which business practices are emergency measures in a specific environment and which emergency measures also have commercial megatrends. If the epidemic is over, home services will decline, and “channel + community + live broadcast” will become a business model.

Stay close to users. Enterprises should treat users as living individuals, not traffic data. If it’s just traffic, the business goes down and nothing will happen; if traffic is run as a friend, even if the business goes down, these friends and users with strong relationships still exist, and they will become amplifiers for new businesses and new businesses.

It is true that black swan will appear from time to time, and the corresponding anti-fragile reserve must also be multi-dimensional, comprehensive and flexible, but no matter how the line of defense is cast, the ultimate direction is the user. Only by staying with customers can the company gain vitality, and only customers are the decisive factor for growth. Because whether the company is adversity or adversity, the ultimate problem solved is the customer problem.