When to buy an electric car?

Electric cars will replace fuel cars, and no one doubts that. It ’s just that everyone is still not sure when the sales of electric vehicles will surpass the fuel vehicles and achieve a complete overturn.

Not long ago, the media reported that the North American vice president of Volkswagen said: “The tipping point” for electric vehicles is approaching. The reason is that the price of electric cars will soon approach the fuel car, and once the price is flat, people’s enthusiasm for buying will be detonated.

Now, major car giants have their own electrification schedules. Let’s find out when electric vehicles will enter our lives in their plans.

Car giants’ electrification schedule

Volkswagen is conducting a $ 50 billion electric vehicle promotion plan worldwide, with the goal of rapidly expanding the scale of electric vehicles and lowering their costs to the level of fuel vehicles.

It can be said that Volkswagen has completely turned to electric cars. On the eve of the Shanghai Auto Show in April, the CEO of Volkswagen Group Dis said to the media: In the foreseeable future, electric cars are the only option. Volkswagen Group plans to launch about 70 pure electric models by 2028 and deliver 22 million vehicles worldwide, of which more than half will be from China.

If you think that 2028 is still far away and there is no concept of the number of 22 million vehicles in the world, then look at the goals of Volkswagen in China. Diss has stated that by 2025, Volkswagen Group’s electric vehicle production capacity in the Chinese market will reach 1.5 million units, accounting for 20% -25% of the Group’s total automotive production in China. In other words, by 2025, one-fifth to one-quarter of Volkswagen’s car production in China will be electric cars.

In 2018, the Volkswagen Group was the world’s largest automobile sales leader, with 10.83 million vehicles sold. Ranked second in sales is Toyota, with 10.52 million units sold.

What about Toyota’s electrification schedule? On June 7, Toyota Motor held a press conference in Tokyo. Executive Vice President Shige Shigeru admitted that the current rapid growth of pure electric vehicles exceeded Toyota’s expectations. Toyota has to fully adjust its strategic plan for electric vehicles, advance the original plan for annual sales of 5.5 million electric vehicles by 2030 by five years, and set a target of 2025. Half of the global annual sales of new vehicles will come from electric vehicles.

Toyota’s plan looks crazy. In fact, Toyota’s so-called electric vehicles include pure electric, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Among them, the sales target of pure electric vehicles is 1 million.

I have seen the electrification schedule of the two largest auto giants in the world, and then look at the plans of the luxury car giants.

As early as 2017, Kang Songlin, a member of Daimler’s board of directors responsible for research and development, announced to the media: hope that by 2025, Mercedes-Benz will have 15% to 25% pure electric models. After two years, when other auto giants’ electrification strategies are speeding up, it is not known whether Mercedes-Benz will also follow the pace.

Look at BMW. On June 25th, the BMW Group announced plans to accelerate the expansion of electric products at the NEXTGen future summit: by 2023, 25 electric models will be provided to the market, two years earlier than originally planned, of which nearly half are pure electric models.

Where is the real baton?

Looking ahead, the goals set by global auto giants are still relatively similar. By 2025, the proportion of electric cars will be around 20%.

This is not entirely coincidental. On the one hand, this judgment comes from the analysis of automobile technology trends, electric vehicle R & D and production processes, and consumer demand by various auto companies; on the other hand, they are also looking at the eyes of governments of all countries. After all, the policy is Is the real trend.

The baton of industrial decision-makers in China and European countries waved at electric cars. Fuel consumption and emission regulations are constantly being upgraded and tightened, and are approaching the technical limits of gasoline and diesel vehicles. Fuel trucks will end up working hard again, not to mention the timetable for banning fuel trucks in various countries gradually surfaced.

Continental AG predicts a major trend in the automotive industry, namely that the internal combustion engine that will be developed in 2025 and produced in 2030 will be the last generation of internal combustion engines. Continental is the world’s second-largest auto parts giant and a supplier of internal combustion engine parts equal to Germany’s Bosch and Japan Denso. Continental Group believes that some technologies related to fuel engines and transmissions will no longer be useful, and the research and development focus of the company’s power transmission department is shifting to electric motors and inverters.

In China, the trend of the automotive industry is exactly as Volkswagen CEO Deis said: In the foreseeable future, electric vehicles are the only option. According to the “Medium and Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry” issued in 2017, by 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million units; by 2025, new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% of production and sales. The so-called new energy vehicles mainly refer to electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

China is already the world’s largest electric vehicle market. According to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, in 2018, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales completed 1.27 million and 1.256 million units, respectively, an increase of 59.9% and 61.7% over the same period last year. It seems that reaching 2 million by 2020 and 20% by 2025 are not empty talk.

Of course, planning will not be empty talk, but behind it is the strong promotion of policies. In the early stage, financial subsidies were provided for electric vehicles. After the subsidies gradually receded, the “double points” will relay, spurring the automotive industry to accelerate the electrification process.

On July 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an amendment to the “Measures for Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits for Passenger Car Enterprises” (draft for comment), which is expected to be officially implemented by the end of the year. The new method proposes new energy credit ratio requirements for 2021-2023: 14%, 16%, and 18%, respectively. The credit compliance ratios for 2024 and after will be issued separately by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. (The assessment of new energy points has started in 2019, and the percentage of points reaching standards in 2019 and 2020 is 10% and 12%, respectively.)

This “double credit”, to put it bluntly, requires that car companies continue to reduce the fuel consumption of fuel-fueled vehicles and also increase the proportion of new energy vehicles. Without joining the tide of electric cars, and not producing enough electric cars, car companies will not be able to “play” in China, as simple as that.

Electric vehicles are now being strongly promoted at the policy level. Finally, look further and look at the consensus issued by the World New Energy Vehicle Conference held in Boao, Hainan in July: strive to reach 50% of the global new energy vehicle market by 2035, and basically realize the electrification transformation of the global automotive industry.