In this British general election, the Scottish National Party has won 48 of the 59 total seats in the Scottish region. Although it is slightly inferior to the 56 seats in the 2015 general election, it has entered a critical period for the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union. With the party as the only party in the region that has a clear position in Europe, the message conveyed by this victory is quite complicated.
The author believes that, firstly, the result not only reflects the tangle of the Scottish people on the issue of Brexit, but also adds more uncertainty to the prospects of the United Kingdom of Great Britain; secondly, it should be noted that the Scottish National Party achieved a second independent referendum The probability of victory is not nailed down; the third is that the Scottish example took place under the special background of Brexit and the Scottish National Party seeking independence, and it is not widely referenced.
In the 2016 Brexit vote, most people in Scotland chose to stay in the EU. Since then, the Scottish National Party has used this as a reason to oppose the UK’s ruling party ’s Brexit bill and has called for another independent referendum. After the results of the election were announced, Scottish Nationalist Party leader Stirkin has officially stated that he wants to fight the British government for the right to hold Scotland’s second independent referendum.
The Scottish National Party held a clear position in Europe in this election, and its victory reflects the demands of some Scottish voters on Brexit. If, at this moment, the second Scottish independence referendum is launched under the slogan “Leave Scotland in the European Union”, even if there is a greater chance of success, it is also a huge risk. Among the people who voted for the Scottish National Party, there were voters who were both dissatisfied with Johnson and disappointed with Labour. This group of people gave their votes to the Scottish National Party without choice, so it is impossible to determine that most Scots advocate independence from Britain.
Why are the Scots tangled? As the Scottish National Party has always emphasized, staying in the EU will give Scotland economic, political and cultural advantages. The EU’s unified big market can provide more opportunities for economic development in Scotland; social democracy goals such as equality, welfare and market norms in the process of European integration are in line with the expectations of the Scottish people; the cultural ideas promoted by the EU are also similar to Scotland Minority groups seek fit. Many people in Scotland know this.
But at the same time, leaving the UK alone to join the EU also means huge risks and uncertainties.
First, it means that Scotland has left a small “quasi-federal” government like the United Kingdom and has joined the larger EU “quasi-federal”. People who are dissatisfied with the arbitrary and supportive British government’s support for the independence of Scotland are not yet able to confirm that the EU is a democratic “police” with a better system and better functioning. As we all know, the EU has been plagued by a “democratic deficit” and has been criticized on this issue in recent years.
Second, the security of the Scottish population is a major concern. The European Union has not yet established a complete common defense system, and breaking away from the British defense system is a huge challenge for Scotland.
Thirdly, “Brexit and accession to the EU” also requires a lengthy negotiation process, which is no less than the ongoing Brexit process and cannot guarantee that most Scottish people are psychologically prepared for this.
Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, British people have been plagued by uncertainty. The British election also highlighted the people’s mentality of seeking stability in a changing situation. Before the Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have ended, rashly pushing for the second referendum on Scotland will push Scotland to a more uncertain position. Therefore, it is clear that the Scottish people will not easily take risks.
Not only the United Kingdom and the European Union, the world today is undergoing rapid and tremendous changes, full of great variables. Judging from the entanglement between the British election and the above-mentioned Scottish people on the issue of Brexit, the people’s mentality of seeking stability has become even more urgent in the face of extreme uncertainty. In short, in an era of unprecedented changes in a century, stability is of paramount importance. Small subjects such as Scotland are bound to strive for more “stability” so that they will not be shaken by the storm.