“The global economy is experiencing the slowest growth since the crisis,” the Wall Street Journal reported on the 15th. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in the latest World Economic Outlook released on the same day that the global economic growth rate was 3.0 in 2019. %, lower than the previous forecast of 3.2%, the growth rate will rise to 3.4% in 2020.
Increased impact of trade friction
According to a Reuters report on the 15th, the IMF issued a warning that the trade war will cause the global economic growth rate to fall to the lowest level since the financial crisis, mainly because the impact of trade friction has intensified. The IMF said that by 2020, tariffs will reduce global economic output by 0.8%. In the previous speech, IMF’s new president, Kristalina Georgieva, said that the trade war would bring losses of 700 billion US dollars. And has hinted that the global economic growth forecast will be lowered. The report quoted IMF chief economist Gita Gopinat as saying, “The weak growth of the world economy is caused by the deterioration of manufacturing activities and global trade. The uncertainty of high tariffs and long-term trade policies will damage investment and capital. demand.”
According to the report, the global trade growth rate was only 1% in the first half of 2019, the lowest level since 2012. Although global trade volume increased by 3.6% in 2018, the IMF expects to grow only 1.1% for the full year of 2019, down 1.4% from its July forecast. The Brookings Institution of the United States released a report on the 13th that the world economic slowdown means that the world is in a state of simultaneous stagnation, the development of major economies is slowing down, other economies are basically not growing or even in a small recession, but the world is worried about a global recession. It is too early to arrive.
The business news website “Market Watch” reported that the IMF expects that the world’s major economies except Brazil will decline in economic growth in 2019. China’s GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.1% in 2019, and the US is down from 2.6%. To 2.4%, Germany’s economy grew by 0.5%, and Japan’s economy grew by 0.9%.
Weak growth in developed economies
Many of the world’s advanced economies are under pressure. The financial website “market insiders” reported that the possibility of Bloomberg’s economic recession shows that the probability of the US falling into recession next year is 25%. The US Treasury yield curve was upside down earlier this year, increasing fears of a recession, and manufacturing, wage growth and a slowdown in employment data exacerbated concerns about the downturn. The Brookings Institution report said that the trade frictions between the United States and major trading partners including China and the European Union and the uncertainty brought about by trade agreements with Canada and Mexico have hit US business confidence and hurt corporate profits. Lead to shrinking business investment.
Reuters reported that the German economy is currently in a weak growth cycle and is expected to experience a technical recession in the third quarter. The main economic institutions in Germany expect their economic growth rates to be only 0.5% and 1.1% in 2019 and 2020. Germany’s “Süddeutsche Zeitung” said on the 15th that the latest report of the IMF shows that, except for Italy, the economic growth of any industrialized country in 2019 will not be lower than that of Germany. As an export-oriented country, Germany relies on the needs of countries such as China, and Trump’s inciting international trade conflict has hit German exports. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also expressed pessimism on Tuesday, saying that “economic development is worrying.”
Analysts surveyed by Reuters also estimated that Australia’s economic growth rate in 2019 will be 1.9%, lower than the 2.1% estimate in the previous survey. Its high domestic debt and wage lag lead consumers to face difficulties, while global growth Slowly inhibit investment in the country’s enterprises. The Australian economy has performed poorly for several consecutive quarters, and the annual economic growth rate has slowed to 1.4%, a 10-year low.
“’Human factors have dragged down the world economy!’
“The world economy continues to issue warnings of deterioration.” South Korea’s “East Asia Daily” reported on the 15th that the current warning that the world economy has entered the downward trend has emerged one after another. The downturn in the euro zone from the manufacturing sector is spreading to the non-manufacturing sector. Sino-US trade The war broke the existing global economic supply chain, and the engine economy of the global economy is also deteriorating. The growth momentum of the US economy is rapidly disappearing due to various complicated factors such as tariffs and rising raw material prices. With the economic indicators of various countries showing a red light, the consumption, investment and foreign trade volume of major economies have all declined. The OECD’s forecast of world economic growth in 2019 last month was only 2.9%, and the global trade volume even turned into Negative growth, especially in countries with high foreign economic dependence such as the EU and South Korea, is experiencing a significant decline in foreign trade.
“The human factors dragged down the world economy!” German news TV said on the 15th that the main drag on the world economy is “human factors”, such as the US-sponsored trade war, geopolitical risks, Brexit, and global manufacturing activity slowed down. Wait. German news TV station believes that the world economy must go out of the shadows, “the bell must be tied to the bell”, and the obstacles of “human factors” must be removed, including the agreement between countries and the United States to enhance the optimism of the global economy.
Germany’s “Focus” magazine said on the 15th that the “World Economic Outlook” report shows that the global economy is at a turning point, and the importance of emerging market countries such as China in the global economy is even more prominent. Countries around the world need more cooperation and take the road of global free trade.