“Wire Dance” of two nuclear power states

When there is no peace in this world, when the DPRK nuclear issue and the Iranian issue are still not clear, the conflict between India and Pakistan will start again. The two “nuclear states” were arrogant in Kashmir, and they focused on the eyes of the international community.

India and Pakistan have been independent for more than 70 years, and the conflict around Kashmir has not stopped, and no solution has been found. In this 190,000 square kilometers of land, the Indian and Pakistani families do not have an internationally recognized border, but a “control line.” It has become a “normal state” to shoot at the opponent near the control line.

This time the exchange of fire was unusual because India engaged in “big things” and directly abolished the privilege of the high degree of autonomy of Jammu-Kashmir State in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This practice directly ruined Pakistan’s hopes of resolving Kashmir’s affiliation through people’s self-determination over the years. Along with the increase in the number of troops in the border areas, India and Pakistan are separated from the large-scale war by a layer of window paper. Will the two nuclear-armed countries bring the South Asian subcontinent into the abyss?

India and Pakistan divide the British “buried mine”
The Kashmir dispute is a constant source of conflict since the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947. For more than 70 years, this problem has become a deeply torn wound between the two countries and has never been able to heal. This historical hatred comes from a mine that was buried when the British colonists withdrew from India in 1947 and formulated the India-Pakistan division.

The Indian poet Tagore once said that his motherland “is too wide and the race is too complicated.” Historical changes over the centuries have allowed India to form a complex race, diverse cultures and languages, and the coexistence of multiple religious beliefs. The hostility between Hindus and Islam is the protagonist on the stage of religious conflict.

Before 1947, British India ruled all the land of South Asia, including most of Myanmar, and was one of the largest empire in the world. Under the British colonial rule of “divide and rule”, British India has formed a harmonious and balanced sectarian contradiction on the surface, but the problem has not been solved, and a huge crisis is hidden.

In the Indian independence movement of the early 20th century, the two major organizations, the Hindu Party and the All India Muslim League, which were dominated by Hindus, were formed. The Congress Party called for the establishment of a unified country headed by Hinduism; the Muslim League, under the leadership of Muslim leader Jinnah (later known as the “Father of the Father”), advocated the independence of Hindus and Islamists and was adopted in March 1940. The historic “Pakistan Resolution” requires independent establishment of the two regions of East Asia.

The leader of the Indian independence movement, “The Mahatma” Gandhi, once shared the support of Hindus and Muslims because he advocated that Hindus and Muslims cooperate to build a complete country after independence. The separation tendency of the Islamic leader made Mahatma Gandhi very uneasy. He often used his supreme authority to stop the opposition between the two sects. Although it can ease the situation, it does not help to separate the situation. He himself tries to bridge the sect. The conflict was assassinated by Hindu extremists in 1948.

After the end of World War II, the British Empire, which knew that India’s independence had become unstoppable, was determined to withdraw. In March 1947, the last Indian Governor, Queen Victoria’s grandson, Lord Mountbatten, arrived in India. In the face of serious violent clashes between local sects, he described himself as “like sitting in a ship with a fire and filled with gunpowder.” “. After asking the British government, he decided to implement a plan to divide India and Pakistan by ethnicity and religion. The history is called the “Montbarton Plan.” However, the British were not willing to fail, so deliberately buried a time bomb, which is to let Kashmir decide to belong.

British India consists of 11 provinces, and among these provinces there are about 550 land states. Kashmir is one of the largest land states. According to the “Mount Barton Plan” promulgated in June 1947, the ruling of the Tuban region was decided by the local prince, but the tyrant must consider the geographical factors of the region. The situation in Kashmir is very special. It is between India and Pakistan. The consideration of “geographical factors” does not work here. The princes of Kashmir are Hindus, but nearly 80% of the residents are Muslims. According to the principle of majority decision in the partition plan, it should be included in Pakistan; but according to the principle of the king’s decision of the state, it is clear that India will be given priority. Therefore, when India and Pakistan were divided, the issue of Kashmir’s affiliation was unresolved and became the trigger for the conflict between the two countries in the future.

As soon as the “Mount Barton Plan” was announced, Hindus and Muslims cleaned the infidels in areas where their powers prevailed. There were massacres, burning houses and rape everywhere. There was a terrible ethnic vendetta. The South Asian subcontinent fell into a blood and fire disaster. Become a dark page in human history. According to Western statistics, 600,000 people were slaughtered in the months of India and Pakistan, 8 million Muslims fled from India to Pakistan, and 4 million Hindus fled to India. On the way to escape, there are millions. A person is sick, starved or killed. For decades, many Pakistanis have been deeply hated by Hindus. Many Indian government officials have also regarded Pakistan and even Muslims as enemies. This is precisely the historical grievances.

Three wars did not solve the problem
Kashmir’s affiliation is unresolved, and both Pakistan and India want this strategic location. The two countries do not give each other and eventually lead to a big fight. The three India-Pakistan wars so far have started twice because of Kashmir.

In August 1947, a Muslim uprising in Kashmir announced the establishment of “Free Kashmir” and joined Pakistan. Inspecting the prince to seek assistance from the Indian government, the Indian army immediately entered Kashmir, and the Pakistani army also entered Kashmir to assist Muslims. The first India-Pakistan war broke out. The Indian and Indian troops who fought in the war were all the British and Indian troops. The Muslim troops, which accounted for one-third of the total strength of the India-Pakistan division, were returned to Pakistan, accounting for two-thirds of the total strength of the Hindu and Sikh troops. The wing of a different religious sect of an army immediately became an opponent on the battlefield.

Because the financial and military power is stronger than Pakistan, India has an advantage in the battle for Kashmir. After 15 months of war, in January 1949, under the mediation of the United Nations, both India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire and delineated the ceasefire line in July of the same year. At the time of the ceasefire, India controlled about two-thirds of the land and three-quarters of the Kashmiri population. In 1956, the area became India’s Jammu-Kashmir State, and the more desolate one-third of the northern part was controlled by Pakistan. The ceasefire laid the scope for the subsequent control of Kashmir between the two sides, and the ceasefire line actually became the split line of Kashmir.

Due to the major differences between India and Pakistan on the definition of terrorism, the historical grievances of the two countries are very deep, and they are also intertwined with the contradictions between Hindus and Muslims, thus forming the largest source of unrest in the South Asian subcontinent.

At that time, according to the UN resolution, the issue of Kashmir’s ownership must ultimately be decided by a referendum. However, the two sides have not been able to obtain a unified opinion on whether or not to hold a referendum.

The second India-Pakistan war took place in April 1965, when small arms collided in Kuchingan, a salt-alkali marsh near the Indus estuary, and then evolved into a full-scale war. Most of the fighting was caused by two The national army began in Kashmir along the border between the two countries. This battle not only broke out the largest tank battle since the India-Pakistan war, but also the air battle is quite fierce. India has suffered a big loss this time, and it has been defeated by the Pakistan Air Force, which is far less than its own but has a quality advantage. On September 20 of that year, under the re-adjustment of the United Nations, India and Pakistan ceased fire across the board. In January 1966, under the mediation of the Soviet government, India and Pakistan agreed to retreat to the area before August 5, 1965. The second India-Pakistan war ended here. The two sides signed the Tashkent Declaration, unanimously agreed to a ceasefire and withdraw their troops, and announced that they would use force instead to resolve disputes through peaceful means. But on the key Kashmir issue, the Declaration only shows that both sides have stated their respective positions. Key issues such as referendums and the scope of activities of military personnel are not mentioned.

Indian officers and soldiers of the first India-Pakistan war.

The second India-Pakistan war, the Pakistani Air Force main fighter F-86.

In 1971, General Bafang Niagaki surrendered to the Indian General Aurora.

On February 27, 2019, near the Bad Gamm County in central Kashmir, a military aircraft of the Indian Air Force crashed in India-controlled Kashmir, killing two pilots and a civilian.

When India and Pakistan were divided in 1947, Pakistani territory included today’s West Pakistan and Bangladesh (Dongba). In 1970, the East Pakistani Muslims, mainly Bengali, showed a tendency to break away from Western Pakistan, which is dominated by Urdu. In March 1971, the East Pakistani military rebelled and declared Bangladesh independence. At the time of the civil strife in East Pakistan, India decided to send troops to support East Pakistan independence. On December 3, 1971, the third large-scale Indo-Pakistani war broke out.

After the outbreak of the war, India attacked Pakistan on both sides. Since Seba is thousands of kilometers apart from India by East Pakistan, the connection between Dongba and Sabah was interrupted after India blocked the sea and air. The Pakistani army lost to the strong attack of the Indian army and the “Free Army.” A large number of troops were captured and eventually forced to surrender to the Indian army. In January 1972, Dongba independently established Bangladesh, and India successfully dismembered Pakistan, thus laying the current political structure in South Asia. The independence of Dongba has left Pakistan with nearly 55% of its population and about 16% of its territory. The hatred of the country being dismembered by India is deeply remembered in the hearts of Pakistanis.

After the third India-Pakistan War in 1972, the Simla Agreement was signed, requiring both sides to hold bilateral meetings to finally resolve the Kashmir issue. Since then, Pakistan still demanded Kashmiri residents to self-determination, while India has never refused to allow Kashmir to choose to belong according to public opinion, because the result of voting is self-evident. For decades, Muslims in the Indian-controlled area have been violently protesting and organized guerrillas known as the “Kashmiri Freedom Fighters”, which are also located in the northern Pakistani control zone.

The Pakistani side believes that before the Kashmir issue is resolved, Pakistan is obliged to support the Muslim people in the region in their struggle for freedom. The Indian Special People’s Party Government regards it as a terrorism that splits the country and takes high-pressure measures such as military strikes to trigger tension in the region. . Due to the major differences between India and Pakistan on the definition of terrorism, the historical grievances of the two countries are very deep, and they are also intertwined with the contradictions between Hindus and Muslims, thus forming the largest source of unrest in the South Asian subcontinent.

Worried about “big shots” again
For many years, small armed conflicts between India and Pakistan in Kashmir have almost never been interrupted. In 1999, the two sides broke out a border conflict in the Kargil region of India-controlled Kashmir. The conflict lasted for 74 days, with more than 1,000 casualties on both sides. The Indian Army artillery fired an average of 6,000 rounds of artillery per day and fired more than 250,000 artillery shells. The Indian Air Force has dispatched more than 500 sorties and threw about 500 bombs. It is estimated that this figure is the highest density of fire after the Second World War.

In 2003, India and Pakistan signed a ceasefire agreement and decided to end the years of bloody disputes near the Kashmir control line, but the time for this agreement has been extremely limited. In 2014, the Modi government of India took office and became tough on Pakistan. By September 2016, India had carried out a “surgical strike” against Pakistan across borders, resulting in an escalation of military confrontation between the two sides. Since then, India-Pakistan relations have reached a stalemate, peace talks have almost stagnated, and the number of conflicts has continuously increased. It is reported that in the year of 2016 alone, there were as many as 228 crossfire incidents, and by 2018 there were as many as 1,629 incidents. This frequency has been increasing, and the wars over the two countries have always shrouded the war.

Just in February of this year, the two countries in the air again “big shots”, it is rare in recent years. The Indian Air Force dispatched a number of fighter planes, crossed the control lines of India and Pakistan in Kashmir, and carried out air strikes against the “terrorist” camps in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. In the subsequent air battles, the Pakistani Air Force fighters shot down the Indian MiG- 21 fighters.

Shortly after the “air war” caused the fading, Indian Prime Minister Modi announced on August 5 that he would cancel the 370 clause of the Constitution, abolish the “special status” of the Indian-controlled Kashmir region and redefine the region. This change means that India no longer acquiesced in the disputed region of Kashmir, but forced it into India and became its sovereign territory. This unilateral change in the status quo has caused strong protests from the Palestinian side and once again triggered a fierce armed confrontation between the two countries.

Because the background of this conflict is different, the international community is worried that this round of armed conflict will evolve into a second Kargil conflict and even another large-scale war between India and Pakistan. Once in the war, who will take the initiative? Many media have conducted a comparative analysis of the military strength of the two countries.

The “Russia Today” TV station website published a report in the India-Pakistan air conflict in February this year, saying that the Indian economy is 2.689 trillion US dollars, far exceeding Pakistan’s 307 billion US dollars. The UK-based International Strategy Institute said that India’s military budget for 2018 is $58 billion, almost the same as Russia, enough to rank fifth in the world. In contrast, Pakistan’s military spending is only $11 billion.

In the Army, Pakistan has 560,000 troops, but India has 1.2 million active troops. India has about 3,500 tanks, 1,000 more than Pakistan. The most advanced Indian counter is the Russian-made T-90 tank, while Pakistan has the Chinese-made Khalid tank. India has nearly 10,000 artillery pieces, and the number of Pakistani artillery pieces is less than 5,000. India has 3,100 infantry transport vehicles, twice as many as its rivals.

According to an earlier report in the news, the Indian Air Force currently has nearly 140,000 personnel, and there are about 1,700 combat aircraft in active service. The main fighters are Su-30MKI, MiG-29, Mirage-2000, MiG-21, Jaguar and The French “Gust” fighter that will be in service. The Pakistan Air Force now has about 45,000 people and 883 aircraft. The main fighters in active service are JF-17, F-16 and Mirage-3/5.

Similarly, India has a more powerful, larger and more advanced navy. For a country with 10 times the coastline, it is completely unexpected.

It is not difficult to find that the Indian army is dominant in scale. But the progress and results of the war are not simply calculated by scale. Many reports believe that the Pakistan Air Force’s combat power should not be underestimated, and there is a very good set in training and tactics. After 1954, with the signing of the Treaty of Defense and Mutual Assistance between Pakistan and the United States, the Pakistan Air Force began a comprehensive strategic transformation, including a large number of pilots, and the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force went to the United States for high-intensity training. The Pakistan Air Force not only accepts a large amount of American equipment, but its military organization structure, training system, operational thinking and tactical characteristics fully inherit the characteristics of the US Air Force. Since the second India-Pakistan war, the Pakistani Air Force has been known for its bravery and good warfare in the face of India. In the second India-Pakistan war, although the Indian Air Force had a 5-1 advantage, the Pakistan Air Force still achieved a big victory. In the attack on the Indian Air Force airport, 35 printers were destroyed and 19 aircraft were destroyed by air combat. The Pakistan Air Force lost only eight military aircraft.

On the occasion of tensions between India and Pakistan, the Pakistani Prime Minister’s Office issued a brief announcement on August 19, stating that Prime Minister Imran Khan has approved the extension of the current term of Chief of Staff of the Army, Kamal Javed Bajwa, for three years. Wa was originally scheduled to retire in November this year. The announcement stated that the decision was based on regional security considerations.

On the day of India’s Independence Day, Modi announced that he would add a new position to the Indian Ministry of Defence, which is the Chief of Defense. And he said that this will also be the first step in the Indian military reform. According to expert analysis, India has never had a statement about the position of defense staff, and this new position will replace the former UN Defence Staff to strengthen coordination and communication between the military and make important for the next conflict. Preparation for the work.

For India, the Kashmir issue must be resolved, and there is no turning back in the opening of the bow. In the following days, the two sides will continue to fight in Kashmir, and greater fighting may start at any time. Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, pointed out that India’s attitude toward Pakistan will become stronger and stronger. Such an approach will indeed make Pakistan adopt a more confrontational attitude. However, the parties will adopt a confrontational political and economic means in a state of temperance, and they will not necessarily upgrade to military means to solve the problem. The possibility of military confrontation between India and Pakistan will be great, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is relatively small.

Experts believe that the nuclear weapons possessed by India and Pakistan are enough to create an unprecedented nuclear disaster for each other. At present, armed conflicts between the two countries continue, and it is necessary to guard against the accumulation of risk factors for nuclear warfare.

India tested the latest Fire 5 strategic missile, the best strategic missile weapon in India, capable of carrying a 1000 kg nuclear warhead and hitting targets 5,000 km away.

Nuclear war risk needs to be guarded
India and Pakistan have asymmetrical military forces. In India, India is far stronger than Pakistan. The international community is most worried about India and Pakistan as two de facto nuclear powers. As the conflict escalates, the asymmetry of conventional military power The risk of a nuclear war broke out in both countries to a great extent. The two nuclear states are like a dangerous “straight-wire”. The air conflict between the two countries in February this year is the first time that the two countries have used air power to confront each other since the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. This also marks the first time that the nuclear-weapon state has conducted an air strike against another nuclear-weapon state. This concern is not a worry, Pakistani authorities have revealed that during the Kargil conflict, Pakistani nuclear forces have increased their alert status in case of emergency.

Recognizing the disadvantages of its conventional military strength, Pakistan has invested heavily in building nuclear deterrence. In May 1998, after a series of underground explosion tests in India, Pakistan also conducted underground tests of nuclear weapons. Since then, the confrontation between India and Pakistan in South Asia has become a confrontation between two nuclear countries.

How many nuclear weapons are currently in Pakistan and India has been a hot topic of discussion. Earlier this year, the Times of India quoted the US Atomic Scientists Bulletin as saying that the number of nuclear weapons in Pakistan is increasing. In 1999, the US Defense Intelligence Agency made a prediction that in 2020 Pakistan will have 60-80 nuclear warheads. However, the Atomic Scientists Gazette believes that Pakistan has successfully increased the number of nuclear warheads to 130-140.

In November 2015, the US Nuclear Surveillance Organization’s Institute of Science and International Security published a report showing that India is the country with the largest nuclear weapons development plan in developing countries and has a large number of weapons-grade plutonium materials. It can produce up to 100 nuclear bombs. The report pointed out that although there is no information, the evidence proves that India has refined enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. It is estimated that there are 100-200 kilograms of weapon-grade uranium, which can produce dozens of nuclear bombs.

According to data from the Center for International Strategic Studies (CSIS), India has nine missile systems that can be put into use at any time, including the Fire III missile with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers. Pakistan’s missile range can also cover the entire territory of India. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) believes that both India and Pakistan have short-range missiles that can carry small nuclear warheads with a range of 50 to 100 kilometers. In addition, the nuclear arsenals of both sides have nuclear bombs that can be thrown by bombers.

Experts believe that the nuclear weapons possessed by India and Pakistan are enough to create an unprecedented nuclear disaster for each other. At present, armed conflicts between the two countries continue, and it is necessary to guard against the accumulation of risk factors for nuclear warfare. The factors that reduce the risk of inducing nuclear conflict are mainly to control armed conflicts, to avoid escalating conflicts and to evolve into large-scale military conflicts or wars.

In fact, nuclear weapons also play an important role in the control of armed conflicts. It is the amazing lethality of nuclear weapons and the long-lasting destructive effects on society, psychology and the environment that make it a strategic deterrent. Masood, the leader of Pakistan’s “free Kashmir”, said that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, which makes India afraid to take risks against Pakistani military.

The think tank of the University of Colorado has said that if India and Pakistan go to a nuclear war, then even a “limited nuclear conflict” may cause a global “nuclear winter”, plus the inevitable chain wars and pollution diseases. This will result in the death of at least 2 billion people.

When the stalemate between India and Pakistan was serious in February this year, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan asked Indian Prime Minister Modi: “Can we bear the wrong judgment given the weapons capabilities of both sides?” When the nuclear-weapon states make the decision to develop nuclear weapons They are also responsible for taking all precautions to ensure that nuclear weapons are never used. Because this is a gamble that can’t be played.