Why did Modi take the world?

On August 15, 2019, Indian Prime Minister Modi attended the 73rd Independence Day celebrations in India and delivered a speech. Modi highlighted the recent high-profile dispute in the Kashmir region.

On August 14, Pakistan’s Independence Day, Karachi held a grand celebration.

On August 15th, India celebrated Independence Day and the Red Fort in Delhi held a grand celebration. Prime Minister Modi, who is accustomed to using nationalism and sensation, once again expressed his passionate speech with his “Indian Dream” as his focus, and portrayed India’s dream of achieving a $5 trillion economy in 2024.

Behind the faction, there was a burst of gunfire – on August 15, India and Pakistan again exchanged fire in the Kashmir region.

In order to cool down the India-Pakistan conflict that has already entered the heat, on August 16, the UN Security Council closed the door for the first time in 50 years to discuss the situation in Kashmir. The representatives of India and Pakistan expressed support for the peaceful settlement of the dispute.

What people didn’t expect was that India had a set of behind-the-scenes, and it was said that it was necessary to solve the problem peacefully. In fact, turning his face was faster than flipping the book. Soon, the gunfire of Kashmir sounded again, and India lost several times. Even threatened to make nuclear weapons. As the tension in Kashmir further escalated, people were saddened to discover that Kashmir’s long-standing “powder barrel” was sizzling, and the factions of various factions seemed to be making Kashmir another Gaza – a constant source of violence and a peaceful future. .

Political adventure
On May 30th, Indian Prime Minister Modi, who won the Indian election, was sworn in and opened his second term. In early August, the Modi government of India suddenly increased its troops to India-controlled Kashmir and asked tourists and pilgrims to withdraw from the area. On August 5th, Modi’s Indo-Chinese party relied on a majority of seats to take action in parliament, abolishing the constitutional provisions of 370 and 35A granting the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, and dividing the Indian-controlled Kashmiri into The two centrally-administered districts of Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh have forcibly transformed the internationally disputed territory of Kashmir into “Indian territory”, which is an unacceptable reality for Pakistan, which insists on “Kashmir’s undetermined status”. This has caused a serious confrontation between India and Pakistan.

The Kashmir region is located between the four countries of China, India and Pakistan. It has extremely important military and political values ​​and is known as the “heart of Asia” region. India and Pakistan have met for a long time, and the complex ethnic and religious relations in the region have caused the terrorist forces to cross the game with the great powers, which has brought negative impacts on the development of fragile society.

Since 2019, this region has become increasingly anxious with the “upgrade” of terrorist activities and the strong “response” of the Indian side. In early August, India’s announcement of the abolition of Kashmir’s “special status” suddenly brought new uncertainties to the future direction of the region. The pessimistic view even suggested that Kashmir had the possibility of Palestinianization.

It is undeniable that Modi started to attack the Kashmir region at this time, and the timing was very clever. Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the China-South Asia Cooperation Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with Xinmin Weekly: “From the perspective of the international environment, the Chinese government has been involved in a lot of energy because of Sino-US trade wars and Hong Kong issues; Europe is now It also faces a host of thorny issues, such as economic development issues, security issues, the Brexit issue, etc., and has no regard for the Kashmir issue. The United States regards China and Russia as strategic competitors, strengthens strategic containment, and picks globally. Since the beginning of the trade war, in addition, the US-Iranian relationship has been arrogant, and the US-Indian strategy has to rely on India. Therefore, the United States has not paid much attention to the Kashmir issue.”

Liu Zongyi said that Pakistan played an important role in the peace talks between the Trump administration and the Taliban in Afghanistan. The United States and the Taliban have made rapid progress in negotiations, and the US-Pakistan relationship has recovered. India is worried that the United States will change its “Indica-Pakistan decoupling” policy pursued for many years.

India has always opposed the Taliban, and now India has been marginalized in the peace process in Afghanistan. If the Palestinians help the United States solve the Afghan problem and the Taliban gains an important position in the Afghan government, then India’s interests in Afghanistan will be seriously damaged. India’s investment in Afghanistan is more than 2 billion U.S. dollars. It is a strategic partnership with the current Afghan government. .

At the same time, Pakistan will gain a comparative advantage because of the rising status of the Taliban in Afghanistan, get rid of the dilemma of both sides and concentrate on India in Kashmir. The victory of the Taliban will also greatly inspire the anti-Indian armed forces in Kashmir.

“India at this time forcibly changed the status of India-controlled Kashmir, prepared for a large-scale armed riot in Kashmir, and reminded the United States to respect India’s position on the Kashmir issue, not to link the Afghan issue with the Kashmir issue; nor to exclude India. Inducing Pakistan to use the Taliban and other armed forces to launch attacks on India, to interfere with the peace process in Afghanistan, to discredit the Palestinian side in support of terrorism before the United States and the international community, thereby enhancing India’s position in the peace process in Afghanistan, forcing the Taliban to negotiate with them and respecting them. In the interests of A, etc., Liu Zongyi said.

In an interview with Xinmin Weekly, Liu Jinqian, assistant researcher of the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, the two countries have repeatedly fought around the issue of the ownership of the Kashmir region. The upper hand, but led to the long-term confrontation between India and Pakistan in the Kyrgyz region, not only involved a large number of military, economic and diplomatic resources, but also because of the long-term hostility of the two countries, unable to integrate South Asia, but also provided a grasp for the involvement of terrorist forces. In short, the Kashmir issue has become a big worry for India’s “dream of a big country.”

“The Modi government wants to solve the Kashmir issue once and establish a single, united ‘unified country, which in turn reverses the country’s weak state of affairs, concentrates on internal and external rivals, and ultimately achieves the dream of a strong Indian country.”

In short, Modi believes that now is the best time to decide to cancel the “special status” of India-controlled Kashmir, to minimize the negative effects and possible chain reactions. If you drag it backwards, the variables are enormous.

From the perspective of Indian domestic politics, after Modi’s re-election, one of his main tasks is to promote the integration of the Hindu nation-state. The Indian People’s Party and its mother, the Indian National Volunteer Group, have always believed that India has been at the forefront of resisting Muslim invasion for more than 1300 years. “The abolition of the special status of India-controlled Kashmir is the result of the long-term premeditated by the Indian people. Its fundamental purpose is to strengthen the control over Indian-controlled Kashmir, change its demographic structure, and thoroughly digest it.” Liu Zongyi said.

In 2014, Modi was able to come to power not only because of his economic and public security achievements in Gujarat, but more importantly, he encouraged Hindu nationalism. Modi was born in the lower caste class, and he is a devout Hindu. In India, Hindus account for more than 80% of the total population. Moody’s has been supported by most Hindu voters by encouraging Hindu nationalism and succeeding in the upper ranks.

India-controlled Kashmir is the only Muslim-majority region in India. Its constitutional special status prohibits Indian citizens of India from permanently staying in Kashmir, buying homes, obtaining scholarships and working in the government of Kebon. There are a large number of anti-Indian forces in Kashmir, and long-term turmoil has provided a hotbed for international terrorist forces. The residents differ greatly from the citizens of other states in terms of national and ethnic identity.

The Indian Party is dissatisfied with the dominant position of Muslims in the state and believes that the Constitution has hindered the integration of the state with other parts of India. The Modi government wanted to change the special status of Indian-controlled Kashmir after taking office in 2014. However, due to its lack of advantages in parliament, it could not be implemented. This made the Indian National Volunteers very dissatisfied. In 2019, the Indian People’s Party promised to abolish the special status of Kashmir after being elected in the campaign platform. In the 2019 election, the Indian Party gained an overwhelming advantage, and other parties in the parliament were unable to prevent its policy implementation.

Liu Jinqian said that the resolutions of the two houses of the Indian parliament have adopted the majority of the issue, which means that the Indian people have long wanted to seek change. “Modi said that Kashmir is a stubborn problem that India has not resolved in its 73 years of independence. The Indian government has launched a fundamental reform plan for this issue within 10 weeks of its election. This is the realization of Sardar Patel. The groundbreaking initiative of the Indian dream.”

Modi believes that now is the best time to decide to cancel the “special status” of India-controlled Kashmir, to minimize the negative effects and possible chain reactions. If you drag it backwards, the variables are enormous.

The highly self-governing status of Indian-controlled Kashmir was the expediency of the Indian government in order to win the support of Kashmir, to reduce the Muslims’ resentment and the Kashmiri government. In recent years, Hindus, especially Hindu right-wing groups, have long been dissatisfied with this policy, and feel that this historical legacy has deeply hurt the feelings of Hindus. “Therefore, the implementation of the New Deal under the Indian Constitution in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region is not only related to India’s sovereignty, but also to the religious feelings of the current Hindus. After the announcement, New Delhi, Mumbai, Gujarat and many other places have celebrated. Activities show that this move has won the hearts of Hindus.”

Liu Jinqian said that due to the influence of the international Islamic fundamentalism and the jihad thought brought about by the return of the jihadists after the annihilation of the “Islamic State”, Islamic fundamentalist groups and religious organizations in India-controlled Kashmir quickly “grow”. India is now deeply affected by terrorism. harm. These religious organizations continue to carry out Islamic fundamentalist propaganda on Muslims in Kashmir and encourage Muslims in Kashmir to engage in jihad. The spread of jihad thoughts has contributed to the development of Kashmir’s terrorist forces, which has led to the sectarianism in this area, with numerous armed forces and chaos.

In July 2016, Indian security forces killed the “Jihadist party” leader Burhan Vanni, resulting in a continuous low-intensity conflict and mass protests in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. To this day, Jammu has appeared on demonstrations that depart from India every Friday.

Along with a large number of violent incidents, the Central Government of India announced in July 2018 that it would once again disband the Kashmiri local council and implement the governing of the governor. In December of the same year, it was changed to the “presidential control” directly under the central government. During this period, the central government circumvented local political parties to introduce a number of policy reforms to strengthen direct control. “It can be said that the Indian government has been constantly moving towards the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. This sudden action is to use the favorable situation at home and abroad to solve the Kashmir issue as soon as possible and realize ‘a country, a constitution.'”

On August 15, 2019, in Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan, local demonstrators held a large-scale rally to protest against the Indian government.

On August 15th, India’s Independence Day speech, Modi once again sought a so-called reasonable explanation for his “Kashmiri action”. He said that the “Article 370 of the Constitution” given to the “special status” of the Indian-controlled Kashmir region led to “separatism, terrorism, dynasty politics and corruption”, so “our country made a historic decision (cancel the Indian-controlled Kashmir) ‘Special status'”. Modi also said that the special status of Jammu and Kashmir has restricted investment and economic growth, and the elimination of the “special status” of India-controlled Kashmir will bring prosperity to the region and will effectively prevent terrorism.

It is widely believed that this is entirely the expression of Modi’s personal will and Indian extreme nationalism. Liu Zongyi said that the Modi government’s unilateral change of the special status of India-controlled Kashmir reflects its consistent speculative and adventurous nature and will have a greater impact on India’s domestic politics, international politics and regional situation.

Economic worries
The experts interviewed pointed out that the poor economic situation in India is also one of the reasons why the Indian government chose to start doing this in the Kashmir region. This will enable Modi to temporarily get rid of domestic criticism of the negative economic situation.

At the beginning of his first term, Modi carried out a series of reforms in India, which greatly promoted economic development. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014-2018 remained at around 7.3% on average, becoming the world’s major The fastest-growing country in the economy has also risen from the 9th to the 6th in global economic status.

However, behind the glamorous economic data, the hidden worry is great. Liu Zongyi pointed out that in order to maintain a good economic growth rate, India has revised the calculation method of gross domestic product, and the water injection is serious. The Modi government has declared that the economic growth rate exceeds 7%, and may actually be only about 5%.

In the past five years, the Indian economy has been mainly driven by private investment and personal consumption. The government is unable to make large-scale investments due to high fiscal deficits, but private investment is concentrated in the fast-moving service industries, while agriculture, industry, infrastructure, etc. Investment in the field is seriously inadequate.

Until now, India’s combined agricultural and industrial output value has fallen to less than 40% of GDP. The modernization of a big country is difficult to sustain without industrial support. When Modi came to power in 2014, he claimed to provide 10 million jobs every year, but in fact only 120,000 jobs were added each year.

Due to the lack of industry to absorb a large amount of labor, as the economy grows, the unemployment rate in India has not only declined, but has been increasing. According to Indian government survey data, from July 2017 to June 2018, India’s unemployment rate reached 6.1%, the highest level in 45 years. The Indian Economic Testing Center estimates that the unemployment rate exceeded 7% in April this year.

Worse data is that according to statistics released by the Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association, Indian car sales plummeted 31% in July, the biggest drop in nearly 20 years. At the same time, this is also the 9-month decline in Indian car sales. More importantly, since April this year, many automakers, including Tata and Honda, have temporarily shut down their factories, which has caused the Indian auto industry to face tremendous pressure from unemployment. The Indian Association of Auto Parts Manufacturing recently warned that this result could cause 1 million people to lose their jobs.