The United States does not care if Japan prosperes

Recently, the Japanese media once again exposed the news that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to expand the purchase of American agricultural products. In fact, as early as May 26 this year, US President Trump has already revealed his agreement with Abe on Twitter. He said: Japan-US trade negotiations have made great progress in the agricultural sector. After the election of the Japanese Senate There will be huge purchases. Now that the Senate election is over, can Japan fulfill its promise? Things are not that simple. In the process of Japan-US trade friction for many years, every time Japan says “yes”, the inner lines are often “no”, while Trump wants to open the door to the Japanese agricultural products market. The Japanese-American trade game is about to open. Pull open.

Originally, the Abe government overcame domestic opposition and agreed to participate in the TPP, but since Trump did not like the TPP, the international agreement was overthrown and the United States retired, causing the Abe government to face the dilemma of bilateral trade negotiations with the United States. The US agricultural community asked the Trump administration to exert pressure on Japan, demanding that it exceed the TPP level, signing a bilateral free trade agreement, and expanding exports to Japan. Trump had to meet the requirements of American farmers and exert pressure on Japan.

In April this year, Abe promised Japanese companies to invest 40 billion US dollars to build a car production line in the United States, and also intends to purchase US defense equipment, in exchange for the United States agree to postpone the opening of agricultural products to the United States. Because the Japanese countryside is an important “ticket field” of the Liberal Democratic Party, if it agrees to open the agricultural product market, Abe will lose the support of farmers. If the LDP is likely to step down before the Senate election, Abe promises to consider lowering tariffs on agricultural products after the election.

In order to delay the bilateral trade negotiations between Japan and the United States as much as possible, especially the time to open the agricultural products market, Abe also enthusiastically received Trump. In May of this year, during Trump’s visit to Japan, the Abe government gave the highest courtesy. It was to let Trump meet with the Emperor, and to accompany him to play golf, and invited Trump to watch the big sumo game at the National Technology Museum. . In addition, on May 28, Abe accompanied Trump to the Maritime Self-Defense Forces Yokosuka Base, boarded the “Izumo-type” aircraft carrier plus the Hega, and told Trump Japan to purchase the F-35B for vertical take-off and landing. The fighter plane is modifying the Kaga for this purpose.

However, this practice may not work for Trump. He also proposed the purchase of agricultural products and disclosed Abe’s promise to purchase large quantities of US agricultural products after the election. Trump may want to report his visit to the United States through Twitter, but he exposed Abe to the Japanese voters. The voters think that the Abe cabinet will use the national tax to buy weapons, which is the “private interest” of the election. Actually, he also made a promise to Trump to cause a serious blow to Japanese agriculture, which is really disappointing.

The self-sufficiency of food is a matter of national security. Once the influx of American agricultural products into Japan will undoubtedly cause a fatal blow to high-cost Japanese agriculture, thereby reducing Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate. Diplomacy’s subordination to the United States has made it difficult for Abe to fully maintain its food security, and Abe, which has lost food self-sufficiency, and Japanese voters continue to support him. The reason for this is that in addition to the current Japanese political ecology, Abe does not. Beyond the opponents, the fictitious name of the Japan-US alliance is also an important reason.

Trump used the alliance as an excuse to tie Japan to the chariot of the United States, and economically killed Japan because the United States did not care whether Japan prospered or not, but only Japan needed to be its strategic fulcrum. The United States does not need Japan to become a chess player on its strategic board, only Japan needs to be a chess piece. This is the paradox of the Japan-US alliance. Japan and neighboring countries are in a security predicament. Therefore, this alliance needs to be used as a tiger skin. The United States needs this alliance to establish a bridgehead to control Eurasia.

Over the years, the basic model of Japan-US economic friction has been pressure from the United States, Japan to give in, then pressure, and then concessions. However, the United States nowadays is like a giant who is hard to fill. The demand for Japan will continue to escalate, such as expanding to agricultural products, beef, and automobiles. Former Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara wrote in the 1990s that Japan can say to the United States. Do not”. However, if Japan can’t change its tension with neighboring countries, it can’t get rid of its subordinate status with the United States. It can only be a pawn that is arbitrary, and it can’t say “no” to the US political and economic bullying. Japan’s agricultural “security” fears. Hard to ensure.