The new British prime minister gambles: either to leave the European Union or to die

On July 24, local time, Queen Elizabeth II appointed the 15th prime minister during his reign, the new British Conservative Party leader, former foreign minister, former London mayor Boris Johnson.

After receiving the Queen’s appointment, the 55-year-old Johnson returned to Buckingham Palace from 10, Downing Street, and delivered his inauguration speech. In his speech, he first clarified the top priority after taking office: let the UK leave the EU before October 31.

On October 31, it was the last time for the Brexit period between the United Kingdom and the European Union. From the date of the official appointment of Johnson, there were only 99 days left. “The UK will either leave the European Union or die.” He said in an interview with the media.

However, it turns out that Brexit is no easy task. In the three years since the 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom, the British public opinion has become increasingly polarized, the Conservative Party has been split, and the two prime ministers have been forced to leave. At this time, Johnson will pick up the Brexit flag. Can it really break the three-year unresolved strike-off in three months?

Cabinet “big cleaning”
“The UK will leave the European Union before the deadline of October 31, no, no, but no,” this is the first day of the official inauguration of the new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to the British people.

Hard Brexit, escorting off time, there is no agreement to leave the European Union, is the slogan of Johnson when competing for the phase.

But he has not yet become prime minister. The British cabinet has already whipped up a “departure tide”. Education Minister Anne Milton, Justice and Justice Minister David Gok, and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Alan Duncan, many The members of the cabinet took the initiative to resign. Anne Milton even stated in a letter to former Prime Minister Theresa May that she was “very worried” about Brexit if she did not reach an agreement with the UK.

However, even if these people do not resign, Johnson has long had the idea of ​​kicking them out of the cabinet. On the first day of the first day of office, Johnson spent only five hours. Johnson completed the cabinet reshuffle. More than half of the members of the cabinet left by Teresa May were swept out of the house. The new cabinet members are almost all clear and are free from the Brexit and freedom. Market pie.

The British “Guardian” said that “the ruthless Johnson is revenge and hate.” Some Conservative MPs also said, “This is a summer slaughter.”

The BBC pointed out that Johnson had set up his own “wartime cabinet” and prepared for a non-agreement to leave the European Union. The members were all hard-line Brexit, led by the Secretary of the Duke of Lancaster, Michael Goff, and the rest included financial Minister Sayed Jared, Foreign Minister Dominic Rab, Minister of Brexit Stephen Barkley, Attorney General Joe Foley Cox.

According to reports, the decision related to Brexit was decided by only six members of the “wartime cabinet” including Johnson, and no longer consulted other members.

The British “Independent” believes that the rapid reorganization of the cabinet is “a tribute” to Johnson’s idol Churchill – during World War II, by Churchill, Neville Chamberlain, Clement Attlee, Earl of Halifax, Arthur · Greenwood’s five-person “wartime cabinet” to discuss the British strategy.

Earlier, Johnson pointed out in public that the person he admired most was Churchill. However, in terms of political ideas, Johnson and his idols are a singer. Churchill is one of the early “pan-Europeans” and played a leading role in the establishment of the common market and the European Union. In 2016, Johnson joined the “Brexit” camp in a clear-cut manner, arguing that Britain must leave the EU.

Johnson’s drastic reforms have also caused dissatisfaction among many people. On the same day, hundreds of people gathered outside No. 10 Downing Street to protest against the reshuffle of Johnson’s cabinet. Scottish National Party member Wisht even said that Johnson’s nightmare government would be the worst government since Mrs. Thatcher – full of extreme “Brexist” and fanatical right-wingers.

On the one hand, it is a high-profile reorganization, and on the other hand, it is a loud protest. For Johnson with a distinct personality, these have long been commonplace.

The English version of “Trump”?
Compared with the idol Churchill, people are impressed by a messy blond hair, awkward behavior, and exaggerated Boris Johnson, which is more similar to the current US President Trump.

The English version of “Trump”, many people describe Johnson like this. Trump did not hide his appreciation: On the first day of Johnson’s election, Trump sent a congratulatory message to the first time, saying that “he would be great!” The US president even said excitedly, “People call the abalone Rees is the British ‘Trump, they like me, this is what they need.”

Similarly, after Trump took office, Johnson also praised him. “Trump’s ruling seems to be chaotic, but in fact it has its own rules.” He even let the British imagine, “If it is Trump to host I am afraid that I will have come out of the famous hall.”

However, some media have noticed that Johnson and Trump are sympathetic, only after they become presidents of the United States. In 2015, during the Olympic Games in London, Trump, who had not yet been elected, criticized London’s law and order, saying it was “too dangerous.” At the time, the mayor of London, Johnson, immediately replied that “Trump should make up the lesson” and ironically said that he would not travel to parts of New York because “there may be a risk of encountering Trump.”

However, there are many similarities between Johnson and Trump: the same with a mess of blond hair, the same personality, the same conservative exclusion, even the current partner is very coincidentally small 24 years old; they claim to “let The United States has regained its greatness, and one shouted to “wake up the sleeping giant.”

“Chaotic Alliance” – “New York Times” describes the relationship between the two.

However, the US news site Quartz published an analysis article saying that the two were only 62% similar. At least from the birth, the 55-year-old Johnson belongs to the standard British upper class. His father was a British Conservative politician, his mother was a painter, and his great-grandfather was the last Minister of the Interior of the Ottoman Turkish Empire.

From Eton College to Oxford, he has been awarded a full scholarship. At the age of 10, he began to read The Economist magazine and entered the Oxford Debating Society, which is known as the cradle of the British Prime Minister, at Oxford University. In the meantime, he made a group of influential friends inside and outside the school, including the later British Prime Minister David Cameron.

That is to say, when Trump was in the business circle, Johnson had already entered the circle of British political elites, and in his accustomed British political arena, he created his own maverick label: he was free and unobtrusive. Personal life is constantly raging. He once said that Hillary Clinton is like a “sick nurse in a mental hospital,” saying that “Muslim women wear burqa looks like a letter box.” At the same time, he has a number of records of extramarital affairs.

However, these have not affected Johnson’s support rate. His non-traditional politician image has been deeply rooted in people’s minds, and people are pursuing more relaxed standards.

During his tenure as the mayor of London, he promoted cycling and went to work on his own, but he was repeatedly found to be riding a bicycle and red light. However, his street bicycle rental project, still known in London, is still called ” Boris bike.”

During the Olympics, Johnson dropped from the 320-meter high-altitude cableway to Victoria Park, waving the British flag with both hands to cheer for the Olympic athletes, but due to equipment failure, he hanged in the air for 5 minutes before returning to the ground.

Cameron, then prime minister, said, “If any other politician in the world is trapped on a strop, it will be a disaster, but for Boris Johnson, it is an absolute victory.”

On the 17th of July, the British Conservative Party leader’s campaign speech, Johnson’s reality was at a loss. At that time, he suddenly pulled out a pack of transparent vacuum-packed British specialty pickled fish from the podium, and angrily accused the EU regulations that sent the iced fish to be accompanied by ice packs. “It’s ridiculous.” Criticizing the move is meaningless and costly. Philippine, which is more damaging to the environment and health, emphasizes that the Brexit can end this “destructive over-regulation” and thus promote economic growth.

However, the BBC subsequently verified that Johnson’s statement was completely untenable because the EU’s regulation of food temperature only covered raw fish and did not include smoked food such as smoked fish. The latter’s regulatory standards are set by the countries themselves. In other words, it is precisely the British Food Standards Agency (FSA) that requires the addition of ice packs.

However, some analysts inside the British political circles believe that Johnson’s straits are only superficial. When he is competing for power, the shackles and fierceness in his bones are more than the traditional politicians.

“There is a cold face under his friendly mask.” Conservative MP and columnist Matthew Paris said that Johnson said, “Highly intelligent…the Conservative leader belongs to him sooner or later.”

Johnson’s “betrayal” to Cameron can reveal this. In 2016, before the Brexit referendum, Prime Minister Cameron, who was smug, suddenly received a notice from his comrade-in-arms and former fellow Johnson: he will vote to support Brexit. At this time, Johnson will publicly announce his support for Brexit. There are still 9 minutes.

It is worth pondering that there are British media reports that Johnson is the mayor of London and it is Cameron’s strong support.

Some sources pointed out that before the referendum, Johnson had written two articles that were completely opposite, supporting the Brexit and the European Union respectively. But in the end, he ventured into the Brexit camp. “The only chance of a lifetime is to cast a vote that really brings change,” he said at the time.

The result of the referendum was released, and the 51.9% Brexit support rate made the world look awkward. Boris Johnson was also bet on the treasure.

Gambling “hard Brexit”
Johnson has long been known for his tough Brexit position. He refused Teresa May’s previous negotiation method and bluntly said that “a bad Brexit agreement is worse than a non-European agreement.”

According to Johnson’s claim, the UK needs to renegotiate the Brexit clause with the EU and obtain more favorable conditions. If Europe does not promise to renegotiate, then Britain will be willing to leave the EU without agreement. Johnson also threatened that if the British demands could not be met, the UK would refuse to pay the £39 billion Brexit “breakup fee”. He stressed that “British Brexit is as big as Europe.”

However, the newly elected leaders of the EU also unanimously stated that they will not restart the Brexit negotiations and will not change the Brexit agreement reached with former Prime Minister Theresa May. European Commission spokesperson Annika Breithardt pointed out on July 29 that the EU does not care about the UK’s preparations for a non-agreement to leave the EU, but she stressed that no agreement to leave the EU is not the first choice, and once there is no agreement Europe really happens, and the committee will give priority to safeguarding the interests of the EU.

BBC senior political affairs reporter Kunsberg analysis believes that Johnson’s new cabinet will prepare for Brexit at all costs, but in order to leave the EU, Johnson is very likely to promote legislation to ensure all rights of more than 3 million EU citizens living in the UK. This shows the EU that after the Brexit, the UK is still willing to cooperate with it.

The new cabinet member Michael Goff said that the British government will still go all out to prepare for leaving the country, and said that the possibility of the UK without a deal to leave the EU is “very large.” In an article in The Times, Johnson wrote that Johnson has authorized the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jared, to allocate about £1 billion in emergency funds for television and billboard campaigns, while coping with the extra costs that may be caused by hard Brexit.

Just as Johnson reorganized the “wartime cabinet” and tried to completely withdraw from the European Union, the opposition Labor Party leader Corbin had publicly stated in his speech that he would take all actions to prevent the non-agreement of Brexit. He also denounced that Johnson lacked “credibility” and supported a second referendum on the issue of Brexit.

There are also many heavyweights inside the Conservative Party who openly oppose Johnson’s hard Brexit strategy and even say they will resort to the court to prevent unofficial Brexit.

Scottish Chief Minister Nicolas Sturgeon made an emergency meeting with Johnson on July 29, saying that he resolutely opposed the non-agreement of the Brexit and threatened to launch the Scottish independence referendum again.

In the meeting with Johnson, the Chief Minister of Wales, Mark Drekford, also warned that “it will not let the UK hard to leave the European Union. For the United Kingdom, it will be a disaster.”

And Johnson’s attitude is, “Those who make a bet that is not optimistic about the UK will lose their brilliance…”

The British “Guardian” analysis, Johnson’s attitude is tough, want to quickly break through the way of hard Brexit, but his actions will undoubtedly make the situation more complicated.

But this is also due to Johnson, who has lost patience with the negotiations for three years. The latest polls show that British nationals are becoming polarized on the issue of Brexit: 48% of the people expressed support for hard Brexit and no longer postponed; 33% of the people support to give up Brexit; and those who are willing to continue to accept postponement only account for 5%.

So far, no one can predict whether the curtain of Brexit will fall before October 31. But what is certain is that the UK and the European Union will not be the ultimate winners when the prolonged Brexit crash is settled.

The only thing that may feel a little optimistic is the recent travel to the UK: as of July 31, the GBP/USD exchange rate has been brushed to a new low for 28 months – since Boris Johnson took office, the British pound has fallen by nearly 2.4%.