Negative spillover effects between Japan and South Korea

Since the beginning of July, Japan-ROK relations have continued to deteriorate and trade disputes have intensified. What is particularly worrying at the moment is that, both in terms of public opinion and support, or in terms of the basis of governance and even the legitimacy of diplomacy, Japan and South Korea have fallen into a quirky circle of “who will show weakness first and who will not be a country.” Another hidden worry is that in strengthening the choice of tools for countering each other’s capabilities, Japan and South Korea have more or less demonstrated that they will not hesitate to break through the bottom line, and even let the national Games let go.

In the face of Japan-Korea confrontation, which is difficult to see an effective solution to the short-term solution in the short term, many views only see the Japan-South Korea relationship in the spiral downward trend, focusing on how to damage the two countries, and people may ignore the protectionism in trade. Against the background of growing intensification, globalization and regionalization, the negative spillover effect of Japan and South Korea actually far exceeds the two countries. The government’s opposition, economic and trade deterioration, corporate damage, public opinion, and multilateralism are emerging. The medium- and long-term effects caused by the people’s sense of regional belonging and integrated cognition cannot be underestimated. It is difficult to avoid the direct impact of the speeding up of China-Japan-Korea FTA negotiations, building a Northeast Asian economic circle, and promoting the RCEP to achieve initial drafting.

First of all, from the perspective of Japan-South Korea’s regional cooperation and trade policy coordination, the most attractive and powerful, the largest scale and potential, and the most opportunities and vitality are undoubtedly the first to promote the China-Japan-ROK FTA mechanism. The Sino-Japanese-Korean FTA’s production and government research and negotiations began in 2012. Fourteen rounds of negotiations have been held by the end of last year. The agreement between the three countries to reach a level higher than the RCEP free trade level can be said to have only the final sprint, but Japan and South Korea Nearly the national game, hurting the economy and trade, and ruining the face, will undoubtedly make the final sprint into the final sigh. This is what China, Japan and South Korea should try to avoid.

From the perspective of striving to build a Northeast Asian economic circle, it has experienced a tortuous course of nearly 30 years since the end of the Cold War. The regional cooperation in Northeast Asia with the engine of China, Japan and Korea has grown from small to large, and it is very likely to become the future of the North American Free Trade Area and the European Union. A world-class regional economy that combines regional scale, multilateral cooperation and demonstration effects. The new round of bilateral and multilateral interactions and linkages driven by the situation in the peninsula in early 2018 led to long-standing consensus and exploration in Northeast Asia. However, Japan and South Korea took turns to resort to counter-measures and squeeze rules, which is unfavorable to bilateral and Multilateralism will undoubtedly affect the efforts to build a Northeast Asian economic circle, which is what the countries in the region do not want to see.

Finally, from the perspective of the regional cooperation mechanism for building the Asia-Pacific region, once the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) covering 16 East Asian countries is successful, there will be a population of 3.5 billion and a GDP of 30 trillion, based on and above the WTO rules. FTA. Negotiations around RCEP have been completed 80%, and 16 parties including China, Japan and South Korea have reached a consensus on signing the draft before the end of the year. However, Japan-Korea’s economic confrontation to global confrontation will undoubtedly increase the difficulty of RCEP’s future negotiations. Some negative effects may even dilute the results of years of perseverance.

In the face of the escalation of the contradictions between Japan and South Korea, we are not members of the Asian family, we can’t sit on the mountain with a spectator mentality. In the rapid globalization, “you have me, I have you” is the normal state of regional cooperation, no country can be independent. Japan and South Korea are neighbors who cannot move geographically. The psychological distance should also be close to each other. I hope that Japan and South Korea will be aware of the contradiction of this kind of opposition far beyond the two countries while properly controlling the contradictions and handling differences. Ending the endless external struggle and internal consumption and moistening the two sides at an early date, and benefiting multilaterally.

As a geographical neighbor, a partner in economics and trade, and a promoter of regional integration, China should join hands with the international community to provide objective and possible assistance to Japan and South Korea in reducing hostility and solving problems. For example, we can use the home mechanism of the China-Japan-ROK Leaders’ Meeting at the end of the year to persuade and promote talks, provide necessary facilities for dialogue and consultation between the two sides, and jointly create an international environment conducive to the reconciliation of Japan and South Korea, a consultative public opinion environment, and pragmatism. The atmosphere of negotiation. As a major trading country, Japan and South Korea have their own “cooperative circle”, “friend circle” and “cheer team”. From this perspective, the negative spillover effects of Japan and South Korea’s opposition are not as expected, and their potential impact once Realizing the two countries, which are also export-oriented, may not be affordable.