On the 25th, local time, during the G7 summit in France, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Trump reached a basic framework for trade negotiations between the two countries, and at the end of the UN General Assembly in late September, the agreement was signed in detail. Japan’s commitment to buy a large amount of backlog of corn in the United States has been ridiculed.
The Japan-US trade negotiations have not been too tossing and unexpectedly blossoming in advance, and Japan has a feeling of giving back regardless of how it is interpreted. When the United States continues to sacrifice trade protectionism and dominationism, the Japan-US big show will soon be successful, what kind of economic calculations, and even diplomatic games? For Abe to send the other party a list of frameworks that seem to have no time to work, is there really no risk of sequelae?
First of all, the issue of Japan-US trade is both an old problem and a new one. Since the 1950s, the two countries have not broken trade negotiations, trade disputes and even trade wars. Trade negotiations are the thermometers for economic and trade relations between the two countries, and the changes in economic strength between Japan and the United States have changed. After the “new” entered the 21st century, the trade relationship between Japan and the United States became less simple, geopolitics and diplomacy were all wrapped up in it. Although this trade contest gave Japan a sense of contempt, it also liked to obtain short-term direct benefits. Compared with Rump, Japan can only hope to gain long-term benefits. Fortunately, it has adhered to the bottom line that does not exceed the CPTPP standard and temporarily maintains the demands of the automobile industry.
Second, the issue of Japan-US trade is both an internal issue and a diplomatic issue. The internal affairs lie in Japan’s pursuit of liberalization of economy and trade. Therefore, since the beginning of the new century, Japan’s openness in promoting multilateral negotiations on trade and coordinating trade has been generally improved, and the agricultural sector has gradually opened its doors passively or actively. The acceptance of imported agricultural products is getting higher and higher in life. This is also the basic premise that Abe’s cabinet can make concessions in the agricultural field, even at the expense of some domestic agricultural products. As far as diplomacy is concerned, Japan-US trade negotiations are not only a straightforward approach to trade, but also testing mutual diplomacy.
A barometer of the trend. Trump is concession for industrial products with short-term impact for re-election, in exchange for the interests of the peasants who are currently suffering. Japan will certainly count the loss of the embankment in the embankment. In the future, the game will be revived by pursuing the US military expenses in Japan. Interests are declining.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, with the acquiescence and support of the US side, either or not, Abe has already harvested the results including the victory of the Senate election. This time, the sentiment of the US investment is expected, and the pulling effect is in accordance with the US. The statement is more than 7 billion US dollars, which is entirely within the scope of Japan.
Finally, for Japan, on the one hand, it is necessary to consolidate and expand economic and trade relations with important trading partners such as China and Southeast Asia, and promote the continuous consolidation of “Abenomics”. On the other hand, it is also necessary to show the charm of “overlooking the globe diplomacy” on the regional and international stage, paving the way for Japan’s “strength diplomacy” represented by “Indian diplomacy”. The former is inseparable from China’s help. The latter cannot do without the support of the United States and weigh the interests. It must avoid the geopolitical risks from the East and consider the uncertainty from the West.
In the trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, it is low-key and self-defeating. It is hard to say that it will surely win the Japanese-style goodwill in the Japan-US trade negotiations, although it is known that in the light of the past, it is very changeable and often cool. Rump, there will be many unexpected sequelae, but for Abe, it is also a wise choice between helplessness and reality.