Not surprisingly, the new Ericsson Mobile Report is optimistic about the future of 5G technology. This article briefly describes some of the most important forecasting data.
“With the opening of 5G in one market after another, we are in a real moment. In the past, no generation of mobile technology can promote economic growth like 5G. It surpasses the human interconnect and will fully realize the Internet of Things (IoT). And the fourth industrial revolution.” This is the opening paragraph of the Ericsson Mobile Report in June 2019.
Almost all major technological advances now go through Gartner’s “hype cycle.” Nowadays, everyone is looking forward to the new technology that allows us to greet the new world with optimism and dreams. However, after a while, we began to see suppliers and the media were actually too excited, things did not develop as expected, until the end, the reality is disappointing.
Despite this, Ericsson’s support for 5G in its Internet Mobile Report is impressive. The reason for the optimism is that it is supported by a large amount of data, but it is difficult to sort out the data from 36 documents. So let’s summarize some of the most important predictions (and finally my comments).
Global 5G growth forecast
1. “At the end of 2019, there are more than 10 million 5G users expected worldwide.”
2. “We now expect 1.9 billion 5G users to use enhanced mobile broadband by the end of 2024. By then, this will account for more than 20% of all mobile users. LTE users are expected to peak in 2022, about 5.3 billion users. The number will then slowly decline.”
3. “By 2024, 5G networks will carry 35% of global mobile data traffic.”
4. “By 2024, 5G will cover 65% of the world’s population.”
5. “By 2024, NB-IoT and Cat-M technologies will account for nearly 45% of mobile IoT connectivity.”
6. “At the end of 2024, nearly 35% of mobile IoT connections will be broadband IoT, with 4G connections accounting for the majority. But 5G connections will support more advanced applications.”
7. “Although the 5G timeline is still facing challenges, equipment vendors are expected to offer different frequency bands and architecture support for a range of devices in 2019.”
8. “The spectrum sharing chipset is currently under development and is expected to be used for 5G commercial equipment by the end of 2019.”
9. “VoLTE is the foundation for voice and communication services on 5G devices. Users are expected to reach 2.1 billion by the end of 2019. By the end of 2024, VoLTE users are expected to reach 5.9 billion, accounting for 85% of LTE and 5G subscribers. the above.”
5G predictions in different regions
1. “In North America, service providers have launched commercial 5G services, including fixed wireless access and mobile access. By the end of 2024, we expect nearly 270 million 5G users in the region, accounting for more than 60% of mobile users. ”
2. “In Western Europe, the first commercial launch of 5G in April this year highlighted the development momentum of 5G in the region. By the end of 2024, 5G is expected to account for about 40% of mobile users.”
3. “In Central and Eastern Europe, the first 5G users will appear in 2019 and will account for 15% of the total number of users in 2024.”
4. “In Northeast Asia, the 5G share of the region is expected to reach 47% (by the end of 2024).”
5. “In India, 5G is expected to be operational in 2022 and will account for 6% of total mobile subscribers by the end of 2024.”
6. “In the Middle East and North Africa, we expect leading communications service providers to begin commercial 5G deployments in 2019 and deploy them in large quantities in 2021. It is expected that there will be 60 million 5G subscribers by the end of 2024, accounting for 3 of the total mobile subscribers. %.”
7. “In Southeast Asia and Oceania, the first batch of 5G commercial equipment is expected to be launched in the first half of 2019. By the end of 2024, nearly 12% of users in the region are expected to use 5G.”
8. “In Latin America, the first 5G deployments will be implemented in the 3.5GHz band in 2019. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico are expected to be the first countries to deploy 5G in the region, and it is expected that from 2020 onwards, Users will gradually increase. By the end of 2024, 5G is expected to account for about 7% of mobile users.”
Is 5G really unstoppable?
These predictions seem entirely reasonable if they are considered separately. After all, 10 million 5G users are only a small part of the world. There are rumors that Apple’s next-generation iPhone will include 5G features. Moreover, there are still five years to go by 2024. Who would dare to say that a faster connection will not make people feel refreshed? Similarly, North America and Northeast Asia will experience the fastest 5G development.
But when you put them together, these numbers show a 5G inevitable feeling, but it may be too early. To make this growth a reality, it takes a lot of money and involves all parties, including operators, chip makers, equipment suppliers, phone manufacturers and consumers.
I did not say that 5G will not rule the world. I just said that when so many things have to be completed in a relatively short period of time, the probability of making a mistake is greatly increased. Don’t be surprised if 5G becomes the global default standard longer than expected. Ericsson (and all other vendors) seem to think that this is inevitable.