Nazarbayev at the turning point in history

After resigning from the presidency, Nazarbayev remains the most influential person in Kazakhstan. The capital is named after him, and her daughter is the speaker of the upper house. He still retains the chairman of the National Security Conference (direct leadership of the National Security Council of the powerful department), the chairman of the ruling party “Guangming Road”, and the members of the Constitutional Council, ensuring the transfer of power after the resignation. The power base, organizational influence and institutional basis, and calmly deal with their own affairs.

The fate of the transfer of power in Central Asia
There is a saying in Central Asia that is widely circulated. “A strong person can become weak after losing power.”

Turkmenistan’s President Niyazov and Uzbek President Karimov defended power to the last moment of his life. The new leader has not received the predecessor’s favor, but also has emerged from the numerous survivors through the brutal competition, naturally no longer grateful to the predecessor. The first thing after changing the dynasty is to reshuffle and clear the power base of the predecessor. The large portrait of Niyazov was sent to the warehouse, and many statues of the city landscape were also removed, and the traces left in public political life were carefully erased. Karimov was a singer when he was alive. Shortly after his death, his eldest daughter was under house arrest and his cronies were completely liquidated.

The third President of Kyrgyzstan, Atambayev, learned from the lessons of the first two presidents of the country (Akayev, Bakiyev), and promised in the form of a constitution that he would no longer seek re-election and finally succeeded. The realization of the first power and peaceful handover after the independence of the Kyrgyz Republic. But the tragic fate of the transfer of power in Central Asia is still difficult to avoid. A few months after leaving the presidency, Attambayev was “betrayed” by his successor. The prime minister appointed before his departure was arrested. The Social Democratic Party, who served as the party chairman, was erected. His former presidential immunity would be denied, meaning he might face jail time.

In the Soviet era, Nazarbayev made friends with these people. In the process of hardly climbing the highest peak of power, they helped each other, talked nothing, talked about all kinds of conspiracy, and had no reservations about the political calculations behind them. Nazarbayev witnessed how the “brothers” who once said the joy of the wine pointed to the mountains and rivers, so they turned from the prosperous to the rapid, and even the late festivals were not guaranteed, and there were more sorrows of sorrow and sorrow. By himself, he has a heartfelt experience of the cruelty of the political struggle and the sorrowful sense of destiny. He has to make plans early and plan ahead. Especially in the last ten years, he has witnessed the rise and fall of the color revolution, and he was shocked by the elections of Trump and Markron, which are completely out of the rules. They are afraid of the modern mass politics that they once thought they could manipulate. meaning.

The main ethnic group of Central Asia is a descendant of the nomadic people. The leader of the nomadic nation established in history, the leader is often elected by the lords of the major tribes, the inheritance rights are transmitted horizontally between the brothers, and in the intergenerational transmission, the system of other potential heirs and the standard inheritance rights are not excluded. Therefore, every transition from a Khan to the next Khan means significant tension and potential violence, and intergenerational transfers more often lead to civil war.

The power transfer of the aforementioned Central Asian countries is naturally in line with the modern democratic system, but if the content is deeply studied, it will be the same as the power transfer of the nomadic Khanates hundreds of years ago. The President of Tajikistan, Rakhmon, was able to govern by winning the civil war. Now he is trying to cultivate his son and pass on the genes of family rule.

It is hard to say whether Kazakhstan’s power transfer can get rid of this historical fate. The new President Tokayev is the old comrade-in-arms of Nazarbayev; Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Nazarbayeva, has a strong desire to rise to the top of the political arena; former Prime Minister Masimov, It is the first trader in the management of Nash’s rule of the country; Ma Ming, the prime minister who was not on the fire line not long ago, is a dark horse in politics; in addition, there is the nephew of the Nazarbayev, who has always been hidden but in charge of the powerful department, Sadbart. . They are all very promising successors, but they have no absolute qualifications and strength to become the only candidate.

According to the current political calendar, Nazarbayev will launch his favorite successor to run for the presidency before the presidential election in April next year. This gives the competitors a vertical and horizontal stage, and allows Nash to have time to fully observe the capabilities and character of the real candidate. In addition to the consideration of candidates, there are many specific legal and technical issues to be addressed. Nazarbayev chose to resign before “Naurus”, the country’s longest holiday of the year, just to avoid causing too much speculation and reaction among the people.

Nazarbayev’s initiative to leave is to better stay in the future.

Although Nazarbayev unloaded the burden of state affairs, his decision to make a choice in the next year was never easier than his 30-year political career. Instead, he would become politically sensible and life-long because of his sensitivity. The ultimate test of merit.

Human Vs system
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nazarbayev once wanted to compete for the position of the Soviet Prime Minister, hoping to turn the tide and retain the Soviet Union, the largest country in the world. When the general trend has gone, he can also judge the situation and responsibly, and put the value pursuit of life back on the rise of his nation-state.

Since he was the chairman of the Kazakh Soviet Republic’s Council of Ministers in 1984, Nazarbayev has been in power for 35 years, bringing Kazakh from an unknown nomadic nation on the edge of world history to the top 50 in the world and becoming a modern nation. The founders of the country, qualifications, merits and prestige are unparalleled. It is up to the political logic and the people’s heart to arrange his own succession.

Previously, the politicians who stayed in the Soviet era, only Yeltsin took the initiative to implement the power transfer when he was in power, to protect himself and the family behind the peace, but also for Russia’s long-term stability, to recommend Putin such a trustworthy manager. Nazarbayev’s initiative to resign, let the next generation of politicians see hope, play the role of their own political stabilizer, and lay the foundation for the smooth conclusion of the final period of political career. It is indeed a wise move.

However, if I only think that Nash is just like Yeltsin, and that he is retiring, it is too small to marry him. Nazarbayev’s political philosophy has two sources: one is the cultural tradition of the nomadic nation’s pragmatic and fickle, and the other is the valuable experience of the great politicians in history. He has repeatedly talked about the lessons of historical works for himself. He is based on Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, and has never concealed Washington and Kemal, who are in Central Asia. Therefore, although he manages the country as an old man, he can keep pace with the times, forge ahead, and the tradition of governance style is not conservative, enlightened and not radical, not bound by any dogma, nor surrendered by any pressure, but reached later in the ruling period. The realm of what you want and what you don’t want.

In the final analysis, he closely combines the political glory of the individual with the rise and fall of the country. He himself has become the embodiment of the country’s destiny; unlike other politicians, subject to institutional constraints or interest groups, it is difficult to display an ambition. Only firmly grasp the power. This kind of transcendentality makes Nazarbayev completely different from other politicians who grew up in the Soviet era, and can examine the political reality of the fly camp shit from a broad historical perspective. The power, wealth, and fame that others have pursued throughout their lives have been a smattering for him. The only thing that still cares is the history of the history. In other words, how does he become a generation of historical greats from a world-class politician who has enjoyed wide influence?

What he is facing now is also the fundamental political problem that these great historical people have faced: people or institutions? The answer of the Western sages is the latter, that is, a clear constitutional text and a very rigid system as a permanent contract. The Eastern Emperor chose the mysterious and all-encompassing “ancestor’s family law.” In Putin’s words, politics is the art of possibility. When Nazarbayev was alive, he was both the source of rules and institutions, and the defender and interpreter of the “ancestor’s family law.” After he left, no one had such political energy. Whether the order and rules he established can be sustainable, and whether it will be easily changed due to the replacement of the ruling party is the biggest unknown for the long-term construction of Kazakhstan.

Astana, Kazakhstan (now renamed Nur Sultan), Presidential Palace 53WORLD VIEWH

The times create heroes. Nazarbayev is very clear that it is no longer possible to have a second Nazarbayev afterwards. Ten years ago, he confessed to the friends of neighboring countries, including Chinese leaders, and expressed his intention to cultivate the diversity within the ruling group. However, it is difficult to have Jiamu under the big tree. The political diversity he created is closely related to his own diversity. Once he loses his lead, it is easy to become a vicious competition for mutual demolition.

Similarly, the democratic transformation of Kazakhstan, which he has been pushing for, is almost complete, but its effective operation is completely dependent on Knock himself. From the choice of the country’s development direction and foreign strategy, the specific measures of moving to the capital and the Latinization of the text are all driven and implemented by N’s initiative. The bureaucratic system is absolutely loyal to him, and it also loses the motivation to act spontaneously. The people believe in him and follow him, but for the unchanging political results of 30 years, it is inevitable that they will lose their enthusiasm and boredom is inevitable.

Nazarbayev’s initiative to leave is to better stay in the future. He sincerely hopes that his power transfer will be smooth and implemented as soon as possible. It is best to see with his own eyes the smooth opening of the political and economic transformation of Kazakhstan. A new era born from him is different from him. But the premise of all this is that their political status and historical evaluation must be ensured, and their political ideals and ambitions must be pursued consistently. In other words, the Nazarbayev road, Nazarbayev’s thought, and Nazarbayev’s perseverance are more important to the country than Nazarbayev’s stay in politics. And what exactly is Nazarbayevism, he will use a few years in the rest of his life to make a clear and authoritative explanation.