Japan’s statistical myth is about to be shattered?

The Japanese are serious, the author has repeatedly experienced in the process of doing social investigations.

When you are a master, you need to do a field survey to write a thesis. I went to the rural area of ​​Shizuoka to investigate the livelihood of the peasants, and the teacher of the team entered the village, letting the peasants bring us the bookkeeping of the house. For the first time, the author saw such a fine bookkeeping content, even if only a bottle of soy sauce was bought, the farmers would carefully record them. The field investigation gave the author a very deep understanding of the living conditions of rural areas and farmers in Japan.

With countless investigation opportunities, I began to believe in the statistics of the Japanese countries. When I was studying economics, I had a statistical class. I had some common sense in the calculation of the system. However, when I looked at the statistics of the Japanese government, there were not a lot of statistics on sample surveys. They would rather spend time and effort on investigating the whole, rather than simply The ground estimates the overall situation from the sample. Such statistics have provided various plans for the Japanese government and indeed provide very good data support.

However, Japan’s statistical mythology seems to be shattered in the era of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

On January 28, 2019, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, which is responsible for all aspects of statistics in Japan, issued a communique saying that 23 of the 56 “basic statistics” that the Japanese government attached most importance to were “wrong”.

When the Japanese media reported various data released by neighboring countries, they almost completely believed that those statistics were not convincing, whether it was a big or small problem, and there were more or less water injections. The author has participated in the statistical survey work in Japan. Although this statement to the Japanese media is not entirely convincing, I compare the Japanese practices and feel that they are beyond reproach.

When I saw the communiqué of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the author’s statistics on Japan were even less convincing than the statistics of other countries. Nearly half of the statistics have gone wrong, which is rare in any country.

Why do countries that emphasize the true statistics of statistics have the result of statistical “human fraud”? In Japan, watching the live broadcast of the congressional debate, seeing the opposition party asking questions without asking for it; reading the newspaper’s criticism of statistical fraud and drizzle, in addition to the unbelief of Japanese statistics, the author has a heartfelt conscience for the Japanese parliament and public opinion. Disappointed.

Of course, the author knows that since Japan’s “people’s savior” Shinzo Abe, Japan’s economic growth has been six years and two months. Abe will have three years to become prime minister in the future, and the new paradox in the party is that the president can completely break through the three-year term of nine years and achieve permanent re-election. In the future, Abe will be able to do at least 6 years for the Liberal Democratic Party president (the president of the Japanese ruling party and the cabinet prime minister). Japan’s economic growth is also likely to continue for another six years.

But if economic growth is not true, it can be done through statistical fraud.

The Liberal Democratic Party has repeatedly said that the revision of statistical methods is the personal idea of ​​the Prime Minister’s secretary. The Prime Minister’s secretary called the person in charge of the statistics to the Prime Minister’s office and simply said his own thoughts. The statistics of Japan can be changed: from the full statistics to the sampling statistics, and the revision of the statistical methods is not disclosed at all. Significant changes have taken place in economic statistics. The secretary can fix this big thing, and the Congress does not pursue it. The public opinion is almost indiscriminate.

After the Japanese Prime Minister’s secretary has overthrown the dominoes in statistics, can the statistics of this country maintain its authority?