Since the beginning of the campaign, Trump has always appeared in the face of the world in the face of “conservatism” in the economic field. He strongly criticized globalization and believed that this was the chief culprit of the large number of blue-collar classes in the United States. And threatened to reverse this situation. After successfully winning the White House, Trump also made a series of actions, and indeed practiced this proposition and commitment. Under his leadership, the United States set off a trend of counter-globalization, trade protection is prevalent, and there is a global economic order. Suffered a serious threat.
Trump’s set is of course to cater to the voters. As everyone knows, Trump’s fans are mainly white middle- and lower-level people represented by rusted blue-collar workers. In the wave of globalization, the US manufacturing industry has limited competitiveness and market share has passed, which has led to the survival of this huge group of workers. At the same time, they have to bear the supporting ideology of globalization—that is, freedom, equality, human rights and other political correctness have brought about the negative impact of immigration, welfare seizure and social security decline. Under the double pressure, this part of the people’s grievances are getting bigger and bigger. Trump is using this point to be able to sneak in. As a politically motivated person, he overthrew the traditional establishment system and successfully entered the White House.
But there is a problem here: Trump’s set, although it can politically win the people for a while, but economically, it lacks common sense. As a traditional manufacturing industry that absorbs a large number of ordinary people’s employment, the general technology content is low, so the competition in these industries does not require too much technology and gold content. The main reason is the cost and efficiency. The more specific point is the employee compensation. Organizational discipline, hard work and hardship, infrastructure support, and institutional support.
These are precisely the weaknesses of the United States. As a top developed country, the salary level of American employees is self-evident, hard-working, and disciplined. It is also incompatible with the free-spirited American fan. As for infrastructure support, the United States has long been outdated. In terms of institutions, the Western-style democratic mechanism of the United States has determined that the US government can provide relatively limited assistance to enterprises, and the strong presence of trade unions may also constitute potential or direct Threat. Whether or not these factors are in line with humanitarian standards (some are indeed morally commendable, but some are also unreasonably excessive standards), but the fact is that these have weakened the competitiveness of traditional American manufacturing, making it impossible to The industrial countries are facing competition.
In this context, Trump forced to promote globalization, and hopes to return the industry to the United States through this move, which is totally inconsistent with economic logic and even unrealistic. If you don’t want to do this, then Trump has only two ways – either to let workers accept lower pay and more busy work, or even to reduce environmental standards to a considerable extent; or to directly reject “foreign goods” entry. Forcibly create a backward industrial system with higher cost and lower efficiency.
There is no doubt that these two roads will not work. The former will only let the fans quickly abandon Trump – they choose him to get more benefits, rather than pay more work, but let their salary down. As for the latter, this kind of closed-door gameplay can certainly allow the rust belt blue collar to regain work, but at the cost of letting all Americans suffer more consumer spending, putting the whole people in trouble and consuming the resources and wealth of the United States in circulation. In the backward economic cycle of reciprocation – basically, it was almost the same as that before the Opium War, and eventually the entire economic development of the United States was stagnant.
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It is precisely because of this, although Trump can rely on these routines, flicking a large number of ordinary people with relatively low levels of knowledge and knowledge, but in the elite, almost everyone sneered at him. At the beginning of Trump’s coming to power, most of the intellectuals (not only the United States, and even many Chinese scholars) decided that the Trump phenomenon was only temporary, and the United States would return to the traditional track sooner or later. Blood can only win the people for a while. In order to get the long-term support of the people, in the final analysis, they still have to make their pockets affordable. In view of Trump’s reverse globalization and trade protection, completely violating the laws of the economy, it is doomed to be unsuccessful, so the elite generally believe that he will be abandoned in the future because the election promises cannot be fulfilled.
But the problem is that all that the elites have guessed has not happened. Although politically, Trump is still strongly attacked by traditional establishments because of its ethical attributes and anti-political correct routines. But on the economic front, Trump is not in trouble because of his own anti-globalization and trade protection. Even in the past two years, the US economic trend has been a strong recovery.
Why is this happening? A lot of people summed up the reason why Trump took the dog and took advantage of Obama’s cheapness. After the second term of Obama, the US economy has gradually stepped out of the trough and re-accumulated upward momentum. Trump’s acceptance of Obama’s class directly inherited this positive and enjoyed the fruits of the US recovery. This has given the excellent performance of the US economy in the past two years – the so-called pre-planting trees and the descendants of the cold.
This explanation certainly makes sense. Without the foundation laid by the Obama era, the Trump administration’s economic performance in the past two years must not be so good. But in addition to enjoying its success, there is actually a very important reason for the recovery of the US economy. Trump does not really follow the development path he said!
After all, Trump is not stupid! Trade protection and counter-globalization are dead ends – almost all economists and politicians know that Trump cannot see it. The reason why he said this is just to make the voters happy and consolidate the political foundation. I really want to play according to this idea. He also knows that he will not be able to find a second term.
What is the true intention of Trump? In fact, today, this is already very clear – it has reversed the name of globalization and redefines the reality of globalization.
The current global order was created by the United States. But the United States created this order a few decades ago, so the rules of the game were also based on the situation at the time. At the time, this set of rules did maximize the benefits of the United States – not only to capture the most benefits, but also to effectively suppress potential competitors. However, Shiyi has moved from time to time. In the past few decades, the global economic structure has undergone great changes. Although the United States is still the biggest beneficiary of the existing order, its relative share is already far worse than before. The most crucial point is that from the perspective of trends, Its status is also challenged by emerging countries, especially China.
In this case, redefining the global order and creating a new game rule that can maintain the long-term advantage of the United States under the current situation becomes what Trump wants to do most. As long as this new order is completed, not only Trump’s power base is guaranteed, but even Roosevelt, as the heroic president of the re-creation of the United States, is a famous history!
This is the real motivation for Trump’s counter-globalization initiatives.
In the past two years, Trump has attacked globalization on the one hand and attacked the current economic order. On the other hand, it has fought a trade war and frequently issued trade threats. These measures seem to be rebellious and counter-trend. But in fact, the former is the moral foundation for publicizing the situation from the public opinion and loosening the global order. The latter is a real attack. With the status and influence of the United States still strong, it forces the countries to accept Trump’s redefined game rules. In order to gradually build a new global order that will once again maximize the long-term sustainability of US interests.
From public opinion to actual combat, Trump took a shot and both hands attacked at the same time. The most important thing is that this set of methods is to reverse the globalization as a means to redefine the purpose of globalization, so it does not violate the anti-intellectual words of his ordinary people!
This is definitely a god level operation! Although Trump is a political amateur, at least in this wave of methods, he has definitely reached the level of a big politician!
However, although Trump’s move is a godsend, it seems that he is really saving the United States sincerely. But this is the case, but he still has not been understood by the elite, whether it is the global capital or the traditional establishment, still regards it as a stab in the eyes, intending to get rid of it.
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Why is that?
There are two main points to answer:
First of all, Trump’s gameplay is very risky. It’s true that Trump’s set of re-engineering of the United States, logically speaking, also has the possibility of success. But the problem is that the uncertainty is too great, and once it fails, the United States will suffer a lot.
In essence, Trump’s gameplay is not broken, but broken. He wants to destroy the current global order and then complete the reconstruction of the rules of the game on the ruins.
This risk is too great. Although there are some hidden dangers in the long run, at least in the present, the United States as a whole is still the biggest beneficiary of the current global order.
In the case that the income is still rich, Trump has to smash the pot of eating. If he can fulfill the promise of reconstruction after the destruction, it will be better to say; if it can not be achieved, the new global order led by the United States will not be established. Then it became a stealing chicken without eclipsing the rice.
This consequence is very serious. After all, globalization must be continued. The United States wants to overthrow the reconstruction. It does not mean that other economies think so. Today, unlike the past, although the United States is still the boss, but the latter is no longer the same as the grasshoppers of the past, some of them have a certain ability to maintain globalization.
Now the United States is picking up the child. If it really makes the game impossible, then everyone can’t do it. It can only be added to the new order in accordance with the new rules defined by the United States. But if the United States picks up the child, the old order can still keep running under the efforts of other powerful people – even if this kind of operation is not as good as before, but as long as it can survive, then everyone may not join the new order advocated by the United States. go with. If this is the case, the United States is equal to self-exile and has marginalized itself.
Of course, with the strength of the United States, even if it is a globalization, as long as it feels wrong and wants to rejoin the old order, then everyone must not refuse. But this retreat, not to mention in vain, wait for it to re-enter, the rules have long been drafted by others, and the United States wants to get the previous status, but it is difficult!
This is what everyone is worried about. For the elite and the intellectual community, since the United States still can still benefit from the existing order, even if they know that there are hidden dangers, they have not broken the determination and courage to make a comeback. In their view, it is okay to think of ways to reform, but to carry out the revolution, the risk is too great – they can not afford the loss of failure.
Trump’s gameplay is to revolutionize and push it back. This is not the right way. Reshuffling, it is something that the poor like – after all, they have nothing, want to be rich and can only seek in danger; and those who have already held a lot of resources, this is a natural resentment. Based on this logic, even the elite can understand Trump, knowing that this set is for the future of the United States, but because of uncertainty about the future, they still dare not support and even oppose it.
This is from the perspective of the country’s justice. From a private perspective, the elite is more hostile to Trump.
It is true that Trump’s approach is to allow the United States to re-establish its absolute advantage in the global order. However, this globalization is not global. Existing global capital, they are profitable based on the current order. Trump destroyed the current order and re-established a new order. This process of reintroduction also means that the global capital of the United States will be seriously hurt and reshuffled in this round of turmoil. Even if Trump succeeds in the future, the global capitals that will benefit from the new order in the future, and their masters, will not be the current probability. Based on this logic, can they pay for their own net worth in order to avoid the so-called national future and future? Not only will not lose, but will continue to resist Trump as a stumbling block.
This is the real resistance of Trump’s grand plan. Although the two years of ruling, the elite has been able to see Trump’s routine and understand his true thoughts. However, because his gameplay is too fierce, there are extremely high risks and uncertainties, just like putting the country and capital in a gamble that is uncertain. This kind of gameplay may be liked by the small people, but the class attribute of the elite determines that they naturally do not have this desire, and even quite resentful—especially if the situation is sustainable, they can’t expect them to have any motivation. It is.
Based on this logic, no matter how great the ideal of Trump’s ideals, as long as his big action routine remains unchanged, it will be difficult for him to get the true support of the resource controllers, but only in the difficult game. A little bit of fighting to fight, in exchange for the victory you want – or eventually being beaten to the ground, suddenly ended.
This is the number of presidents like Trump who are destined to get rid of!
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So, what should Trump do in the face of this dilemma? Can he fix the elite? Or, in the game with the elite, how much he has a chance of winning?